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November II Discussion


CapturedNature

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Meanwhile, some signs that the Aleutian low anomaly may be trying to develop in the form of lower heights in between Hawaii and the Aleutians. It's at the end of the euro ensemble so the signal is muted...but it is there. In the meantime, it's going to be a big battle across the nrn tier with cold and storminess vs warmer weather I think.

A gradient pattern wouldn't be the worst thing. Is that feature you mentioned something we want too see as we head into December?

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Aleutian low? Yes that is a key look for a good El Nino winter. Hopefully that signals gets better as we get closer.

That's what I thought, thanks.

In a perfect world we would end up on the right side of a gradient as we continued to build towards a possible flip of the switch in mid to late December.

I would rather we yo yo for a while than have straight mild weather for 2-3 weeks

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That's what I thought, thanks.

In a perfect world we would end up on the right side of a gradient as we continued to build towards a possible flip of the switch in mid to late December.

I would rather we yo yo for a while than have straight mild weather for 2-3 weeks

 

We will have some mild wx for sure I think. Maybe no prolonged, but could yo-yo. It will be interesting to see how it shapes up. The tendency has been a warm 11-15 day look gets a lot colder in the 6-10 day period. However, we won't avoid the mild weather totally it appears.

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Early December looks warm...we'll at least see a 4-6 day milder period IMHO...whether we reload quickly or wait a bit longer is up for debate.

 

The ensembles show the pattern starting to reload around Dec 7-8 so we'd probably get cold shotly thereafter...but that is 14-15 days out, so take it with a grain of salt.

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Gotta watch those heights in AK because they have been muting the torch, but this is what I was saying about gradient. It may be north of us for awhile and out in the Rockies as the PNA drops. A lot of moving and shaking regarding all the shifts, but don't be surprised when we talked about it for days.

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I'm thinking we end up with a shortened, muted version of a torch..Sort of like this current one. a day or 2 that could be considered super mild..but of short duration and not a massive torch. There was a time when this whole week was talked about as AN..And that's not counting the Black Friday cutter it had. Just in general it was modeled to be longer and stronger

 

Also snow cover will have to be taken into consideration on muting things as we should have a nice pack over the region

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I'm thinking we end up with a shortened, muted version of a torch..Sort of like this current one. a day or 2 that could be considered super mild..but of short duration and not a massive torch. There was a time when this whole week was talked about as AN..And that's not counting the Black Friday cutter it had. Just in general it was modeled to be longer and stronger

 

Also snow cover will have to be taken into consideration on muting things as we should have a nice pack over the region

In my entire life, I've never seen end to end snowpack form thanksgiving. Not once.

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I'm thinking we end up with a shortened, muted version of a torch..Sort of like this current one. a day or 2 that could be considered super mild..but of short duration and not a massive torch. There was a time when this whole week was talked about as AN..And that's not counting the Black Friday cutter it had. Just in general it was modeled to be longer and stronger

Also snow cover will have to be taken into consideration on muting things as we should have a nice pack over the region

It easily could be several+ days and have some yo-yos. You get the sense of yo-yo looping the models. Sometimes amid the crappy look of the pattern, you get a low that yanks cold down in advance of something coming up from the Ohio River valley and you get overrunning too.

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