40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 6z GEFS are classic, classic Nina. Gradient city. Wonderful. That is actually my hope for December. Leave the el Nino forcing and coastals for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Wonderful. That is actually my hope for December. Leave the el Nino forcing and coastals for January. Of course you could be on the wrong side of the gradient too. LOL. Good to see the cold in Canada though. Reserve troops ready to go when the order comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Of course you could be on the wrong side of the gradient too. LOL. Good to see the cold in Canada though. Reserve troops ready to go when the order comes. I doubt that I would be. Just as climo dictates that I will see hardly any snow during the month of November, it works both ways. It also favors from this latitude points north to be on the colder side of any gradient throughout the month of December. South of the pike it gets more dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I doubt that I would be. Just as climo dictates that I will see hardly any snow during the month of November, it works both ways. It also favors from this latitude points north to be on the colder side of any gradient throughout the month of December. South of the pike it gets more dicey. Well what I mean is that it's possible the gradient lies more across the nrn tier and Plains instead of more BOS-ORD etc. What I like seeing is the trend of getting colder near the day 10 period that continued again last night. Sometimes when you have those higher heights near AK, any low pressure developing and moving nearby will yank the cold down and lay a foundation down along the nrn tier. In the ensemble means, these can be tough to see when you are beyond day 10 given the spread, but usually around day 10 is when you start to see these changes appear as confidence grows in any storm threat. I still think the 11-15 day may be mild..perhaps beyond that, but I would pump the brakes on any real mild wx lasting for a prolonged period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Wonderful. That is actually my hope for December. Leave the el Nino forcing and coastals for January. Saw some 2008 analogs in the data mix, oh how I would love a 3 day Dec storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Wonderful. That is actually my hope for December. Leave the el Nino forcing and coastals for January. Imagine if we got a Dec. '07 Nina-like gradient pattern followed by Nino induced coastals in Jan-Feb-Mar? Your SF forecast could end up too low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Saw some kids fell through ice in Derry nh playing pond hockey. Pretty crazy people are already out on the ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 It sucks..bu 55-60 degree dews to the border are going to destroy quite a bit of that early season snow and fun up there..but it will be replenished quickly...so they won't take a huge hit 55-60 degree dews to Canada?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Saw some kids fell through ice in Derry nh playing pond hockey. Pretty crazy people are already out on the ice Idiots. 3"+ of black ice with several test holes cut is my rule. This is the first time in the 6 winters that we've been at this house that I've seen our beaver pond completely frozen before Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 55-60 degree dews to Canada?!?Unfortunately on Monday for a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The Euro run ...as others have ignored because they don't want to admit it, is absurd looking. Could there be a storm next week after the warm truncates later Tuesday ...sure. Is it going to materialize out of the Euro's dubious handling, I'd like to see THAT happen. At 96 hours, you can clearly see that the southern end of the trough is sloped back SW in a positive tilt ... That is a shearing profile. And it makes sense, because the lead heights over the SE are compressed to within a pube of Terran physical plausibility, and the balanced geostrophic wind is over 100kts there in this run... So there's no room really at all for S/W mechanics to do anything in the flow. Yet, what does the Euro do at D5... it somehow goes poof, like some magical strength engineer, and fabricates all this mechanical power out of no where. The trough ends up negatively tilted with some 40+ units of DPVA. No no no no no. This run is very suspiciously the old D5 Euro zealotry of taking anything vestigial from a given Day 4, and fabricating amplitude ... over selling it's significance. It's not very obvious to the unnoticed observer, either. But that bias about the ECMWF operational run is definitely there; I am not even sure the model does this all over the planet. But it sure as schit does it over North America; particularly east of the Continental Devide. Moreover, I have noticed that its proficiency in fabricating amplitude lies is more noticeable right on that transition from 96 to 120 hours. Anything less than about 108 hours lead (D4.5), the Euro is eerily prescient; anything beyond that, handle with extreme care. That's all well and good, and there most certainly are going to be times when an event has such a dominant physical presence in the atmosphere that most guidance' will sans their bias and hone at extended lead. This week coming is not one of those times. If the high heights over Florida and the compression wasn't there, than I would have less issue with the Euro finding the means to turn a positively sloped, weak wind field curvature all the way around into a negative tilted wet(white) dream just in time to keep the hearts broken for those buckin' for a white turkey day. We'll see how future runs morph that around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 If the GFS is to be believed, the warm Tuesday is in serious trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Saw some kids fell through ice in Derry nh playing pond hockey. Pretty crazy people are already out on the ice fail. I'll admit, I took a couple steps out on my pond this morning. 2.5" of crystal-clear ice with very few inclusions or imperfections is too tempting. I wouldn't chance standing around for any appreciable period of time, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 That euro is 1971esque at same calendar point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 In the woods with the dog now. Nice to see ice on the smaller ponds. Dog is happy...she loves it colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I know you guys have been talking about BUF and how much snow will melt, but check this out from the GFS. Nasty wind potential with that monster low moving through the Lakes. Strong CAA during this time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Well what I mean is that it's possible the gradient lies more across the nrn tier and Plains instead of more BOS-ORD etc. What I like seeing is the trend of getting colder near the day 10 period that continued again last night. Sometimes when you have those higher heights near AK, any low pressure developing and moving nearby will yank the cold down and lay a foundation down along the nrn tier. In the ensemble means, these can be tough to see when you are beyond day 10 given the spread, but usually around day 10 is when you start to see these changes appear as confidence grows in any storm threat. I still think the 11-15 day may be mild..perhaps beyond that, but I would pump the brakes on any real mild wx lasting for a prolonged period of time. I know what you mean. What I mean is odds are that it's just south of me with a negative QBO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Gfs just put people on notice for the mid week storm next week. Huge step towards the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Gfs verbatim is a major snowstorm for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Gfs verbatim is a major snowstorm for most of us. Yup. That would be a doozy. Upgraded gfs isn't nearly as enthused, but I still think what we saw was positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Let's move all of the turkey snow talk to the other thread....thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Man that GFS was gradient city, especially near NE and the nrn tier. Respect the heights near AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Funky cloud in Westminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 A cold November it has been friends. Through 11/21: BOS: -3.2 ORH: -3.5 PVD: -3.5 BDL: -2.5 Here's a stat: The first 21 days of November featured highs under 50 at BOS for 14 of them. The normal max didn't go under 50 until today, 11/22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 A cold November it has been friends. Through 11/21: BOS: -3.2 ORH: -3.5 PVD: -3.5 BDL: -2.5 Here's a stat: The first 21 days of November featured highs under 50 at BOS for 14 of them. The normal max didn't go under 50 until today, 11/22. And yet only -0.9 here in NW VT. Clouds and Great Lakes moisture. And that small departure will be wiped away the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 And yet only -0.9 here in NW VT. Clouds and Great Lakes moisture. And that small departure will be wiped away the next couple of days. Yes but I think Wednesday onward you guys stay pretty cold so you'll probably finish November with a small negative departure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 And the BDL # is a degree too warm due to busted thermo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yes but I think Wednesday onward you guys stay pretty cold so you'll probably finish November with a small negative departure? Yeah I'm thinking slightly negative. Just a glance at some guidance... -6, +5, +12, +7, +3, 0, -4, -6, -7 from today through the end of the month. That's +0.4 over the last 9 days, which should put us at -0.5F or so by the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yeah I'm thinking slightly negative. Just a glance at some guidance... -6, +10, +15, +7, +3, 0, -4, -6, -7 from today through the end of the month. That's +1.3 over the last 9 days, which should put us at -0.2F or so by the 30th. But that's essentially normal. Your negative departures are more difficult thanks to much more wintry climo in mid late November. I mean it's a heckuva lot easier for us in sne with normal max of 50 for the first half of November and even beyond for some to post negatives in the type of regime we've been in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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