WinterWolf Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yep the Aleutian ridge extent northward is key. If it taps into remnant higher heights up N of AK and turns into a decent -EPO/-WPO block, then all bets are off...esp for the northern tier. But if the ridge stays a bit flatter then we could have a milder period that lasts a week to ten days. Impossible to really say at this point. Thus far, the trend this season has been to have higher heights up there so that would make me cautious in calling for any sustained warmth (beyond a few days). We'll see how it goes as we get closer. All we can do. Thank You for such sound and reasonable explanations. Great breakdown, and very logical. As usual, you and a few others like you add so much to this forum. It is appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 lol at all of the different snow related maps on this page. I never knew there were so many categories, such as "Blowing Snow Sublimation" I've seen the main interactive map but never all of this. http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/index.html?year=2014&month=11&day=21&units=e®ion=Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 18z GEFS clusters really concentrate 75% of members on the second wave Thursday night Friday with 25% having a 13km GFS idea of a lakes low that miller B's in Eastern Canada. Just indicates to me something will be in our neck of the woods in the Wed to Fri time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Dew the dews. Too bad it's too breezy tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 18z GEFS clusters really concentrate 75% of members on the second wave Thursday night Friday with 25% having a 13km GFS idea of a lakes low that miller B's in Eastern Canada. Just indicates to me something will be in our neck of the woods in the Wed to Fri time frame. So you thinking the coastline could get in on the snow action. I need to know because my dad plows and we are heading to BUF for Wednesday before Thanksgiving and need to know if its worth going unless we get snow then we have to stay home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Dew the dews. Too bad it's too breezy tonight. Agree. 22/10 but has been dropping painfully slow. Still, not bad for Nov. 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 So you thinking the coastline could get in on the snow action. I need to know because my dad plows and we are heading to BUF for Wednesday before Thanksgiving and need to know if its worth going unless we get snow then we have to stay home.Go to BUF. There's a better chance of Obama and Palin hugging on Christmas this year than plowable snow this Wed on Cape Cod, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Highly doubt QPF is an issue this time. Come on, Scott. It's all about QPF. Agree. 22/10 but has been dropping painfully slow. Still, not bad for Nov. 21st. I don't think the progged 12 will happen. 21.3/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Well Jerry it might not be the snowiest birthday you ever had but it might rival the coldest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 16.5/12. Lowest temp of the season and most likely low for the day. Winter cold. Living room 72F. Wood stove and good insulation ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro is a massive storm at 126 hours. Massive. BOS has marginal temps. Somewhere like Ray and Jerry get buried. PVD-BOS is the extent of warming aloft. Interior NE Ma to ORH and down to Kevin would be fantastic places to be on this run. CCB is over eastern mass, 990mb over the cape. I would take with a grain of salt. I think there is room for this to miss and be too warm for many at this time frame. Verbatim the 0z euro is a foot plus widespread for all of new england, with crosshairs on central and eastern portions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 16.5/12. Lowest temp of the season and most likely low for the day. Winter cold. Living room 72F. Wood stove and good insulation ftw. The draft in my old apartment here in N Andover was obnoxious. They have these old single pane windows, I might have had a 5mph breeze coming through them. I covered them up this week with a window insulation kit from home depot. Huge improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Keep in mind, this storm is literally thanksgiving overnight into thanksgiving morning! Which is pretty awesome. Looks like a cold shot post storm too. Could we keep the snow around for a little while? Can't see full run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 What ray will say 'Worst place I want to be, crosshairs at hour 126' *he is typing now* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro is a massive storm at 126 hours. Massive. BOS has marginal temps. Somewhere like Ray and Jerry get buried. PVD-BOS is the extent of warming aloft. Interior NE Ma to ORH and down to Kevin would be fantastic places to be on this run. CCB is over eastern mass, 990mb over the cape. I would take with a grain of salt. I think there is room for this to miss and be too warm for many at this time frame. Verbatim the 0z euro is a foot plus widespread for all of new england, with crosshairs on central and eastern portions. Too far out to even go here,but I will....where are the mid level lows? Do u have that? Dont look at qpf....that sounds like a MPM to dendrite ccb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Too far out to even go here,but I will....where are the mid level lows? Do u have that? Dont look at qpf....that sounds like a MPM to dendrite ccb Mid levels aren't great. Both 700 and 500 are over our heads. And by 'our' I mean all of SNE. Not just us. 800 is over BOS. That's deform somewhere in the center of SNE. We'd be more CF orientated maxes I think. But that track favors coastal front smoking our locale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 It's kind of a funky look at 5h. I would think surface track more west by looking at mid levels. We'll see. euro op still likes a warmer look to start december I think eventually. a more zonal type of flow it appears later in run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Mid levels aren't great. Both 700 and 500 are over our heads. And by 'our' I mean all of SNE. Not just us. 800 is over BOS. That's deform somewhere in the center of SNE. We'd be more CF orientated maxes I think. But that track favors coastal front smoking our locale. No way do we see a foot of snow out of that scenario. Remember, sst is 50*. Def. flip to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 No way do we see a foot of snow out of that scenario. Remember, sst is 50*. Def. flip to rain. it bombs out the hours before it comes and hits us. temps look good our area. Bos logan and eastern coasts is another story. It would be close, but that euro run definitely looks like all snow for us from what I am looking at. Just looked at it again. It would definitely dump a foot somewhere in the interior. You have to get a look at it yourself. Paste bomb in some spots. Looks fun. Regarding ur SST post... Winds are almost northerly at the height! Could see a scenario where it is an ugly mix to start but we develop heavy heavies once the ccb cranks and we drain out of the north. Definitely doesn't look like onshore winds for us in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Before everyone gets all keyed up and high off a warm early Dec..just remember that Nov was supposed to torch, and all of T giving week was supposed to torch..So far those didn't materialize.As long as the cold is nearby in Canada and the Aleutian setup is the way it is..mild ups and torches will continue to either diminish or disappear entirely I commented that I think we will see more 7+ day mild up projections that do not materialize or will be mitigated. The last week or ten days I think is a sample of how this winter flows. The mild ups may well be pronounced but short lived, the arctic air gets repleshened a lot more frequently then having a high go and sit over Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 it bombs out the hours before it comes and hits us. temps look good our area. Bos logan and eastern coasts is another story. It would be close, but that euro run definitely looks like all snow for us from what I am looking at. Just looked at it again. It would definitely dump a foot somewhere in the interior. You have to get a look at it yourself. Paste bomb in some spots. Looks fun. Regarding ur SST post... Winds are almost northerly at the height! Could see a scenario where it is an ugly mix to start but we develop heavy heavies once the ccb cranks and we drain out of the north. Definitely doesn't look like onshore winds for us in that scenario. That is what has to happen to get a major snowstorm in november this close to the ocean...heavy, heavy ageostrophic component. Anyway, keep it their at 12z, then we'll talk. EURO=$ INSIDE of 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 That is what has to happen to get a major snowstorm in november this close to the ocean...heavy, heavy ageostrophic component. Anyway, keep it their at 12z, then we'll talk. EURO=$ INSIDE of 120 hours. Gonna inbox you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 That is what has to happen to get a major snowstorm in november this close to the ocean...heavy, heavy ageostrophic component. Anyway, keep it their at 12z, then we'll talk. EURO=$ INSIDE of 120 hours. More like 72. I've seen it vomit on itself too any times even at hr 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 18 as I leave for work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Saturday night / Sunday could be interesting with the warm air advection pattern with a low pressure track so far west looks like a cooler maritime Canadian type high pressure system could try to nudge down over New England with freezing drizzle or light mix especially north of the pike. I posted this yesterday without much comment. Taunton now has a special weather statement highlighting the potential for the interior high terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 although looking at the surface progs its not necessarily high pressure building down from Canada but rather residual cold air even as the high builds off the mid-atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 16.5/12. Lowest temp of the season and most likely low for the day. Winter cold. Living room 72F. Wood stove and good insulation ftw. Still haven't put the thermostate above 62. Stoves for the win. But, lack of insulation from 1799 FTL. Flying through the wood. Quite a different day/night in store for today and tonight. Much warmer, maybe a touch of zr. Then a few days to relax with just a light shawl. 15.8/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 12.6F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 19 Last 4 days in my hood -4.8, -14.4, -3.1, - 13.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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