CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 What an awesome November day...waking up to surprise pow dump, then clearing quickly in the afternoon to bluebird. Winter is awesome. Sure is. Summer can eat it. Nice pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Prob about 44-45 avg high I meant average mean. Sorry. Sure is. Summer can eat it. Nice pic. Agree on both. I like the barn more than the picnic tables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Nice what's the rent? in Buffalo if you can't get to the bar they bring it to you. I could picture myself out there getting cocked. FYI its snowing heavy up there in spots again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 in Buffalo if you can't get to the bar they bring it to you. I could picture myself out there getting cocked. FYI its snowing heavy up there in spots again Lots of drinking and sexy time going on I bet. Expect a baby boom late next summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Scooter what are your specific thoughts for early and mid Dec for new eng? I know you are muting any extended warmth or torches. But you think normal or a bit BN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 What an awesome November day...waking up to surprise pow dump, then clearing quickly in the afternoon to bluebird. Winter is awesome. Yeah Mueslix before bed will do that for you -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Lots of drinking and sexy time going on I bet. Expect a baby boom late next summer. LOl yep, what else can you do. that vid of Buffalo walking down his street today is cool, looks like a lot of people haven't even bothered to shovel. Holy compaction, 6 inches W/E in 35 inches of snow, damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Yeah Mueslix before bed will do that for you -- LOL 24.7/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Scooter..i think you meant Monday could be into the 60's with shorts..Tuesday the front is already thru and temps 50's and falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Scooter..i think you meant Monday could be into the 60's with shorts..Tuesday the front is already thru and temps 50's and falling I think Tuesday could really overperform in terms of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Scooter what are your specific thoughts for early and mid Dec for new eng? I know you are muting any extended warmth or torches. But you think normal or a bit BN? Well I'm still thinking we could get Into a milder period sometime in the first week. Models have gained traction on that idea. What I'm not sold on is the depth and longevity of it, especially around our area. The overall pattern does support the chance of milder wx. However, if they underestimate the higher heights north of AK, then we certainly will mute any milder weather. This whole thing seems to be driven by convection in the IO. That will shift east so I'm thinking after mid month is when we may see changes to more winter wx perhaps. So I guess my whole idea is maybe N to a little AN to start December. That idea hasn't really changed. I certainly don't have high confidence either. I'm well aware of busts on either side, but that's my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I think Tuesday could really overperform in terms of warmth. It does appear that the cooler air arrives pretty slowly. NW Mass and the NW corner of CT maybe on the cooler side, but I suspect the remainder of CT, particularly east of the river will be on the mild side. Of course, at this time frame I think it's pretty 'shot in the dark' with respect to that level of detail. My take nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I think Tuesday could really overperform in terms of warmth. Agreed. I have 61 as my number for BDL, although we don't do exact #'s on the site so it goes in as upper 50s to lower 60s. All you need is for the front to get delayed a little bit, which most of them usually do, and you've got a shorts and sandals surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I'll go with 56 at BDL falling into 40's in later afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 So I found a couple of Tip's friends just now at DD. They were slapping high fives and chucking discs around the parking lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Lots of drinking and sexy time going on I bet. Expect a baby boom late next summer. I would just be out playing in it and doing bong hits of dendrites until my toes were numb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I like HMs ideas, pattern is 3 weeks ahead of 03. That would put the end of Dec 03 torch in Scooters time frame for AN, then hammer time, in time for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I like HMs ideas, pattern is 3 weeks ahead of 03. That would put the end of Dec 03 torch in Scooters time frame for AN, then hammer time, in time for Christmas Well today's ensemble guidance has certainly milded up in the first week of December. I hope the 2003-04 evolution stops. That was a miserable winter for many of us. Ballz cold and bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Well today's ensemble guidance has certainly milded up in the first week of December. I hope the 2003-04 evolution stops. That was a miserable winter for many of us. Ballz cold and bone dry.Highly doubt QPF is an issue this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 03-04 was my #1 analog for this winter, so glad to hear that from HM. That reminds me, don't think I ever posted my winter forecast here, so : http://www.southernconnecticutweather.com/forecasters-discussion/the-2014-2015-southern-connecticut-weather-winter-forecast I like HMs ideas, pattern is 3 weeks ahead of 03.That would put the end of Dec 03 torch in Scooters time frame for AN, then hammer time, in time for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I like HMs ideas, pattern is 3 weeks ahead of 03. That would put the end of Dec 03 torch in Scooters time frame for AN, then hammer time, in time for Christmas The way I see it is this: Nino Decembers are usually a wildcard, but cold/snow chances really start to increase going forward. Therefore, anything we get between now and the end of December is a bonus. If we happened to get an average or above average December in terms of SF, then I think we're off to the races and Ray's forecast could very well verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Well ironically any possible mild weather to start December is completely from a La Niña like pattern and not Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I think Tuesday could really overperform in terms of warmth. Yeah post-frontal mixing on Southwest flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Highly doubt QPF is an issue this time. Yeah it doesn't make alot of sense given what we have on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Before everyone gets all keyed up and high off a warm early Dec..just remember that Nov was supposed to torch, and all of T giving week was supposed to torch..So far those didn't materialize.As long as the cold is nearby in Canada and the Aleutian setup is the way it is..mild ups and torches will continue to either diminish or disappear entirely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Before everyone gets all keyed up and high off a warm early Dec..just remember that Nov was supposed to torch, and all of T giving week was supposed to torch..So far those didn't materialize.As long as the cold is nearby in Canada and the Aleutian setup is the way it is..mild ups and torches will continue to either diminish or disappear entirely Wanted to hit the "like" button! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTSPOTTER REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY152 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014THE FOLLOWING ARE WEEK LONG SNOW TOTALS FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHFRIDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES BOTH ROUNDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWTHAT IMPACTED THE REGION.********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTSSNOWFALL OF/INCHES/ MEASUREMENTNEW YORK..CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY1 WNW FREDONIA 22.7 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHS4 SSW RIPLEY 10.4 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHSKENNEDY 7.0 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHS..ERIE COUNTY1 N HAMBURG 79.5 1100 AM 11/21 NWS EMPLOYEEWEST SENECA 78.0 1100 AM 11/21 TRAINED SPOTTERLANCASTER 74.0 1100 AM 11/21 NWS EMPLOYEE2 NNE ORCHARD PARK 71.0 1100 AM 11/21 NWS EMPLOYEEWALES CENTER 69.3 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHS2 SSW BLASDELL 61.0 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHS4 NW ALDEN 57.5 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHSCOLDEN 55.1 1100 AM 11/21 COOP OBSERVER3 S WEST SENECA 52.5 1100 AM 11/21 NWS EMPLOYEE2 NE BOSTON 48.0 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHSAKRON 26.7 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHS2 SE GLENWOOD 26.3 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHSNY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 16.9 1100 AM 11/21 ASOS3 ESE TONAWANDA 7.9 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHSKENMORE 6.8 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHS1 N CLARENCE CENTER 5.5 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHS..GENESEE COUNTYCORFU 49.0 1100 AM 11/21 AMATEUR RADIOSTAFFORD 17.7 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHS..JEFFERSON COUNTYCARTHAGE 33.4 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHSTHERESA 27.5 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHSWATERTOWN 24.7 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHS..LEWIS COUNTYHIGHMARKET 28.6 1100 AM 11/21 COOP OBSERVER5 SSW HARRISVILLE 27.8 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHS1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE 27.5 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHSBEAVER FALLS 18.5 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHSGLENFIELD 9.3 1100 AM 11/21 COOP OBSERVER..MONROE COUNTYROCHESTER INTL ARPT 9.3 1100 AM 11/21 ASOS..NIAGARA COUNTY5 NNE AMHERST 8.5 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHS1 NNE NORTH TONAWAND 4.9 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHS1 NE LOCKPORT 4.6 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHSNIAGARA FALLS 4.6 1100 AM 11/21 COOP OBSERVERYOUNGSTOWN 3.7 1100 AM 11/21 COOP OBSERVER..OSWEGO COUNTY8 NNW REDFIELD 29.0 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHS5 ESE OSWEGO 13.1 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHSBENNETTS BRIDGE 9.0 1100 AM 11/21 COOP OBSERVERMINETTO 5.0 1100 AM 11/21 COCORAHSPALERMO 2.0 1100 AM 11/21 COOP OBSERVER..WYOMING COUNTYCOWLESVILLE 88.0 1100 AM 11/21 AMATEUR RADIOWYOMING 63.0 1100 AM 11/21 COOP OBSERVERWARSAW 28.8 1100 AM 11/21 COOP OBSERVERHere is a pretty detailed list of all the snow reports...Check out Cowlesvill with 88 inches!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It is an exaggeration to say that all of T-day week was supposed to torch and an even worse one to say all of November was. It did look like early November would be a torch for a time in late October. But it became apparent that would not materialize in the final few days of October. Secondly, the current 3 day warmup was actually modeled pretty well. There was some ambiguity on what might happen after Wednesday but it never looked like a straight torch all week..most runs have always had T-day itself as cold. For a time it looked like we may get a cutter on Black Friday but that only lasted a couple runs. I'm not saying this to support the idea that December will torch early on, but no need for the hyperbole. It has been mentioned many times already how the recent 10-15 ensembles have been flip flopping quite a bit post T-day and now into early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It is an exaggeration to say that all of T-day week was supposed to torch and an even worse one to say all of November was. It did look like early November would be a torch for a time in late October. But it became apparent that would not materialize in the final few days of October. Secondly, the current 3 day warmup was actually modeled pretty well. There was some ambiguity on what might happen after Wednesday but it never looked like a straight torch all week..most runs have always had T-day itself as cold. For a time it looked like we may get a cutter on Black Friday but that only lasted a couple runs. I'm not saying this to support the idea that December will torch early on, but no need for the hyperbole. It has been mentioned many times already how the recent 10-15 ensembles have been flip flopping quite a bit post T-day and now into early December. It does seem as if the beginning of December is going to have a mild period with more of an Aleutian Ridge and the strengthening of the Pacific Jet. Almost looks like a Nina with -20C to -30C 850s covering Canada, but little of that cold air south of the border...the greatest anomalies look to be in the Southeast where 850s approach +10C on the LR GFS. That block north of AK is varying a lot on long range modeling though, and that might really be key here...we have to determine the strength of that feature and its exact placement as it seems like part of the Aleutian High tries to break off and give us some colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 It does seem as if the beginning of December is going to have a mild period with more of an Aleutian Ridge and the strengthening of the Pacific Jet. Almost looks like a Nina with -20C to -30C 850s covering Canada, but little of that cold air south of the border...the greatest anomalies look to be in the Southeast where 850s approach +10C on the LR GFS. That block north of AK is varying a lot on long range modeling though, and that might really be key here...we have to determine the strength of that feature and its exact placement as it seems like part of the Aleutian High tries to break off and give us some colder air. Yep the Aleutian ridge extent northward is key. If it taps into remnant higher heights up N of AK and turns into a decent -EPO/-WPO block, then all bets are off...esp for the northern tier. But if the ridge stays a bit flatter then we could have a milder period that lasts a week to ten days. Impossible to really say at this point. Thus far, the trend this season has been to have higher heights up there so that would make me cautious in calling for any sustained warmth (beyond a few days). We'll see how it goes as we get closer. All we can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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