SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Just like 00z it's another 2-4 type snow for interior and rain to snow on coast 0z verbatim was quite a bit more than 2-4" for the interior and this is probably more like 1-2" interior after rain for all to start, maybe someone verifies 2.1" but I don't see widespread 2-4" if that's how this actually played out. I'm sure we'll see another solution at 0z though, just good to consistently see the signal and not bad setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Just like 00z it's another 2-4 type snow for interior and rain to snow on coast The 2nd coastal scrapes you guys too. Odd euro run with the missed phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The 00z was actually a lot juicier than this run. It was a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Euro - lol. wtf is it doing? Oh boy, looks like it's taking the energy that gets left behind from the first one and trying to pop a miller B with it at hour 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Just like 00z it's another 2-4 type snow for interior and rain to snow on coast Terrible model analysis as always. Leave it to people who are actually looking at the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Euro looks a tick more progressive than 00z. Not really much different, but still underwhelming. Should we toss, Kev? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The 00z was actually a lot juicier than this run. It was a bit slower. Yeah - 00z was closer to the coast and stronger. The follow up nor'easter on Friday is much closer to the coast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Yeah - 00z was closer to the coast and stronger. The follow up nor'easter on Friday is much closer to the coast now. Nice little nuke on Black Friday for SE CT/RI/E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Always someone who takes the bait He knows all of this. I guess Tip took the bait too, and a few others lol, I wasn't the only one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Terrible model analysis as always. Leave it to people who are actually looking at the models.And again you butt in with nothing of substance. It's verbatim a few inches of wet snow inland and rain ending as snow on coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 And again you butt in with nothing of substance. It's verbatim a few inches of wet snow inland and rain ending as snow on coast Dude - you didn't even look at the run. It's not that similar to 00z at all. I know you piece together what mets say on here and on twitter and then come up with your own analysis instead of actually looking - so it may be a good idea to wait until there are a few posts on the matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 And again you butt in with nothing of substance. It's verbatim a few inches of wet snow inland and rain ending as snow on coastBased off of what? 12z Euro didn't show that. Even the weenie snow maps show nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Second event ends up as a scraper/light event, maybe SE areas pick up an inch or two(EDIT: It's more than an inch or two, several inches probably), but it's not far off from showing something much more interesting. Interested to see what the ens show, at 0z it was a probably 2 to 1 split in favor of focusing on the first wave for those that did have an event(around half to 2/3rds I'd guess), wonder if we see that tick more towards the second event. Regardless, should be an interesting weekend of model watching and who knows, maybe we pull something out of it? Keep expectations low and you won't be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Well since the lead wave was much faster this run, it had a bit weaker of a surface reflection since it didn't interact as much with the trailing energy and GL trough. However, once that got out of the way, it led to much more room for the trailing energy and GL trough to phase and generate a Miller B on its own. Since the 00z Euro originally had more phasing, the baroclinic zone was way too far east for a secondary Miller B. We either need the lead wave to slow down like it did on 00z for the original threat, or for it to get out of the way faster for a Miller B on Thanksgiving evening. This is all assuming the general setup holds its course days 5-7, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I guess Tip took the bait too, and a few others lol, I wasn't the only one. Yea, I don't see why folks bother at this point. It (he) is what it (he) is. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 And again you butt in with nothing of substance. It's verbatim a few inches of wet snow inland and rain ending as snow on coast No, it's not. I can't post the maps here because it's against site policies to post paid maps, but the first event is rain to maybe an inch or two(maybe) or so interior and pretty much all rain on the coastline, maybe a slushy coating at the end. It's got potential, but verbatim, it's meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Based off of what? 12z Euro didn't show that. Even the weenie snow maps show nothing at all. Light rates plus warm sfc temps = fail Though the mid-levels are pretty cold (like -4C to -6C at 850mb) so I'd bet the sfc would be a bit colder than it shows verbatim...but we have a long time still to care too much about the details anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Well since the lead wave was much faster this run, it had a bit weaker of a surface reflection since it didn't interact as much with the trailing energy and GL trough. However, once that got out of the way, it led to much more room for the trailing energy and GL trough to phase and generate a Miller B on its own. Since the 00z Euro originally had more phasing, the baroclinic zone was way too far east for a secondary Miller B. We either need the lead wave to slow down like it did on 00z for the original threat, or for it to get out of the way faster for a Miller B on Thanksgiving evening. This is all assuming the general setup holds its course days 5-7, of course. The ensemble members on the GFS and Euro had a tremendous amount of spread with which wave to amplify. Some Wednesday, some Thursday, and a couple on Friday. Unfortunately it's going to take some time to figure out which s/w is going to be the one to really watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Yet another storm trying to organize by Saturday, what a weenie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Whee. Opinions are like arsholes. Everybody has one. The fun has begun. Great active period of as the models change along with emotional swings. Shocking that a CF reference has yet to be mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The ensemble members on the GFS and Euro had a tremendous amount of spread with which wave to amplify. Some Wednesday, some Thursday, and a couple on Friday. Unfortunately it's going to take some time to figure out which s/w is going to be the one to really watch. Yeah, I noticed that. Without anything in the Atlantic to slow this down, it's possible that none of them can truly amplify. But with the pretty good-looking PNA and some energy in the Great Lakes, I suppose we can thread the needle. The fact that the 2nd wave on the Euro was able to amplify as much as it did on the heels of the lead wave certainly illustrates some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Whee. Opinions are like arsholes. Everybody has one. The fun has begun. Great active period of as the models change along with emotional swings. Shocking that a CF reference has yet to be mentioned. Too early....if there is a cf anywhere near me for the next couple of weeks, then I'm in trouble because its rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Yeah, I noticed that. Without anything in the Atlantic to slow this down, it's possible that none of them can truly amplify. But with the pretty good-looking PNA and some energy in the Great Lakes, I suppose we can thread the needle. The fact that the 2nd wave on the Euro was able to amplify as much as it did on the heels of the lead wave certainly illustrates some potential. This reminds me of last year....watching the same movie over and over, knowing how it will end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I'm gonna be the Debbie and say not much if anything happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I may be seeing more flakes from the flurries going by here today than I do come Thanksgiving/couple says after. Just sayin'...... 27.1/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 70 on Tuesday if we dryslot. Let the frisbees fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Torchilicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Some sort of secondary boundary came thru over the last hour and dropped the temp from 30 down to 27.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 We went from a torched holiday week..to 1-2 mild days with clouds and rain and 2 and possibly 3 snow events over the next 10 days and a cold holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Shorts on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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