CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 This would be a living hell for me at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I'd be shocked if the new GFS didn't show a huge storm just judging on the H5 orientation. It's going to phase in part of the ULL over the GL and tuck the storm right near the 40/70 or maybe inside of it based on the jet orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Lol...driving through tolland Wednesday en route to Princeton in snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 This would be a living hell for me at work. Me too. Last day of November ratings too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 GFS parallel is a big storm near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I'd be shocked if the new GFS didn't show a huge storm just judging on the H5 orientation. It's going to phase in part of the ULL over the GL and tuck the storm right near the 40/70 or maybe inside of it based on the jet orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 OP GFS 12z not far off now either. Came in much more impressive w/ the trailing vort sneaking through the Plains at 102 hr http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f120.gif Flow is much more meridional than it was on 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 GFS parallel is a big storm near the BM. What did the diagonal GFS say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The past several GEFS runs have definitely shown this gradient pattern with high heights in the south and plenty of cold in Canada as we head towards December. But we might see some NW flow in the Plains, which is def not a torch pattern and we'd get into the cold at times. The superanalogs don't show that, but the 00z and 06z GEFS did. Plus as others have said there is still ridging in some of the EPO regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Flow is much more meridional than it was on 06z. Much more stout ridge out west, than previous runs. The Euro picked up this last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 What did the diagonal GFS say? LOL, I hate saying new GFS. Should say 13km one I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Ironically December 2009 had a swfe. I had to be at MHT and it dumped 9 inches there, maybe 2 at BOS. I think it was 12/9/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 We still don't get complete phase on GFS Para. Some ULL energy still hanging back over Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 We still don't get complete phase on GFS Para. Some ULL energy still hanging back over Carolinas. Yep, with no blocking it will be hard for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 New GFS.. me like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 We still don't get complete phase on GFS Para. Some ULL energy still hanging back over Carolinas. This is why it's a thread the needle. Complete phase would flood us with warmth I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 We still don't get complete phase on GFS Para. Some ULL energy still hanging back over Carolinas. It was fine, the only thing that could have been better would be if the 500mb low closed off over the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Perpendicular GFS is tepid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 New GFS.. me like That is about a perect evoloution for you and me. +ppp in Canada, too. Hello Tday 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Perpendicular GFS is tepid I think the actual event will be tepid, but this run certainly is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 This is why it's a thread the needle. Complete phase would flood us with warmth I think. The good thing is that every other piece of guidance is LESS amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Lol...driving through tolland Wednesday en route to Princeton in snow With good Ens support and op models latching on..it appears there's a real chance of cutting the bird decorated by a mantle of white outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 All this parallel gfs talk gives me vertigo. Me confused. OP gfs, the regular run, is close for a white carving. Get you Xmas lights up early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The 00z operational Euro was very precariously close to a fuller phase and the differences in sensible impact from the N. M/A to NE regions would be immense for D6'ish. This event (or lack there of..) was heavily hinted yesterday; tho for me it was less impressively support in the tele/mass field observations... The trick there is to remember ...that's "modeled", not what's actually going to happen. Heh, the rub - Anyway, the Euro's correction for that particular time range is flatter usually... That doesn't lend much to support a more phased result. I am not sure what goes into the "parallel" run of the GFS (hoping it is not the "paranormal" run!), but upon seeing it's BM sort of text-book looking moderate cold profiled nor'easter, does give some nod back to that precarious appeal. I suppose that just because a model has a noted bias ... doesn't mean the bias applies at all times. So yeah, lots of moving part in the philosophy for that mid-extended range currently. It's akin to transition season, which I am still seeing an abundance of larger mass-field discontinuities ...obviously not lending to forecaster confidence at any temporality beyond a couple days. By the way, I don't see any mode shift away from a cold N/A regime... The warm-up for a couple days early this week is "relaxed" in character. I'm seeing a huge amount of cold charging/dump off an -EPO that quite frankly looks akin to much of what took place last winter. In fact, the NP is clearly supporting the -EPO, as it has since last December. (PDO related? interesting question...). Whatever, the CDC monitoring of the teles have the WP relay into the EPO quite indicative of higher latitude ridge nodes and subsequent hemispheric cold conveyors seem likelier. So seeing the operational guidance loading the Can shield with large spatially involved sub -20C 850s appears reasonably well correlated. Cold, period. This may have been covered -- I haven't had the time to languish in 50 pages of posting as of late... But that warmth is probably more aligned with the fact that at temperate latitudes, ...it pretty much can't stay hot or cold biased all the time, and less symptom of a mode change. 'Sides, we always had an expression at school that seemed to work better than 50% of the time: When the baseline is cold, and it tries to get warm, BOOM... So, clearly our resting state is colder (relative to the longer term warm climate; but that's a different discussion); any balm injected in may precede a restoring event (pseudo Archembaultian). In short, chilly, balmy, back to chilly, look for Thanks Giving week event. Also, I don't see that -PNA as a major disruption giving to the -WP/-EPO over top. If anything, that visualizes storminess because you're cold loading continues and the Pac might inject dynamics in the means, coming through the west underneath. peace! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Whatever happened to a warm turkey day? That certainly looks like a big model fail now. Muted warmth, the trend since like late summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 That is about a perect evoloution for you and me. +ppp in Canada, too. Hello Tday 1989. its shown up on models for days so good to see its evolving more significant Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The GGEM cuts the system to Chicago. Should have the GEFS mean soon. What? That's just the parent low associated w/ the Great Lakes ULL. The main vort goes way offshore on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The GGEM cuts the system to Chicago. Should have the GEFS mean soon. ??? GGEM looks like a whiff wide right, I don't think its physically possible to cut this to Chicago in this longwave pattern: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 GEFS mean is well offshore My bad on the GGEM, I was looking in the wrong place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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