ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 GEFS for D11 analogs.... Welcome to La Nina to start December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 LOL ENSO what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I like it. Dump the cold in Canada and then unleash it when PNA rises. That's the hope anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I like it. Dump the cold in Canada and then unleash it when PNA rises. That's the hope anyways. It wouldn't be the worst pattern for us anyway in early December...we can get an event out of that. Spill one of those frigid airmasses over the top and then get an OH Valley runner driving into it...we'll party like it's 2007 or 2008 (or like 1970/1971). I'm sure the details will change a bit though as we get closer. But yeah, I do like the frigid look in Canada...that could unleash a really extreme cold pattern when the Aleutian low reloads. It will be very interesting to watch how that progression goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It wouldn't be the worst pattern for us anyway in early December...we can get an event out of that. Spill one of those frigid airmasses over the top and then get an OH Valley runner driving into it...we'll party like it's 2007 or 2008 (or like 1970/1971). I'm sure the details will change a bit though as we get closer. But yeah, I do like the frigid look in Canada...that could unleash a really extreme cold pattern when the Aleutian low reloads. It will be very interesting to watch how that progression goes. Oh yeah, it could lead to SWFE. You can't read into those height anomalies over us this time of year since cold easily undercuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Yes, please. SWFE December as a nice segue in a Miller B barrage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 LOL ENSO what? This is the perfect scenario. La Nina December, followed by an el Nino tenor to the mid winter regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Does it look likely that the Aleutian low will reload? Is what we are seeing the dreaded black hole over the Bering Sea? Why the La Nina look without La Nina? I'm looking for scientific info 101 for dummies. I know the Bering sea low isn't good if it becomes a fixture and that La Nina's aren't often our friend, but I also know that this is not a La Nina year. I'm interested in understanding why it seems pretty clear that the image above is not likely the pattern that will be (for a very extended period of time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 This is the perfect scenario. La Nina December, followed by an el Nino tenor to the mid winter regime. this, I would welcome it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 That pattern really produced up here 2007/2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Oh yeah, it could lead to SWFE. You can't read into those height anomalies over us this time of year since cold easily undercuts. Yep...just as an exmaple...Dec 2007 height anomalies: Dec 2007 temperatures: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Does it look likely that the Aleutian low will reload? Is what we are seeing the dreaded black hole over the Bering Sea? Why the La Nina look without La Nina? I'm looking for scientific info 101 for dummies. I know the Bering sea low isn't good if it becomes a fixture and that La Nina's aren't often our friend, but I also know that this is not a La Nina year. I'm interested in understanding why it seems pretty clear that the image above is not likely the pattern that will be (for a very extended period of time) MJO phase is likely pushing the La nina pattern...it won't be permanent...the El Nino look will come back. It is a temporary forcing. I'm not sure where you see a huge Bering vortex...the map I posted has a big positive height anomaly right over the Bering from the poleward Aleutian ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Well we have a lot of higher heights of N of AK...that leads to a lot of cold spilling over into Canada and eventually down into the northern tier of the U.S. It's kind of the opposite of when we have a death vortex up there....when there is a big vortex, the cold shots tend to underperform in length and intensity or disappear altogether on models as we get closer...you hear it all the time in those types of winters when weenies say "cold is always 10 days away, it never gets any closer". This is kind of the opposite. The warmth doesn't tend to materialize as storng as advertised or disappears altogether when we get closer or is shorter in length. After this 3 day warmup early next week, that is the type of regime we seem to be settling into. It's not a flat out frigid pattern, but one that would favor cold over warmth. However, one major caveat you have to remember is this is assuming the depiction N of AK in the extended is correct....the extended has been terribly inconsistent recently. The one feature that has been more consistent is higher heights up there, so there's a bit more confidence that part might be right....but still take everything with a grain of salt for now beyond D8-9. I think in a case like this you can give it a little more credence because the atumnal atmospheric indicators have all favored higher heights INVO AK this winter in the seasonal mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 MJO phase is likely pushing the La nina pattern...it won't be permanent...the El Nino look will come back. It is a temporary forcing. I'm not sure where you see a huge Bering vortex...the map I posted has a big positive height anomaly right over the Bering from the poleward Aleutian ridge. I evidently misread the height anamoly as a vortex! Goes to show you where I am on the learning curve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Does it look likely that the Aleutian low will reload? Is what we are seeing the dreaded black hole over the Bering Sea? Why the La Nina look without La Nina? I'm looking for scientific info 101 for dummies. I know the Bering sea low isn't good if it becomes a fixture and that La Nina's aren't often our friend, but I also know that this is not a La Nina year. I'm interested in understanding why it seems pretty clear that the image above is not likely the pattern that will be (for a very extended period of time) Take a look at the 324 threads we have set up over the course of the atumn for monitoring crucial atmospheric indicators and you tell me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 That pattern really produced up here 2007/2008 Its great for Decemeber here, ok for the entirety of the season. This pattern produces my most prolific Decembers, actually.....not saying it will last for the whole month, but just to provide some perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 5.25" since 6am, dumping. 12" on the ground at 1500ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Its great for Decemeber here, ok for the entirety of the season. This pattern produces my most prolific Decembers, actually.....not saying it will last for the whole month, but just to provide some perspective. Hopefully we can luck our way into a decent SWFE pattern for the first half of December and then we reload the Aleutian ridge back into El Nino climo. That would be the ideal scenario for us as you already laid out. Of course, we could also just whiff on that pattern too...kind of like the first half of Dec 2008 (sans the ice storm) before we got blitzed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 5.25" since 6am, dumping. 12" on the ground at 1500ft. OTG or total? I assume OTG is what you meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 OTG or total? I assume OTG is what you meant.OTG...I slacked and can't confirm what fell prior to 6am. I had my buddy throw the snowstake out when he arrived this morning haha.It sounds like there was a couple inches prior too. I'd bet 7" at 1500ft is the total so far. I was closing in on 3" with almost 6" OTG at home an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 OTG...I slacked and can't confirm what fell prior to 6am. I had my buddy throw the snowstake out when he arrived this morning haha. It sounds like there was a couple inches prior too. I'd bet 7" at 1500ft is the total so far. I was closing in on 3" with almost 6" OTG at home an hour ago. Sweet. Sucks it rains Monday, but it should be back for good shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 A fair amount of ensemble support for "something" next Wednesday/Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 A fair amount of ensemble support for "something" next Wednesday/Thursday. OP GFS 12z not far off now either. Came in much more impressive w/ the trailing vort sneaking through the Plains at 102 hr http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 OP GFS 12z not far off now either. Came in much more impressive w/ the trailing vort sneaking through the Plains at 102 hr http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f120.gif This storm would be an epic cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 This storm would be an epic cluster. I can almost see the headlines now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 This storm would be an epic cluster. In terms of impacts, yeah, it would be a disaster. I feel like you almost have to be a little aggressive in a situation like this when there's a ton of people that are going to have their travel plans ruined and maybe start talking on Saturday night/Sunday to hopefully have a map Monday instead of waiting until Monday for deets and Tuesdaynfor a map which is more traditional(details 3 days out with a first call 48 hours before usually). As of right now it's nothing, but if guidance over the next few cycles becomes more aggressive, you've got to start getting the word out that it's a possibility IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 OP GFS 12z not far off now either. Came in much more impressive w/ the trailing vort sneaking through the Plains at 102 hr http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f120.gif If only we had a decent 50/50 low, it would help alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The parallel GFS looks like it will come in way more amplified. This should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 GEFS for D11 analogs.... Welcome to La Nina to start December. wouldnt this give us swfe opportunities? and miller bs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 GFS is a scraper for E New England...we'll see how the ensembles keep trending. They haven't been overly excited, though the Euro ensembles did tick a hair west last night. This storm is still like 5.5 days out, lol. I feel like we've been semi-tracking it for about a week already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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