CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The MJO will slowly move through the IO and then Indonesia and WPAC over the next 2 weeks. You can see this through the 200mb wind anomalies and also via what they call velocity potential anomalies. That helps give rise to ridging in the Aleutians as well. That should slowly move east and help pump up heights in the EPAC towards mid December. At least in theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Any tweets about prolonged warmth in the east may be a little premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The few warm Dec forecasts out there from long range guys look to be in trouble. Just like what happened in NOV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The few warm Dec forecasts out there from long range guys look to be in trouble. Just like what happened in NOVDepends where. We will know in about a week I think or at least have a better idea. Don't spike the ball yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 off the weatherbell site,the European ensemble prediction system has a 30 to 40 percent chance of snow fall greater than 3 inches between hours: 144 and 168 across portions of the interior of southern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Depends where. We will know in about a week I think or at least have a better idea. Don't spike the ball yet. Yeah if the Aleutian ridge dominates well into December then we can have a warm east and only the northern plains and Midwest is cold. Doesn't mean we have a horrible month but we saw this in December 2008. That was a volatile but snowy month for us (and the huge ORH county ice storm) but it was a bit above avg for temps. It was cold tho in Midwest and plains. I do think the heights this time around look better N of AK than a pattern like that so if favor a bit colder. But you are def right that it's way too early to be calling out warm December forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 actually it looks more like 20 to 30 percent probability of greater than 3 inches of snow between hours: 144 and 168.the color shading can be a little bit confusing on the maps sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Also looks like in the 11-15 day the Aleutian and Scandanavian ridges hook up over the pole so possibly more evidence to go against a warm up lasting for more than 3 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I should also add that it will probably be difficult to hold onto an Aleutian ridge most of the month given the background ENSO state and the likely MJO progression. We'll probably see the Aleutian low reload Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I should also add that it will probably be difficult to hold onto an Aleutian ridge most of the month given the background ENSO state and the likely MJO progression. We'll probably see the Aleutian low reload That's what I hope. Maybe after mid month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I should also add that it will probably be difficult to hold onto an Aleutian ridge most of the month given the background ENSO state and the likely MJO progression. We'll probably see the Aleutian low reload Well said. All eyes will be on the Atlantic side as well. The NAO really hasnt been cooperative as of late. Hopefully that changes In a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Note to yourself, use the vaca...it's good for you. For now, 10 days of weenieing is ok. Beginning last year, I've started doing some reassessment of things leading me to doing my best not to miss out on any vacation time. For years, I'd end up forfeiting time because it's always been easy to 'answer the work call'. I'm not getting any younger and in my mid-life I am recognizing as Jackson Browne did that 'in the end is it all a blink of an eye'. So f*ck it, I'm taking as much of it as I possible can. I get four weeks/year at this point with up to two weeks carrying over. I'm scrambling to get the balance of my four weeks this year and roll two more forward to next. Bottom line is I'll be off for much of the remainder of the year, ftw. Meanwhile, sitting at Townfair getting my wife's snows put on now. A reminder that some time soon we will have snow on the ground. Weenie hopes abound for next week. 22.9/13 So, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Nov, nuff said lol. Slowly creeping south. Day After Tomorrow winter enroute. Everyone prepare to escape to Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Poof from BUF BY MONDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING TOWARDS 60 DEGREES WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TOUPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OFTHE SNOWPACK TO MELT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Nov, nuff said Another surprise last night and this morning...another plowable snowfall. Here's my yard right now... Here's the mountain with what I've been told may be close to another foot that fell last night...(Greg Petrics photo). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Poof from BUF BY MONDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING TOWARDS 60 DEGREES WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOWPACK TO MELT. I highly doubt that 8 feet of snow will all be gone by Monday. Unless theyre talking about the city itself then ya for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 That's not gonna all melt in hardest hit areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 That's not gonna all melt in hardest hit areas. Yeah not with like 4-5" of QPF content in the hardest hit areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Yeah not with like 4-5" of QPF content in the hardest hit areas. It'll end up giving 18" of glacier once it refreezes in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Another surprise last night and this morning...another plowable snowfall. Here's my yard right now... IMG_4560_edited-1-1.jpg Here's the mountain with what I've been told may be close to another foot that fell last night...(Greg Petrics photo). seriously why would you be surprised, you have to expect these types of airmasses with that trajectory to produce everytime. I would be more surprised if it didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Yeah not with like 4-5" of QPF content in the hardest hit areas. I was surprised to read that AFD, totally disagree but they know their climo well I guess, if 5-7 WE disappears in 3 days with an inch of liquid, well that would be something to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It'll end up giving 18" of glacier once it refreezes in those areas. That might an outcome, stuff that lasts until l March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It's not all going to go, but between compaction, sublimation, and melting it'll take a beating. I still have plans to turn VT into a giant lake. Maybe some of NE NY too. I may have to raise W NH up a bit to preserve my CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Poof from BUF BY MONDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING TOWARDS 60 DEGREES WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOWPACK TO MELT. Easy come, easy go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 That might an outcome, stuff that lasts until l March Yeah, I'd be surprised if everything went. I think they just meant in general but it would be REALLY hard to evaporate that much water, especially from sheltered or wind blown areas. Even in 1888 it took over a month to melt all that and that was with March sunlight/conditions. The sad thing is that you have to put all that effort into clearing things and then to get a big warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I was surprised to read that AFD, totally disagree but they know their climo well I guess, if 5-7 WE disappears in 3 days with an inch of liquid, well that would be something to see.Its not the rain.. It's the roaring south winds and high Dews that are going to take their toll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Poof from BUF BY MONDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING TOWARDS 60 DEGREES WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOWPACK TO MELT. The parking lot piles might be there til May. Hard to imagine 70 inches of snow melting during a few warm days too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The parking lot piles might be there til May. Hard to imagine 70 inches of snow melting during a few warm days too.A couple of Lakes cutters and its torch city. They don't know what CAD is in W NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 You have to remember that most of BUF's CWA has way less snow than the pics we saw. In those narrow zones that got 5-6 feet of snow, they won't lose all their pack from 2-3 days of warmth. But the rest of the region that got much less will lose their pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The parking lot piles might be there til May. Hard to imagine 70 inches of snow melting during a few warm days too. Areas with 5 to 6 feet will not. And what they lose Sat thru Mon will be replenished by the middle and end of next week. Poof it will reappear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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