CT Valley Snowman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Starting to see more persistence here with the Euro Op. Too early to get overly excited with a marginal temp profile and lack of modeling agreement but nevertheless noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Personally a couple inches of paste would be fine by me. A big heavy hitter would disrupt many Holiday plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Pretty warm in the 11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 There's your white Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 There's your white Thanksgiving.Too bad the ens aren't as enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Cold out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Euro looks great thru day 10 FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 BOX finally catching on to what we've been discussing for days and days A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSSPORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICHARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERSARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THEINTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Too bad the ens aren't as enthused. FWIW, several (but fewer than half) of the 00z individual GEFS showed a pretty good hit. But the 6z OP GFS has a 130 + knot WNW jet streak in the Northern Plains at the time it's developing. I hate to see what when I'm rooting for amplification. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 BOX finally catching on to what we've been discussing for days and days A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO -10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. Give me qpf or give me death. 20.7/12. Cool enough that I was longing for a hat during my 5:00a.m. dog-walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Pretty warm in the 11-15. Yesterday was ugly too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Yesterday was ugly too. The good news is 11-15 ...particularly the latter days are seemingly always warmer lately but staying in the far range out run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Nevertheless, a decent signal for major bb meltdowns around 12/6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The good news is 11-15 ...particularly the latter days are seemingly always warmer lately but staying in the far range out run to run. It's actually better than yesterday after looking at it. As long as the block remains north of Ak, it's gonna prevent a prolonged torch. Also heights in the EPAC were much higher. The 11-15 day is a about as stable as our relations with Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Toss the ens past day 7.completly unreliable anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Toss the ens past day 7.completly unreliable anymore If you cant' rely on the models, wishcasting is always fun. Trying to use up vacation days before losing them--10 days off begins today. What to do. What to do. What to do........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Toss the ens past day 7.completly unreliable anymore But what if they showed cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 If you cant' rely on the models, wishcasting is always fun. Trying to use up vacation days before losing them--10 days off begins today. What to do. What to do. What to do........ Note to yourself, use the vaca...it's good for you. For now, 10 days of weenieing is ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 But what if they showed cold?We would still doubt them. They usually end up completely opposite of what happens. So if Jerry says 12/6-7 are showing warm..it Prob will be cold and if they go cold after that it Prob ends up mild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 You spelled continuous wrong in your sig Kevin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I can't see any reason why we won't relax in the 10-15. Teleconnections look kind of flat, MJO in unfavorable phases, looks like a zonal type of flow to me and a more pacific driven pattern but hey who the heck am I. I'd rather have it relax and than reload about 10 days before Christmas. But first, give me that Turkey Day treat and some nice wintry weather for the holiday weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 As long as heights N of AK remain high like is shown in the extended...the mild patterns will probably be fairly short lived and/or moderate as we get closer. Ensembles are still not overly enthused about next Wednesday night...they have been quite similar for several runs now. They maybe look a little better than yesterday...but just barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Hopefully the constant regeneration of heights north of AK and the trend of rising heights in the EPAC are a sign of change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Too bad the ens aren't as enthused. They aren't as enthused as the op which isn't surprising, but there's definitely a non-zero signal for a light/moderate event IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I was reading somewhere that the background state doesn't favor long lasting warm-ups in the east. Can a met on here confirm this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 As long as heights N of AK remain high like is shown in the extended...the mild patterns will probably be fairly short lived and/or moderate as we get closer Ensembles are still not overly enthused about next Wednesday night...they have been quite similar for several runs now. They maybe look a little better than yesterday...but just barely. Trying to figure out how w that Neg in the GOA and a Trough into Europe day 12 thru 15 spells a ridge on the EC for any extended period of time One of those signals by itself should teleconnect to a Trough on the EC IMO Ever since the upgrade the ensembles just miss the trough on the EC In the LR. Does very well west of the Rockies but has been washing the troughs out downstream . The GFS keeps the MJO in 2 then rolls into the COD the euro takes it through 3 and 4. Is that the difference here In the LR ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I was reading somewhere that the background state doesn't favor long lasting warm-ups in the east. Can a met on here confirm this. Well we have a lot of higher heights of N of AK...that leads to a lot of cold spilling over into Canada and eventually down into the northern tier of the U.S. It's kind of the opposite of when we have a death vortex up there....when there is a big vortex, the cold shots tend to underperform in length and intensity or disappear altogether on models as we get closer...you hear it all the time in those types of winters when weenies say "cold is always 10 days away, it never gets any closer". This is kind of the opposite. The warmth doesn't tend to materialize as storng as advertised or disappears altogether when we get closer or is shorter in length. After this 3 day warmup early next week, that is the type of regime we seem to be settling into. It's not a flat out frigid pattern, but one that would favor cold over warmth. However, one major caveat you have to remember is this is assuming the depiction N of AK in the extended is correct....the extended has been terribly inconsistent recently. The one feature that has been more consistent is higher heights up there, so there's a bit more confidence that part might be right....but still take everything with a grain of salt for now beyond D8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I was reading somewhere that the background state doesn't favor long lasting warm-ups in the east. Can a met on here confirm this. Go back 2-4 posts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I was reading somewhere that the background state doesn't favor long lasting warm-ups in the east. Can a met on here confirm this. Nov, nuff said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Go back 2-4 posts lol. Ya I saw lol. Still looks good going forward into mid dec at least with the MJO progressing towards the colder phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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