jamesnichols89 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Scary thing is as historic as this event has been, there is another one for next week that could get equally as crazy as this event and I will be there in BUF, NY for it. Also its expected to be a southwesterly cyclonic flow event, which means the northern suburbs will get hit with this major event. My cousin brought to my attention how serious the situation is in the southern suburbs right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I'm happy to hear that our poster from Cape Cod,MA has returned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Who is mehing the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 GFS day 6 took huge step towards looking like the EURO at that time frame. Not saying results will be the same, but the overall pattern def. Lets see if it shows big cold outbreak day 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Check out the differences between runs, huge step towards looking like the EURO.... Almost comical... 18z 174 12z 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I'm happy to hear that our poster from Cape Cod,MA has returned. Indeed I have, how has everyone been, I forgot my password and username previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 18z gfs goes nuts with the long-range cold shot...guidance really picking up on the AK block and the Siberian connection.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Brett and I will both be in NJ for thanksgiving. Perhaps we shall see a flake or 3. My family will be reasonably inland in Princeton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Weeklies are rather tepid. LOL. They do start to build an ALeutian type low, but keep the NAO + too along with an extension of lower heights into the Bering Sea. Almost a split flow look with near to slightly AN temps. So it could be stormy, but lacks cold. Given the model volatility of late, I hold little value in weeks 3 and 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Weeklies are rather tepid. LOL. They do start to build an ALeutian type low, but keep the NAO + too along with an extension of lower heights into the Bering Sea. Almost a split flow look with near to slightly AN temps. So it could be stormy, but lacks cold. Given the model volatility of late, I hold little value in weeks 3 and 4. Mjo giving them fits. I think we need a stronger signal to be more reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Mjo giving them fits. I think we need a stronger signal to be more reliable. It's gonna move from the IO into the WPAC early to mid Dec which is sort of when I am thinking we see some impacts. It's hard for me to trust anything. The 11-15 day period valid at the same time this current 6-10 day period is incredibly different. I think the fact that we continue to have a weenie lobe of higher heights north of AK, is causing these very cold shots to shoot straight out of northern Canada into the Plains. As long as we have that, it will mute any torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Weeklies have blown dongs...Anything past about 5-7 days can't be trusted ..one way or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Weeklies have blown dongs...Anything past about 5-7 days can't be trusted ..one way or the other They have hinted at the milder pattern coming up, but have struggled too. I'm only saying what they show, since everyone asks. It's certainly not a terrible look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Weeklies have blown dongs...Anything past about 5-7 days can't be trusted ..one way or the other This is True!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Euro ensembles were doing well until recently. They called the pre-thanksgiving torch pretty good. But past that point is where it has begun to unravel. Weeklies I don't trust one iota at the moment. Maybe week 2 and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 The blend is you're friend when there are too many conflicting signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Weeklies have always blown dongs...Anything past about 5-7 days never could be trusted ..one way or the other. The only reason they were ever right was during eras when they just happened to roll the dice in tandem with chaos. But anyone can win at crapse. And that's what they are: total "crapse" There's no skill there beyond chance correlation, and I've always been wrong to even bring them up, and the ECM corp has everyone snowed who would ever pay for such an utterly useless... Yeah, pretty much agree with your statement there, Kev' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Wouldn't the MJO moving into the wpac cause the pattern to be colder than what it's showing fOr week 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Wouldn't the MJO moving into the wpac cause the pattern to be colder than what it's showing fOr week 4? Because it's slow and won't move into the favorable zones until mid Dec at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Yeah, pretty much agree with your statement there, Kev' I need to write this down in the history books. Look at these two in agreement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It's sealed Jimmy Carter winter incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It's sealed Jimmy Carter winter incoming.79-80? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Who is mehing the event? Tip a little bit yesterday, but I don't know who else. There seem to be more people complaining about people mehing the event than the number of people supposedly doing the mehing. (if that makes sense) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It's sealed Jimmy Carter winter incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Jimmy Carter winter-put on your sweater and lower your thermostat to conserve energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Barack Obama type of winter coming. Snow for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 0z GFS is chilly Thanksgiving and especially into the weekend, also has a little light snow event on Saturday for some from what looks like a clipper passing to our south. Probably nothing more than shsn with some coatings really, but nice to see it looking like that instead of a cutter scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Barack Obama type of winter coming. Snow for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Man, what a boring a$$ month. It can't end quickly enough, so that we can raise the curtain on winter already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 00z EURO looks interesting day 6-7, but can't tell without precip maps. Would be a severe thread the needle event as low forms after cold front clears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.