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November II Discussion


CapturedNature

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Will, why are thicknesses so high along the coast for the Thanksgiving/Day 5 threat even when the 850s are getting quite cold? Obviously it's partly antecedent, but Is that downslope on strong west winds? Definitely a little concerned with temps here on the coast. 

 

That trough is intriguing though...strong -EPO developing with a back piece of energy near the Dakotas. Lots of potential with the 2nd shortwave although the entire ridge is oriented too far west and probably dumps this OTS. More worried about the OTS threat than a cutter now.

 

The whole airmass is marginal...850 temps are below 0C but only like -1C and the 700mb temps are not that cold either. I could produce snow if the storm system is organized enough, but its not a high probability setup. It's pretty much a longshot at the moment.

 

Maybe it will look better as we get closer, but I'm not getting invested in it for now.

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Euro ensembles punted the cutter idea for Black Friday...they've been all over the place in that time range. They have a hint of a wave to our south a day later on Saturday...but hardly anything worth getting excited about right now.

 

They still have tepid support for the Wednesday wave...they haven't really changed much on that despite the OP run sometimes having nothing and then sometimes having the wave impact us (like today's run).

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Euro ensembles punted the cutter idea for Black Friday...they've been all over the place in that time range. They have a hint of a wave to our south a day later on Saturday...but hardly anything worth getting excited about right now.

 

They still have tepid support for the Wednesday wave...they haven't really changed much on that despite the OP run sometimes having nothing and then sometimes having the wave impact us (like today's run).

 

Tepid is banned for a while. Mix it up.

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ever hear of sarcasm? LOL

Since the guy is new, and really doesn't understand some of the personalities of the regulars here, why would he traslate what Tip said into sarcasm?  One dimensional statements on a message board don't give any reason to believe that the post was anything but sincere to him.   It wasn't like Tip used the sarcasm button.  Sarcasm is not always easily interpreted in formats like this.

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Since the guy is new, and really doesn't understand some of the personalities of the regulars here, why would he traslate what Tip said into sarcasm? One dimensional statements on a message board don't give any reason to believe that the post was anything but sincere to him. It wasn't like Tip used the sarcasm button. Sarcasm is not always easily interpreted in formats like this.

Yea..sarcasm is misunderstood.

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The whole airmass is marginal...850 temps are below 0C but only like -1C and the 700mb temps are not that cold either. I could produce snow if the storm system is organized enough, but its not a high probability setup. It's pretty much a longshot at the moment.

 

Maybe it will look better as we get closer, but I'm not getting invested in it for now.

I definitely agree: it's sort of the cold air chasing the precipitation for the main storm (Wednesday), which doesn't bode well in late November on the coastal plain. Thicknesses of 542 dam aren't great for snow in NYC right now.

 

However, it's not hard to see how that big of a trough could get us some snow. Whether it's a clipper, some weak coastal inflow, or stray lake effect/WINDEX, a lot of ways for it to snow with -20C 850s and a huge shortwave coming in. I remember our first snowfall here in the frigid December of 2010: an arctic front passed through, and due north winds combined with oceanic inflow parked a band over the Hudson Valley to give us 2" here in Dobbs Ferry. 

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The set-up might moderate greatly, but what's depicted verbatim on the Day 10 12z ECM OP is probably colder than last year's outbreak. Last year the -20C 850s were up in Quebec...this looks like it would get the -20 contour down near NYC. The high is also in a great spot, bridging from the Great Lakes to Central Quebec...Winds are probably due north down the Hudson,/Connecticut River Valleys, which is essential for cold in these parts. Bitter stuff!

Yeah it was close.

 

 

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That band is just sick. 100+ inches with ease

The mehing is really unbelievable. "oh it happens every ten years, not a lot of people, qpf is low, ratios are 20-1 etc etc etc" its almost like an anti you out there in social media. I mean at what point do these folks capitulate and realize this is an a highly populated area with mega totals above 60 as high as 85 now spread way out and verging on once a lifetime stuff for 100's of thousands. Its not Podunk NY. I just don't get it.

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The mehing is really unbelievable. "oh it happens every ten years, not a lot of people, qpf is low, ratios are 20-1 etc etc etc" its almost like an anti you out there in social media. I mean at what point do these folks capitulate and realize this is an a highly populated area with mega totals above 60 as high as 85 now spread way out and verging on once a lifetime stuff for 100's of thousands. Its not Podunk NY. I just don't get it.

Yeah it's a once in a lifetime deal for those folks. Something never seen and never will be seen again.

 

I admit..They will have plenty of snow left after the mini mild up. Just jaw dropping and honestly hard to comprehend what's going on there

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I know, I just remember you getting depressed over a not so favorable pattern at day 10.

I like all signals this winter...

 

The Aleutian ridge is a bit surprising for an El Nino, but it could help us if it's that far poleward. The high heights extend back to Siberia which gets the cross-polar flow going, and Asia is about to have an historic cold outbreak...especially northeast Siberia. 

 

People are getting depressed for all the wrong reasons, and no reason at all.

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