powderfreak Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Some of us thought we'd see modeling bring that wave back on Wednesday next week. Seems to be starting. White as we cut the bird? What's the met reasoning for bringing that back on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 -15C 850s on Dec 1 happen every year... I wonder what they were last year at that time? We had a low of -6F on Nov 30th, so it might have been close, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Will, why are thicknesses so high along the coast for the Thanksgiving/Day 5 threat even when the 850s are getting quite cold? Obviously it's partly antecedent, but Is that downslope on strong west winds? Definitely a little concerned with temps here on the coast. That trough is intriguing though...strong -EPO developing with a back piece of energy near the Dakotas. Lots of potential with the 2nd shortwave although the entire ridge is oriented too far west and probably dumps this OTS. More worried about the OTS threat than a cutter now. The whole airmass is marginal...850 temps are below 0C but only like -1C and the 700mb temps are not that cold either. I could produce snow if the storm system is organized enough, but its not a high probability setup. It's pretty much a longshot at the moment. Maybe it will look better as we get closer, but I'm not getting invested in it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I wonder what they were last year at that time? We had a low of -6F on Nov 30th, so it might have been close, lol. I remember hunting that last weekend sitting in the woods at -10F last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I wonder what they were last year at that time? We had a low of -6F on Nov 30th, so it might have been close, lol. Yeah it was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I wonder what they were last year at that time? We had a low of -6F on Nov 30th, so it might have been close, lol. Yeah, was -20C on 00z on Nov 30th last year. Although -14C over Southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 High was 47 here. Take the over on SW winds here this time of year, but the wind made it feel far from it. 44 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 No, I understood YOU... I didn't understand his sentence - literally. Like, 'huh?' LOL He's not to keen on punctuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Euro ensembles punted the cutter idea for Black Friday...they've been all over the place in that time range. They have a hint of a wave to our south a day later on Saturday...but hardly anything worth getting excited about right now. They still have tepid support for the Wednesday wave...they haven't really changed much on that despite the OP run sometimes having nothing and then sometimes having the wave impact us (like today's run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Euro ensembles punted the cutter idea for Black Friday...they've been all over the place in that time range. They have a hint of a wave to our south a day later on Saturday...but hardly anything worth getting excited about right now. They still have tepid support for the Wednesday wave...they haven't really changed much on that despite the OP run sometimes having nothing and then sometimes having the wave impact us (like today's run). Tepid is banned for a while. Mix it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 buffalo soldier is reporting 25.5 new about an hour ago and 75.5 total for the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Tepid is banned for a while. Mix it up. I was just thinking the same thing He's developed a tepid fetish of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 ever hear of sarcasm? LOL Since the guy is new, and really doesn't understand some of the personalities of the regulars here, why would he traslate what Tip said into sarcasm? One dimensional statements on a message board don't give any reason to believe that the post was anything but sincere to him. It wasn't like Tip used the sarcasm button. Sarcasm is not always easily interpreted in formats like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Since the guy is new, and really doesn't understand some of the personalities of the regulars here, why would he traslate what Tip said into sarcasm? One dimensional statements on a message board don't give any reason to believe that the post was anything but sincere to him. It wasn't like Tip used the sarcasm button. Sarcasm is not always easily interpreted in formats like this. Yea..sarcasm is misunderstood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Our noreasters are going to seem small and quick compared to this lake effect event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I was just thinking the same thing He's developed a tepid fetish of late. Lol...no mercy in here. Use it 3 times in a week and you are taken out to the woodshed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Apemen are tepid it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I was just thinking the same thing He's developed a tepid fetish of late. Haha me too. Let's use any word other than tepid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Tepid begets tepid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 The whole airmass is marginal...850 temps are below 0C but only like -1C and the 700mb temps are not that cold either. I could produce snow if the storm system is organized enough, but its not a high probability setup. It's pretty much a longshot at the moment. Maybe it will look better as we get closer, but I'm not getting invested in it for now. I definitely agree: it's sort of the cold air chasing the precipitation for the main storm (Wednesday), which doesn't bode well in late November on the coastal plain. Thicknesses of 542 dam aren't great for snow in NYC right now. However, it's not hard to see how that big of a trough could get us some snow. Whether it's a clipper, some weak coastal inflow, or stray lake effect/WINDEX, a lot of ways for it to snow with -20C 850s and a huge shortwave coming in. I remember our first snowfall here in the frigid December of 2010: an arctic front passed through, and due north winds combined with oceanic inflow parked a band over the Hudson Valley to give us 2" here in Dobbs Ferry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 The set-up might moderate greatly, but what's depicted verbatim on the Day 10 12z ECM OP is probably colder than last year's outbreak. Last year the -20C 850s were up in Quebec...this looks like it would get the -20 contour down near NYC. The high is also in a great spot, bridging from the Great Lakes to Central Quebec...Winds are probably due north down the Hudson,/Connecticut River Valleys, which is essential for cold in these parts. Bitter stuff! Yeah it was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Socks back to his extended euro op fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Socks back to his extended euro op fetish. EC ENS have a big cold outbreak around Day 12-13 as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 That band is just sick. 100+ inches with ease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 EC ENS have a big cold outbreak around Day 12-13 as well... I know, I just remember you getting depressed over a not so favorable pattern at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 That band is just sick. 100+ inches with ease The mehing is really unbelievable. "oh it happens every ten years, not a lot of people, qpf is low, ratios are 20-1 etc etc etc" its almost like an anti you out there in social media. I mean at what point do these folks capitulate and realize this is an a highly populated area with mega totals above 60 as high as 85 now spread way out and verging on once a lifetime stuff for 100's of thousands. Its not Podunk NY. I just don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 The mehing is really unbelievable. "oh it happens every ten years, not a lot of people, qpf is low, ratios are 20-1 etc etc etc" its almost like an anti you out there in social media. I mean at what point do these folks capitulate and realize this is an a highly populated area with mega totals above 60 as high as 85 now spread way out and verging on once a lifetime stuff for 100's of thousands. Its not Podunk NY. I just don't get it. Yeah it's a once in a lifetime deal for those folks. Something never seen and never will be seen again. I admit..They will have plenty of snow left after the mini mild up. Just jaw dropping and honestly hard to comprehend what's going on there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Ladies and Gentlemen, it is with great pleasure to announce that James Nichols is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Elma had 57 inch snow depth this morning and got another 3 feet today. There depth might be 70+ inches tomorrow morning. I mean it's almost Fantasia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I know, I just remember you getting depressed over a not so favorable pattern at day 10. I like all signals this winter... The Aleutian ridge is a bit surprising for an El Nino, but it could help us if it's that far poleward. The high heights extend back to Siberia which gets the cross-polar flow going, and Asia is about to have an historic cold outbreak...especially northeast Siberia. People are getting depressed for all the wrong reasons, and no reason at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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