CT Valley Snowman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 haha I just managed to scroll up the screen and see Tips comment from earlier, actually feel kind of proud that I was on the same line of thinking as him although on a much simpler level. even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Okay ... now you can parse that sentence out and explain what the hell that means ... 'Sides, I was just bustin' ballz; only because Will and I just got done explaining it and it came off as some kind of new insight... haha It went over his head. Just as my sarcasm did your's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Maybe I'm wrong, but this looks awfully dangerous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 That wave does give QPF now to SNE...but the airmass is really marginal. Still in clown range at 144-156 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Lol...euro catching on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Amazing how different the Euro and GFS are at D7....Euro really presses that cold air mass down into the high plains again while GFS is more transient cold shot for the eastern half of the country and really sparing the high plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Amazing how different the Euro and GFS are at D7....Euro really presses that cold air mass down into the high plains again while GFS is more transient cold shot for the eastern half of the country and really sparing the high plains. It's how they handle the cut off low in the pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Love the 12z trend so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Some of us thought we'd see modeling bring that wave back on Wednesday next week. Seems to be starting. White as we cut the bird? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Big snow event now Thanksgiving weekend from 95 N&W. Weak low runs from OBX to the Cape, and it just missed going boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 It's kind of a hideous setup for D6-7...a needle threader with an extremely marginal airmass. Expectations are quite low in my corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 That wave does give QPF now to SNE...but the airmass is really marginal. Still in clown range at 144-156 hours. Yup. All you really need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 It's kind of a hideous setup for D6-7...a needle threader with an extremely marginal airmass. Expectations are quite low in my corner. As thirsty as the lake effect imagery is making everyone for a hit, I maintain that we're not in business until the second half of December at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Well that was an interesting clown range run of the 12z Euro...another frigid airmass coming down with that anafrontal rain to snow event. We'll see how ensembles trend. It's already been mentioned several times over the past couple days, but the 11-15 day has been wildly swinging back and forth so way less confidence than usual out in that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 It went over his head. Just as my sarcasm did your's. No, I understood YOU... I didn't understand his sentence - literally. Like, 'huh?' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 It's kind of a hideous setup for D6-7...a needle threader with an extremely marginal airmass. Expectations are quite low in my corner. Maybe we build the pack from the interior and spread it SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Well that was an interesting clown range run of the 12z Euro...another frigid airmass coming down with that anafrontal rain to snow event. We'll see how ensembles trend. It's already been mentioned several times over the past couple days, but the 11-15 day has been wildly swinging back and forth so way less confidence than usual out in that time range. You know ... it honestly wasn't even the D6.5 thing (tho interesting trend there...) I was focussed on; it was the latter D8-9 thing. That one has some emerging tele support. Get a load of sub -30C 850s west of Jame's Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 We can always transport the snow from buffalo and dump it in our front yards...would probably be the easiest way to build a pack atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 We can always transport the snow from buffalo and dump it in our front yards...would probably be the easiest way to build a pack atm. The folks at Wilson Stadium will pay us good money to do just that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 You know ... it honestly wasn't even the D6.5 thing (tho interesting trend there...) I was focussed on; it was the latter D8-9 thing. That one has some emerging tele support. Get a load of sub -30C 850s west of Jame's Bay Yeah that one has stronger support...for some kind of system anyway. Whether it is a cutter or ends up further south remains to be seen. At least we'll have a better shot in that one for wintry precip given the antecedent airmass will be a bit colder from the T-day cold shot...tho still not optimal. Guidance is all over the place though on exactly how it handles that Siberian Express airmass coming out of Canada for D8-10. Obviously it would have large implications on our sensible wx here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Temp down to 38 after briefly tickling 40 earlier. Front is thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Man the euro brings the hounds in clown range. Would make my 68th among the coldest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Man the euro brings the hounds in clown range. Would make my 68th among the coldest. Now that depiction at 10 days is what I am waiting for. December cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 just one run. definitely some players on the field but we may need about a 56 yard field goal to score on this one, a lot of things have to work out just right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Now that depiction at 10 days is what I am waiting for. December coldThat's January cold...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 This warm up may feature cutters and warm temps, but I doubt it is long lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 -15C 850s on Dec 1 happen every year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Yeah that one has stronger support...for some kind of system anyway. Whether it is a cutter or ends up further south remains to be seen. At least we'll have a better shot in that one for wintry precip given the antecedent airmass will be a bit colder from the T-day cold shot...tho still not optimal. Guidance is all over the place though on exactly how it handles that Siberian Express airmass coming out of Canada for D8-10. Obviously it would have large implications on our sensible wx here. Will, why are thicknesses so high along the coast for the Thanksgiving/Day 5 threat even when the 850s are getting quite cold? Obviously it's partly antecedent, but Is that downslope on strong west winds? Definitely a little concerned with temps here on the coast. That trough is intriguing though...strong -EPO developing with a back piece of energy near the Dakotas. Lots of potential with the 2nd shortwave although the entire ridge is oriented too far west and probably dumps this OTS. More worried about the OTS threat than a cutter now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Yup. All you really need to know. This area and marginal dont mesh very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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