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November II Discussion


CapturedNature

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awestruck at Buf pics. I don't get the jaded posts about the historical nature of this, yes its a narrow band but in the heart of congested suburbs and shutting down the major thruway in NY for 3 days. is it the biggest ever, probably not but I challenge any one to show me pics more impressive than this from a Buffalo LES storm. 

 

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Okay so there's a median clear storm signal here for the D7-10 ranges (eyes roll), ... but the method for determining those intervals at extended lead bears success greater than 50% from my own use. 

 

Anyway, most operational guidance' have a robust intermediate stream latitudinal wave coming east of the Divide in that time range, and there is a subtle PNA signal.  Yesterday the imagination had this as an ice, and still there is some of that...

Yeah, I noticed that this morning when I was looking through guidance. EURO ens especially are pretty bullish with like 30-40% of the members having some sort of snow for the period(19/50 at BOS). Low probability, but when you've got a beautiful trough like the one modeled, things can happen, and we've got the cold air around as well. Worth keeping a corner of your eye on...

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awestruck at Buf pics. I don't get the jaded posts about the historical nature of this, yes its a narrow band but in the heart of congested suburbs and shutting down the major thruway in NY for 3 days. is it the biggest ever, probably not but I challenge any one to show me pics more impressive than this from a Buffalo LES storm. 

 

I agree.

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awestruck at Buf pics. I don't get the jaded posts about the historical nature of this, yes its a narrow band but in the heart of congested suburbs and shutting down the major thruway in NY for 3 days. is it the biggest ever, probably not but I challenge any one to show me pics more impressive than this from a Buffalo LES storm. 

 

Agreed.  Just incredible!

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I still think we have to keep an eye on the 6 to 10 day. the trough axis may very well end up being offshore but if we get enough spacing between some of those short waves rounding the base of the trough we could get some action. not wish casting anything big I'm just saying we have to monitor that potential.

 

Definitely keep us posted... 

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Sneaky warmth today relative to guidance and forecasts from a day or two ago. Lots of upper 40s to near 50 in SE areas CT/RI/MA...looks like CAA though has made it to western zones..KPSF's high was at 11am.

 

Even ORH has spiked over 40F when it looked like they could hold in the 30s.

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