Cold Miser Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Well that's not exactly doing it justice. We will yo-yo and I'm not certain it averages safely below. My point is, 10 days ago it looked like we really could get ugly...now it's more like a yo-yo pattern instead of a persistent mild regime. Why people want a favorable pattern so soon is beyond me. Great, a stormy pattern for people like myself and Bob/Brett to pound 37F rain. Oh joy. Let climo continue its descend and get the pattern going when we all can benefit. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Well that's not exactly doing it justice. We will yo-yo and I'm not certain it averages safely below. My point is, 10 days ago it looked like we really could get ugly...now it's more like a yo-yo pattern instead of a persistent mild regime. Why people want a favorable pattern so soon is beyond me. Great, a stormy pattern for people like myself and Bob/Brett to pound 37F rain. Oh joy. Let climo continue its descend and get the pattern going when we all can benefit.Well I was basing that off what Will has posted several times about the overall pattern ending up BN overall, even with the short 1-2 day mild ups. I also don't think anyone is opposed to the interior folks getting snows while closer to coast its a little tougher for that. Let's start inland and move it southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Well that's not exactly doing it justice. We will yo-yo and I'm not certain it averages safely below. My point is, 10 days ago it looked like we really could get ugly...now it's more like a yo-yo pattern instead of a persistent mild regime. Why people want a favorable pattern so soon is beyond me. Great, a stormy pattern for people like myself and Bob/Brett to pound 37F rain. Oh joy. Let climo continue its descend and get the pattern going when we all can benefit. Add me to the list. Get the calendar to about 12/5, then I can get off the sidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Well I was basing that off what Will has posted several times about the overall pattern ending up BN overall, even with the short 1-2 day mild ups. I also don't think anyone is opposed to the interior folks getting snows while closer to coast its a little tougher for that. Let's start inland and move it southeast That was intended for some other people who seemed a little antsy further east. It would take a darn cold airmass and a good high to the north to get some snow events and not just a "favorable" pattern if you know what I mean. Also, the BN comment was in retort to you sounding like it's straight up BN. It won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Well I was basing that off what Will has posted several times about the overall pattern ending up BN overall, even with the short 1-2 day mild ups. I also don't think anyone is opposed to the interior folks getting snows while closer to coast its a little tougher for that. Let's start inland and move it southeast Lets just wait and start it at the coast We don't need to start in Novemeber to get a 100" season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 it looks like the teleconnections will start to become more favorable as we head into early December a correction was necessary after this extreme cold but overall it looks like the AO and the NAO are going to trend negative as well as the PNA trending positive. maybe nothing extreme but certainly positive trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Worry is just not a word I have/use in my weather vocabulary. Just enjoy whatever you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Would be nice to build a snowpack inland wouldn't it? Or, doesn't that really have any affect on coastals on the coast so to speak? Theoretical question. Weenie in me would like it, but I'll take the yo-yo over the Pacific firehose. Just wondered about how snowpack inland affects the situation on the coast. In November? That doesn't happen very often... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 In November? That doesn't happen very often... Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 In November? That doesn't happen very often... Not in November, but as we move closer to real winter. Does it benefit the coastal areas when there is a snowpack in the interior--by helping hold colder air along the coast, damming, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Not in November, but as we move closer to real winter. Does it benefit the coastal areas when there is a snowpack in the interior--by helping hold colder air along the coast, damming, etc. Every little bit helps, but again....you're better off just keeping tabs on the Canadian snowpack throughout November. What you are doing is akin to keeping a close vigil on the Cape Verde islands for a long tracker during the month of June. Good luck. When you take on climo, you're going to lose. Stick to the GOM and other assortments of "home brew" during June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Why people want a favorable pattern so soon is beyond me. Great, a stormy pattern for people like myself and Bob/Brett to pound 37F rain. Oh joy. Let climo continue its descend and get the pattern going when we all can benefit. And we'll get to smoke some cirrus up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I don't know why we are limiting ourselves...let's just go with a big nor'easter every week from now until April. The love will get spread around evenly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 And we'll get to smoke some cirrus up here It's very hard for you guys to have an awful season when you have upslope. Sure, you can point out a few clunkers...but the Greens can turn a dud into a serviceable winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 And we'll get to smoke some cirrus up here Yea, but for the next few weeks, and again from March through April, you'll clean up. Not to metnion upslope fetish. You don't even need synoptics up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 It's very hard for you guys to have an awful season when you have upslope. Sure, you can point out a few clunkers...but the Greens can turn a dud into a serviceable winter. Haha it was totally tongue in cheek...I'm not worried in the least this season. Just playing with the "when we can all benefit" wording, as I know what you meant, the general SNE populous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Not in November, but as we move closer to real winter. Does it benefit the coastal areas when there is a snowpack in the interior--by helping hold colder air along the coast, damming, etc. It does help a bit, but it is better to look big picture. Although CAD can be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Rather nice today, but of a breeze though. The cold returns tomorrow for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 yes temps are already 42 to 46 across many locations of Interior Connecticut outside of the higher terrain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 It's very hard for you guys to have an awful season when you have upslope. Sure, you can point out a few clunkers...but the Greens can turn a dud into a serviceable winter. He has that added element that most here do not have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Listening to the Erie County fire department on a scanner and they are starting to get roof collapse calls. Listening for the last 30 minutes I have heard of 3 calls. They also evacuated everyone in a trailer park for the same reason. Hopefully they don't get too much more snow today and people can get these roofs cleared before the warm weather and rain come or things could get pretty serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Okay so there's a median clear storm signal here for the D7-10 ranges (eyes roll), ... but the method for determining those intervals at extended lead bears success greater than 50% from my own use. Anyway, most operational guidance' have a robust intermediate stream latitudinal wave coming east of the Divide in that time range, and there is a subtle PNA signal. Yesterday the imagination had this as an ice, and still there is some of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 BDL seems off again today. 47F at the airport but 42 at CEF/BAF and 45F at HFD/MMK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 That's quite the deep trough over the east for Thanksgiving on the GFS...doesn't really produce a storm, but it's a bit compelling for future runs...we'll see how the Euro plays it though. They've been differing quite a bit around the Thanksgiving timeframe on how they are handling the longwave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 That's quite the deep trough over the east for Thanksgiving on the GFS...doesn't really produce a storm, but it's a bit compelling for future runs...we'll see how the Euro plays it though. They've been differing quite a bit around the Thanksgiving timeframe on how they are handling the longwave pattern. Agreed ... mentioned this a couple post ago and how there are some markers amid the various teles/techniques that suggest an active interval in there. Doesn't mean snow rain or what...just something. Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 CT broadcasts that are using Bradley as there official reporting station should think about changing it to HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 CT broadcasts that are using Bradley as there official reporting station should think about changing it to HFD. We're looking into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Man is the wind ripping out there today. Gusting close to 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Nice photos but it's really localized... You can drive 10 minutes ...well, if snowy roads permitted, and you'd be down to almost nothing. I grew up for a while in Kalamazoo Michigan, and I can remember seeing dark gray wall to the SW, and bright white walls in the NE horizons, as the LE bands typically split around the city. We'd be getting nothing; inside those bands were over a foot. The photos for me are not as epic as they may be for some, because these things are so tiny, with major impact for very few compared to regional scales. I might even argue that the insanely localized nature of it makes it even crazier to me. Imagine driving from 2" to 60" in 5 miles! Lol. And 60" in 24 hours is pretty much the definition of epic. But I definitely understand from a regional-impact argument. I would bet a lot of people not from the area think everywhere along the lakes got 6 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Evolve??LOL..what are people going from Apemen to cavemen? In November..especially twds the latter part of the month.. I expect it to start turning somewhat wintry..and this year it has. Nothing more can be asked of November this year Probably snowed more in Dec. back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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