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November II Discussion


CapturedNature

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This is the time of year when those annoying posts start coming out like..patience..it's not climo for it to snow...the pattern looks good after Dec 10th,, it's early, some of our best winters started in mid-late Dec.. start coming out..driving everyone insane..Hopefully something pops next week on Wed

It's usually in response to the delusional posts that convey the idea that widespread snow cover by Thanksgiving is normal.

November is wish-casting month and the 240 hour storm threat month....sometimes the same weenies fall for it every year. Others evolve and learn not to get too upset when you only get 2-3" of snow in November once they learn that is climo (or even above)

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It's usually in response to the delusional posts that convey the idea that widespread snow cover by Thanksgiving is normal.

November is wish-casting month and the 240 hour storm threat month....sometimes the same weenies fall for it every year. Others evolve and learn not to get too upset when you only get 2-3" of snow in November once they learn that is climo (or even above)

Evolve??LOL..what are people going from Apemen to cavemen?

 

In November..especially twds the latter part of the month.. I expect it to start turning somewhat wintry..and this year it has.  Nothing more can be asked of November this year

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Evolve??LOL..what are people going from Apemen to cavemen?

In November..especially twds the latter part of the month.. I expect it to start turning somewhat wintry..and this year it has. Nothing more can be asked of November this year

I would say on the meteorological evolution scale, we certainly have some apemen here.

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This is the time of year when those  annoying posts start coming out like..patience..it's not climo for it to snow...the pattern looks good after Dec 10th,, it's early, some of our best winters started in mid-late Dec.. start coming out..driving everyone insane..Hopefully something pops next week on Wed

 

And most of what you posted would be correct

 

okay I guess we should all be robots now and shut down our feelings and bow down to the weather Kings on this forum. some people have been real nice to me since I've joined but other people have given me nothing but snide remarks.

 

Going to be long winter if your going to get that wrapped up on marginal threats in november

 

Jesus...butt hurt much? Look, you're probably a fine person....heck, you'll meet us all if we get another gtg going. And believe me I'd love 3-4 feet in November. But in my 68 Novembers in earth including this one, it hasn't produced...lol.

 

There are many reasons why most on here's climo is on the low side for snow in november

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Ridging is forecasted to develop over the Aleutians and into the Bering Sea in the 11-15 day and will persist with a weaker GOAK trough. Lots of cold in Canada which is a classic look when you have an Aleutian ridge. This is likely in response to a good MJO signal pushing through the IO into Indonesia.  This should eventually push east and hopefully form ridging into the EPAC towards mid month. This is part of the reason why I'm thinking after the 10-15th for anything meaningful in terms of a wintry pattern. Obviously the interior can sneak something beforehand if things break right, so I am not saying there is no hope. Just realistic expectations will have to wait perhaps.

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Worry begins about the model runs. November turned out to be quite different from expectations. I expect we may have some surprises (hopefully pleasant ones) in December. Nevertheless, it seems that the next big cool down will be coming toward the middle of December. Of course, that's using all my purely amateurish knowledge to extrapolate from what the experts are saying.

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It's kind of a La Niña pattern on the 11-15 day. If we got something out of that it would probably have to be some sort of overrunning or SWFE. But that isn't easy to do in the first 5 days of December. You need a pretty nice airmass.

We'll see if that changes as we get closer. I don't have a lot of faith in the 11-15 right now. It's been struggling more than normal.

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Ridging is forecasted to develop over the Aleutians and into the Bering Sea in the 11-15 day and will persist with a weaker GOAK trough. Lots of cold in Canada which is a classic look when you have an Aleutian ridge. This is likely in response to a good MJO signal pushing through the IO into Indonesia.  This should eventually push east and hopefully form ridging into the EPAC towards mid month. This is part of the reason why I'm thinking after the 10-15th for anything meaningful in terms of a wintry pattern. Obviously the interior can sneak something beforehand if things break right, so I am not saying there is no hope. Just realistic expectations will have to wait perhaps.

Agreed.

This is why I think we see a white xmas this season. Orginally it looked as though things may kick off sooner, and may see a relaxation timed horribly for xmas, but that no longer looks to be the case.

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It's kind of a La Niña pattern on the 11-15 day. If we got something out of that it would probably have to be some sort of overrunning or SWFE. But that isn't easy to do in the first 5 days of December. You need a pretty nice airmass.

We'll see if that changes as we get closer. I don't have a lot of faith in the 11-15 right now. It's been struggling more than normal.

 

It's pretty funny...lol. One thing that has sort of worked is "staying the course" with the notion of any prolonged torches hinted at by the models have had a tendency to get muted and at times, reverse. So, if there is one thing that seems to be consistent..it's betting against a warm pattern around here.

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It's nice that we have been in and will continue to be colder than normal. I'd just like to see that coincide with a snow event or 2. I still think we see modeling trend back twds that wave idea on Wed next week

 

Well that's not exactly doing it justice. We will yo-yo and I'm not certain it averages safely below.  My point is, 10 days ago it looked like we really could get ugly...now it's more like a yo-yo pattern instead of a persistent mild regime. Why people want a favorable pattern so soon is beyond me. Great, a stormy pattern for people like myself and Bob/Brett to pound 37F rain. Oh joy. Let climo continue its descend and get the pattern going when we all can benefit.

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Well that's not exactly doing it justice. We will yo-yo and I'm not certain it averages safely below.  My point is, 10 days ago it looked like we really could get ugly...now it's more like a yo-yo pattern instead of a persistent mild regime. Why people want a favorable pattern so soon is beyond me. Great, a stormy pattern for people like myself and Bob/Brett to pound 37F rain. Oh joy. Let climo continue its descend and get the pattern going when we all can benefit.

Would be nice to build a snowpack inland wouldn't it? Or, doesn't that really have any affect on coastals on the coast so to speak? Theoretical question. Weenie in me would like it, but I'll take the yo-yo over the Pacific firehose. Just wondered about how snowpack inland affects the situation on the coast.

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my statement was a positive one, eventually something is going to break right for us. However, being a snow lover if I see potential on maps but it does not materialize, I don't care what time of year it is a bit of a disappointment. It starts to get annoying annoying when people aren't free to express themselves without being bashed over little things.

Nothing wrong with expressing your feelings my friend.  Just please don't get caught up in what a certain few are Smoking.  That will boost your expectations through the moon, and leave you deflated and disappointed every time.  Like what has happened here in November...(remember all the "Locking in Winter comments," and we are going to be "tracking multiple winter storm threats" etc etc..).  It hasn't happened for us here in SNE.  Stay Realistic and things usually fall into place IMO. And you are right, something is going to break for us, but the pattern takes time to Mature...and it will.  

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