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November II Discussion


CapturedNature

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You can turn around and show your arse to people when you bend over to pick them up.  Doesn't get any better,

 

LOL--we're all going to get wrist-slapped for moving the lawn thread into the discussion thread.

 

Monday would be a very different situation if it were taking place in January when there would be lots of snow on the ground to keep low-levels cool.

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Mr Drag pipes in

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...DEPENDING ON TRACK WINTRY WX TO VARYING  
DEGREES IN NE PA AND NW NJ. FURTHER SOUTH RAIN. SOME OF THE PCPN  
I THINK WILL BE HEAVY WITH GULF COAST ORIGIN OF THE LOW AND PWAT  
INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH. GFS QPF IS AROUND 1 INCH E PA/NW NJ  
AND LESS SEWD. MANY OTHER MODELS ARE LESS. ATTM THINK WE NEED TO  
SIDE WITH THE MORE ROBUST GFS. THIS LOOKS TO ME TO BE A DYNAMIC  
12-18 HR OVERRUNNING EVENT.  
 
CONCERN EXISTS REGARDING PRETTY DECENT LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH  
ZONE MODELED NEAR 540MB...ESPECIALLY MONROE COUNTY PA NEWD WHICH  
MAY DELAY A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO ICE THERE AND/OR COULD SEE ALTERNATING  
PERIODS OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX WITH HEAVY WET SNOW KMPO NEWD  
ON MONDAY.  
 
THE LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ALONG A TIGHTENING FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SERN  
US TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THERE ARE AS USUAL SOME SLIGHT  
POSITION AND TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS.  
 
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR IMPACTS IS HOW MUCH FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIP  
WILL OCCUR. IT APPEARS NOW THAT AREAS S/E OF PHL WILL SEE MOSTLY  
RAIN WHILE AREAS FARTHER N/W COULD SEE SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP  
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN MON MORNING OR  
MIDDAY MONDAY.  
 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD HAVE SNOW LASTING  
LONGER INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.  
FRZG RAIN/AND SLEET IS A BIT MORE PLENTIFUL IN THIS FORECAST...SINCE  
950 MB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AOB FREEZING IN THE POCONOS THROUGH 17Z  
MONDAY.  
 
FORECAST SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS AS SEEN IN THE NDFD AND OR STATED IN  
THE PT/CLICK LEGACY PRODUCTS IS IN MY OPINION CONSERVATIVE AND AM  
EXPECTING WE'LL NEED TO BOOST.  
 
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS AND ANY LINGERING  
PRECIP MAY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT  
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
FOR THIS EVENT...I STRONGLY SUGGEST CONSIDERING THE FRONT END OF  
THE EVENT BEING THE SNOW/ICE PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY SUNRISE MONDAY.  

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We are going to have wait until sometime in December for a good pattern to set in. The pattern after T-Day is still Pacific dominated. That's usually a normal to above pattern. Maybe you sneak a snow event in, but it's far from a wintry pattern. 

this is how you do it, don't always need a super pattern to sneak in snow as you mentioned but models are changing everyday LR . 

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We are going to have wait until sometime in December for a good pattern to set in. The pattern after T-Day is still Pacific dominated. That's usually a normal to above pattern. Maybe you sneak a snow event in, but it's far from a wintry pattern. 

 

Yeah Aleutian low hasn't really reloaded by then...at least not as it stands on the ensembles right now. We got from the mild wx before T-day back to normal or slightly above unless the Aleutian low trends better as we get closer.

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I have a few small patches of snow left on the north side. I wasn't claiming snowcover with a pic showing mostly bare grass though. Your neighbors' yards look good though.

 

 

Lol at Kevin bragging about a coating of snow OTG in mid-November to you of all people...you should PM him a pic during every CAD event where he loses his snow pack in 51F rain while you are 32 with double digit snow pack.

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Lol at Kevin bragging about a coating of snow OTG in mid-November to you of all people...you should PM him a pic during every CAD event where he loses his snow pack in 51F rain while you are 32 with double digit snow pack.

I don't think he bragged, he posted pics and people responded that his front yard was bare and he asked to see there yards. 

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sure but always a watchful eye this time of year with so much deep snow to our NW, things like to pop up, couldn't ask for a better Nov in Eastern Canada

 

 

Yeah Aleutian low hasn't really reloaded by then...at least not as it stands on the ensembles right now. We got from the mild wx before T-day back to normal or slightly above unless the Aleutian low trends better as we get closer.

 

Yeah I suppose if we can grab a little ridging in Greenland maybe we can pop something. At least nrn Canada to about Hudson Bay look pretty chilly. The AO and NAO also don't become very positive either. Would be nice to grab something next weekend. 

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Yeah not sure why Will's acting that way. Was just wondering how much he had up there

As more of the wview web sites come up the more I am thinking about establishing a station, going to need some ching but I think it maybe time, love the format, love the layouts, here is Framingham Mass and Storrs Ct

 

http://weather.levineonline.net/

http://137.99.85.41/weather/index.html

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Lol at Kevin bragging about a coating of snow OTG in mid-November to you of all people...you should PM him a pic during every CAD event where he loses his snow pack in 51F rain while you are 32 with double digit snow pack.

I ribbed him first so it's all good. He has a coating while most of us have none so he's on top of the weenie world right now. I actually always hope he gets a lot of snow each winter. This place is fun when everyone is getting dumped on.
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