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November II Discussion


CapturedNature

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And yea with this forecast I would be very worried

Friday Partly cloudy, with a low around 19.

Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 43.

Saturday Night A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Rain. High near 51. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of

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The photos from outside the band today are so f'in cool.  I mean, where else can you find the localized impact that's occurring, yet not a couple miles away have a sunny day.  Its akin to a tornado with acute localized severe weather impact, while nearby is absolutely unaffected in any way.

 

buffalo3.jpg

 

ESPN on-air speaking with the trapped woman's ncaa basketball team, who have been stuck for 24 hours now...the coach said they are melting snow for drinking water and things of that nature.  This is national news stuff now, pretty impressive weather event.

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For points of reference, I believe October 2006 was under 10:1 ratios, November 20, 2000 had 12:1 ratios.  This is much colder than those two events.  It was cold enough to not have a great amount of lightning which is typical of extreme instability early season events. 

 

BUF tied it's record low max at 23 yesterday.  

 

Subjectively, it's not fluff but it's not heavy wet either, somewhere in between. 

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A better look again this morning on the ensembles in the 11-15 day. Slowly might be getting there, and I wonder if the strat warming is starting to act  on the upper troposphere through conduction. It still may be a struggle for consistent BN, but big cold in Canada is lurking over the border. Almost looks Nina-ish.

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A better look again this morning on the ensembles in the 11-15 day. Slowly might be getting there, and I wonder of the strat forming is starting to act  on the upper troposphere through conduction. It still may be a struggle for consistent BN, but big cold in Canada is lurking over the border. Almost looks Nina-ish.

I wonder if we are getting the kind of the same situation we saw at the end of October.  I.e. many of the models had a warm look for the beginning of November but one by one they got colder and colder.

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Much better look on Euro for Wednesday next week and beyond. Still an outside shot at a bit of snow mid week

 

No snow man. It's an overall slow process for improvement, but it's trying. Like I said..might not really until after the 10th or 15th, but of course that does not mean we can't grab something in between. The good news is that it's not a torch pattern other than the inferno prior to Wednesday.

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I wonder if we are getting the kind of the same situation we saw at the end of October.  I.e. many of the models had a warm look for the beginning of November but one by one they got colder and colder.

 

We'll need to weaken the Pacific jet a bit, but I could see a big cold blast moving into the Plains again after T-Day. The models have that look despite the solutions not showing it verbatim. 

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I have to remind myself that it's not yet deep winter when I get disappointed over temperature guidance tomorrow in the 40s...still a few ticks below for the date on the max which for BOS is 50 today.

 

I know it. It's not the anomalies like further west, but pretty darn good stuff. SST's now U40s. That's good for this time of year.

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I have to remind myself that it's not yet deep winter when I get disappointed over temperature guidance tomorrow in the 40s...still a few ticks below for the date on the max which for BOS is 50 today.

It has been in the teens at IMBY for over 36 hours .... it is suppose to be a normal 40s this coming Sunday and it is going to feel like Spring :lol:

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