ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Yeah OP is mad warm for shopping day...jogging club around the mall in shorts! The one constant seems to be the -EPO/Pac ridge remaining intact with a Nino like Aleutian Low...that always bodes well for us so I'm not as conerned with the handling of the PNA/RNA as long as we continue to see things work out at the high latitudes with modeling. Did you notice the Euro also builds a -NAO block but then makes it transient? If that feature stuck around that we see in the medium range, wouldn't it be a lot more wintry? Yes, if we can somehow build a good NAO block, then we'd be pretty cold and wintry given the available cold air in Canada. Guidance has been pretty against it so I'm not optimistic, but the NAO is one of those things that can sometimes show up with less warning than some of the large scale Pacific features. I'll be happy if we can form one in December. It's how 2002 managed to do well even though the PAC was volatile that month (before it locked in in the 2nd half of that winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Yes, if we can somehow build a good NAO block, then we'd be pretty cold and wintry given the available cold air in Canada. Guidance has been pretty against it so I'm not optimistic, but the NAO is one of those things that can sometimes show up with less warning than some of the large scale Pacific features. I'll be happy if we can form one in December. It's how 2002 managed to do well even though the PAC was volatile that month (before it locked in in the 2nd half of that winter) In general, I'm much more confident in the Pacific/Aleutian Low this year than any help from NAO blocking. The NAO wasn't always amazing last year, has generally faded a bit in our winters, and it's going to take time for the strat warming to influence the polar indices. I think the PAC ridge will trend our friend as wavelengths get longer and the strong -PNA/RNA feature showed on the 12z ECM becomes more of a flat trough tending towards SW Flow events, which are bread and butter by mid to late December for New England. As long as we maintain a PAC ridge/-EPO, Canada should stay cold, and that's going to help us as we get deeper especially considering the early snow cover across N America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Courtesy of Buffalo Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I'd like to experience one of these events just once in my lifetime. Yeah, me too. This is what I've been staring at all day: At my house: one inch of snow. At my in-laws' house seven miles away: four feet and still piling up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Yeah, me too. This is what I've been staring at all day: At my house: one inch of snow. At my in-laws' house seven miles away: four feet and still piling up. Ray would have gone to the shed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 If anything, the EC ensemble was showing a classic Scandinavian ridge pushing into Greenland. It's not a classic -NAO, but as Will showed yesterday in the PDII example, it can help. I'm not too worried about the NAO, esp later in the season. I think it will come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Probably classic euro dig happy at play there. Regardless, it's got pretty good heights in the EPAC so one can surmise the cold would push east eventually. Funny, the 12z EC ensembles support the OP more or less. They like the idea of more troughiness in the SW US and running a storm to our west near Black Friday...the run to run changes have been pretty volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I've seen 2 legit snow events on Thanksgiving (2005, and 1989) and only one on Christmas (2002). Kind of strange...but when you are narrowing it down to specific days, there's an enormous amount of variance in the results. Christmas has certainly had way more occurrences of snow on the ground than T-Day for me. Doing better than I am. We had 3.7" on Thanksgiving 2005 and flurries (and a high of 17) on T-Day 1989 as the good stuff stayed south. Haven't had a decent Christmas snow since 1978 in Ft. Kent, and that storm (16.5" on 12/25-27) is about it for decent 12/25 events since I became wx-aware in the 1950s, though the 12/24 thundersnow of 1966 makes up for that a bit. The 2002 storm was frustrating; forecast was something like 10-14" but the storm dodged to the right at the last minute. Only 1" at my place, 12 miles away in Belgrade Village they measured 8" and AUG had 15", less than 30 miles from me. In 16 years, total snowfall on 12/25 is 1.8". The only Dec day with less is the 5th, with 1.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Funny, the 12z EC ensembles support the OP more or less. They like the idea of more troughiness in the SW US and running a storm to our west near Black Friday...the run to run changes have been pretty volatile. Look at the end of them. Almost Nina-like with an Aleutian ridge trying to develop. Scandinavian ridge too. Central and nrn Canada looks very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Look at the end of them. Almost Nina-like with an Aleutian ridge trying to develop. Scandinavian ridge too. Central and nrn Canada looks very cold. What would the Aleutian ridge/Scandinavian ridge set up portend for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Look at the end of them. Almost Nina-like with an Aleutian ridge trying to develop. Scandinavian ridge too. Central and nrn Canada looks very cold. Yeah saw that...right now, I'd probably trust the long range about as much as I'd trust dead sea scroll weather accounts from 1640. A lot of uncertainty. I do like the semi-consistency of higher heights up there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Yeah saw that...right now, I'd probably trust the long range about as much as I'd trust dead sea scroll weather accounts from 1640. A lot of uncertainty. I do like the semi-consistency of higher heights up there though. Yeah big swings back and forth. Seems like it's slowly trying to regain a little more composure, but it will take time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Those obs out of ART have been mighty impressive today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 BOS now 32/7 at 4pm obs. Methinks we go lower vs guidance tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Mike Bettis live from his hotel in Hamburg was the sickiest live snow shot I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 BOS now 32/7 at 4pm obs. Methinks we go lower vs guidance tonight. 22.6/5 here in the hinterlands. Progged for 13* in the p/c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 This NY State Police photo of the Thruway south of BUF is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Ray would have gone to the shed. Does anyone know of a Utube video where someone has driven in and out of one of those Buffalo snow bands? Must be crazy going from nothing to whiteout within several city blocks. We all have seen storm chases but would love to see what it looks like driving in and out of one of these intense bands. Edit, just saw the timelapse above. Too bad the band was not shifting so we could see it come and overtake the camera! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 5 miles separates 51" vs 2". I honestly would swallow a shotgun if I lived north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 5 miles separates 51" vs 2". I honestly would swallow a shotgun if I lived north. That is staggering. 22.2/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 5 miles separates 51" vs 2". I honestly would swallow a shotgun if I lived north. I would move. I seriously couldn't take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Cold night. Feels like mid winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I would move. I seriously couldn't take that Instant depression for many on this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Instant depression for many on this board Thank goodness they're only subjecting themselves to the long, drawn-out version instead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Instant depression for many on this board we thought a weenie suicide during a "small" 1'-2' blizzard not happening was bad, this would be the end to all ends for weenie suicides in fell swoop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 5 miles separates 51" vs 2". I honestly would swallow a shotgun if I lived north. Almost as comical as the utter disgust of heavy snow in ORH and heavy 32.1 rain on the Tolland masiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 5 miles separates 51" vs 2". I honestly would swallow a shotgun if I lived north.no you wouldn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I wonder how much "compression" comes into play with these huge amounts of snow. With that much snow and fluff factor the new snow must just really compress the bottom layer. Depending on how often you measure will really change the total amount. At 50" I bet you would need 2" to fall to add 1" to the total pack. Maybe more maybe less. Waiting till the lake effect is over and taking one measurement will give you very different results than every 6 hours or whatever the "official" way of measuring is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 no you wouldn't I would probably cry. It would be worse than the heartbreak of Edouard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I wonder how much "compression" comes into play with these huge amounts of snow. With that much snow and fluff factor the new snow must just really compress the bottom layer. Depending on how often you measure will really change the total amount. At 50" I bet you would need 2" to fall to add 1" to the total pack. Maybe more maybe less. Waiting till the lake effect is over and taking one measurement will give you very different results than every 6 hours or whatever the "official" way of measuring is Yeah - especially with how fluffy the snow is. I imagine how you measure snow makes a huge difference up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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