40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Ryan Hanrahan ✔ @ryanhanrahan Follow Incredible. @NWSBUFFALO now forecasting 70" of snow off Lake Erie including South Buffalo and the immediate southeast suburbs. I've been in that thread all morning. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, winter certainly is not "settling" in with a few mild days on the horizon, but that is not a big deal at this stage. The overall pattern is still about as favorable for winter at this stage as one can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Plows getting stuck in Buffalo, fake effect doesn't do that. Meat in them potatoes 4' of snow in about 18 hours is going to incapacitate travel...I don't care what the ratios are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 link to my exaggerated posts? A 36 hr reprieve will be more than 60 hrs. That was also a response to some ignoring the pattern 2 weeks ago when we said it wasn't a lock. Also, calling for strictly AN for the first two weeks was not my call. People are antsy, but I don't know why some just can't accept relaxations. I don't think anything has changed for winter. If anything, I feel better as time goes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 You two just need to get a room... Mild up seems to be trending a bit earlier but getting over sooner, which I would prefer. I still am not seeing anything really pointing at a winter coming in full bore until after the first week in Dec. Hopefully that will move up a few days as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 THISAFTERNOON HeavySnow High: 25 °F TONIGHT HeavySnow Low: 19 °F WEDNESDAY HeavySnow High: 29 °F WEDNESDAYNIGHT HeavySnow Low: 27 °F THURSDAY HeavySnow High: 28 °F THURSDAYNIGHT SnowLikely Low: 21 °F God bless you, Hamburg, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Well...Thursday night is meh for them...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 You two just need to get a room... Mild up seems to be trending a bit earlier but getting over sooner, which I would prefer. I still am not seeing anything really pointing at a winter coming in full bore until after the first week in Dec. Hopefully that will move up a few days as well. I'd rather that. The longer it is delayed, the better I feel about my call for a white Christmas, quite frankly.....lets waste the atmospheric ambivalence now, not once the curtain lifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I've been in that thread all morning. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, winter certainly is not "settling" in with a few mild days on the horizon, but that is not a big deal at this stage. The overall pattern is still about as favorable for winter at this stage as one can get. I think the last time winter "settled in" here in November was late nov 1989. Then winter promptly exited 12/31. I suppose you could make a case for 1995 too but I remember some mildness the first few days of December before we locked in. I'd have to go back and look it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 looks more like spring is settling in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 THIS AFTERNOON Heavy Snow High: 25 °F TONIGHT Heavy Snow Low: 19 °F WEDNESDAY Heavy Snow High: 29 °F WEDNESDAY NIGHT Heavy Snow Low: 27 °F THURSDAY Heavy Snow High: 28 °F THURSDAY NIGHT Snow Likely Low: 21 °F God bless you, Hamburg, NY. Just "snow", as opposed to heavy snow on Thrusday night....I'll bet they are up in arms that winter couldn't "lock in".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I'd rather that. The longer it is delayed, the better I feel about my call for a white Christmas, quite frankly.....lets waste the atmospheric ambivalence now, not once the curtain lifts. Agreed. I don't know how the atmosphere really compensates over the long term, but it seems that if things come in too soon, it gets wasted a bit before we can really start spinning up wintry coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Just "snow", as opposed to heavy snow on Thrusday night....I'll bet they are up in arms that winter couldn't "lock in".... Sarah McLaughlin playing on Thursday in Hamburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I don't think winter is locking in at all. Seems like a bit of a yo-yo over the next several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Agreed. I don't know how the atmosphere really compensates over the long term, but it seems that if things come in too soon, it gets wasted a bit before we can really start spinning up wintry coastals. Well, lets think simplistically. Lets just say that the SAI inducued assault on the PV lasts for about 6 weeks. Would you rather that break down during the holidays, or towards the end of February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Just "snow", as opposed to heavy snow on Thrusday night....I'll bet they are up in arms that winter couldn't "lock in".... Imagine how depressed they'll be on Thursday night. Suicide watches galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Especially as someone who resides near/just above sea level on the cp, inside of I 495.....I'm just fine allowing the ssts to cool a bit more before the we have wound up coastals tossing the oceans breath up aginast my wall of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Well, lets think simplistically. Lets just say that the SAI inducued assault on the PV lasts for about 6 weeks. Would you rather that break down during the holidays, or towards the end of February? Exactly. Obviously more going on than just that, but it is a playah It is possible to just pull the handle and get 7-7-7 several pulls in a row, but that is hard to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Especially as someone who resides near/just above sea level on the cp, inside of I 495.....I'm just fine allowing the ssts to cool a bit more before the we have wound up coastals tossing the oceans breath up aginast my wall of snow. I wonder how many big coastals have happened in early December when winter pooped out early? Do that happen more frequently in short winters vs better/longer ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Especially as someone who resides near/just above sea level on the cp, inside of I 495.....I'm just fine allowing the ssts to cool a bit more before the we have wound up coastals tossing the oceans breath up aginast my wall of snow. Yeah, they can cool off as much as they like, as far as I'm concerned. Not like the thing is gonna freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Beginning of next week is a furnace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Especially as someone who resides near/just above sea level on the cp, inside of I 495.....I'm just fine allowing the ssts to cool a bit more before the we have wound up coastals tossing the oceans breath up aginast my wall of snow. I said the same thing yesterday too. Lets get the pattern going when it's more climo favorable for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I don't think winter is locking in at all. Seems like a bit of a yo-yo over the next several weeks. I would bet money that we see a few 50+ days in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I wonder how many big coastals have happened in early December when winter pooped out early? Do that happen more frequently in short winters vs better/longer ones? 2003 crapped out in my area because it was dry. 1997 certainly crapped out, but that event was later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I would much rather a white Christmas, then a white Thanksgiving. I think I have seen it snow more on Thanksgiving, then on Christmas, frustrating really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 GEFS looking better after being horrific lately. Hopefully that's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Winter may not be settling in for good, but I'll let you know how watching tonight's 7pm soccer game feels in the mid to upper 20s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I would much rather a white Christmas, then a white Thanksgiving. I think I have seen it snow more on Thanksgiving, then on Christmas, frustrating really. I've seen 2 legit snow events on Thanksgiving (2005, and 1989) and only one on Christmas (2002). Kind of strange...but when you are narrowing it down to specific days, there's an enormous amount of variance in the results. Christmas has certainly had way more occurrences of snow on the ground than T-Day for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I've seen 2 legit snow events on Thanksgiving (2005, and 1989) and only one on Christmas (2002). Kind of strange...but when you are narrowing it down to specific days, there's an enormous amount of variance in the results. Christmas has certainly had way more occurrences of snow on the ground than T-Day for me. If I remember right 2002, was a pretty big snowstorm starting in the afternoon. That one had a lot of wind with it. I was living in Mendon and I believe we lost power and had to use the fireplace to heat the house. Slept in front of it. Am I remembering that correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I would bet money that we see a few 50+ days in December. Heck, many of us saw several 65+ days last December, It happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 If I remember right 2002, was a pretty big snowstorm starting in the afternoon. That one had a lot of wind with it. I was living in Mendon and I believe we lost power and had to use the fireplace to heat the house. Slept in front of it. Am I remembering that correctly? Yes. However I recall it starting around daybreak, though it didn't really get going in earnest until afternoon, so you are right in terms of the real meaningful impact of the storm. The snow was quite light for the first 6 hours You were probably flirting with the sleet line a lot in Mendon during the height of storm and had some pasty snow. Not surprised you lost power in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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