CT Valley Snowman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Snow vs cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 On 11/18/2014 at 1:06 PM, weathafella said: So it looks to me we average well below normal from now though months end. The first week in December may be much milder before we start rocking winter say in the 12/10-18 period. A huge winter is on the doorstep friends. I'll take it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 1.59" storm rain total. Looks boring for the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 BOS had a departure of -1 yesterday, the "warm" day of the week. Month to date is -1.8. Should be near -3 by months end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 looking at it from my point of view, there is some decent support for a pre-thanksgiving storm it's definitely not overwhelming.the antecedent air mass looks marginal at best, so it would be a real thread the needle proposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I definitely wouldn't get my hopes up near T-Day. If it happens, great....but not worth getting hopes up at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 On 11/18/2014 at 1:35 PM, CoastalWx said: I definitely wouldn't get my hopes up near T-Day. If it happens, great....but not worth getting hopes up at the moment. Agree. Still a long shot. The surer bet is the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I am envisioning a couple inches OTG as we all sit down to eat the T-giving meal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 On 11/18/2014 at 1:40 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I am envisioning a couple inches OTG as we all sit down to eat the T-giving mealKeep dreaming bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 On 11/18/2014 at 1:40 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I am envisioning a couple inches OTG as we all sit down to eat the T-giving meal I think we all envision this but reality likely will provide a different picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 On 11/18/2014 at 1:43 PM, weathafella said: I think we all envision this but reality likely will provide a different picture.Perhaps. 50/50 chance IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 There is actually better support for the clipper-esque system the day after T-day rather than the anafrontal system the day before. Problem is that the ensembles track it too far north for us. The OP track would give us more of a chance. That one just appeared on guidance last night so we'll see if it is still there as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Temp's continuing to drop under mostly cloudy sky with random flakes flying here and there. A wintry feel. 26.4/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 On 11/18/2014 at 1:28 PM, weathafella said: BOS had a departure of -1 yesterday, the "warm" day of the week. Month to date is -1.8. Should be near -3 by months end. PVD was a +6 yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Anyone ever figure out why LES bands over Buffalo always have the heaviest echoes right on the nrn edge of the band? The ones at the Tug Hill always have the heaviest echoes sort of in the center of the band. It must be a subsidence thing, but this isn't the first time I've seen that. Seems unique to Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 On 11/18/2014 at 1:58 PM, CoastalWx said: Anyone ever figure out why LES bands over Buffalo always have the heaviest echoes right on the nrn edge of the band? The ones at the Tug Hill always have the heaviest echoes sort of in the center of the band. It must be a subsidence thing, but this isn't the first time I've seen that. Seems unique to Lake Erie. I have been trying to find the answer to this question forever... Any thoughts? The tug has the strongest in the center of the band because of orographic lift lift due to elevation. I am not sure what the deal is off Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 On 11/18/2014 at 1:42 PM, dan123 said: Keep dreaming bud Exactly. Like Scooter said, I wouldn't be getting my hopes up at this point. 6-7 days away is a long time to be saying a 50/50 shot. Let's see how things progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 On 11/18/2014 at 2:00 PM, BuffaloWeather said: I have been trying to find the answer to this question forever... Any thoughts? The tug has the strongest in the center of the band because of orographic lift lift due to elevation. I am not sure what the deal is off Erie. Would elevation do that? I'm not sure it would matter when it comes to that. Maybe it's sinking area on the north side combined with drier air moving off of Ontario peninsula. The srn edge of the band still had it's origins off the water so perhaps it helps that part of the band? But it's interesting to me. When a good band gets going, winds back into the bands to replace all that rising air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 On 11/18/2014 at 2:00 PM, WinterWolf said: Exactly. Like Scooter said, I wouldn't be getting my hopes up at this point. 6-7 days away is a long time to be saying a 50/50 shot. Let's see how things progress. I certainly would not rule anything out, but I know deep down weenies want something to work out. It's just not worth setting yourself up. Hopefully it gains traction as we get closer. Enjoy a cold week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 On 11/18/2014 at 2:03 PM, CoastalWx said: Would elevation do that? I'm not sure it would matter when it comes to that. Maybe it's sinking area on the north side combined with drier air moving off of Ontario peninsula. The srn edge of the band still had it's origins off the water so perhaps it helps that part of the band? But it's interesting to me. When a good band gets going, winds back into the bands to replace all that rising air. Prob the Niagara escarpment. The elevation to the north is lower so if inflow into the band from the north will he upslope. Inflow from the south will be downslope. Might be enough to make the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 some flurries making it all the way down into town here. wintry appeal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Doubt that event before thanksgiving pans out. A marginal thread the needle setup thats still 8-9 days away. Maybe we pull something out, but the odds are stacked against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 On 11/18/2014 at 2:08 PM, ORH_wxman said: Prob the Niagara escarpment. The elevation to the north is lower so if inflow into the band from the north will he upslope. Inflow from the south will be downslope. Might be enough to make the difference That makes sense. Check this photo out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 On 11/18/2014 at 12:52 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Probably should flip the yard stick (I presume it is) Around the other way............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 On 11/18/2014 at 2:16 PM, dryslot said: Probably should flip the yard stick (I presume it is) Around the other way............... Going to need 2 yardsticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 On 11/18/2014 at 2:21 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Going to need 2 yardsticks. At least, A depth pole comes in handy for that instance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 On 11/18/2014 at 2:08 PM, ORH_wxman said: Prob the Niagara escarpment. The elevation to the north is lower so if inflow into the band from the north will he upslope. Inflow from the south will be downslope. Might be enough to make the difference But you can see this right on down through Lake Erie. It's really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Just saw this picture from Buffalo, I'm guessing some of this is flawed by blowing snow but still looks impressive. https://twitter.com/WGRZ/status/534691498856820736 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 still much cloudier across northern Connecticut and southern Connecticut, I drove through the clear line just north of HFD and I barely see a cloud now down in HVN. interesting however that it was 32.7 when I left my house and 1 hour and 15 minutes later its was 31.1 in Milford despite the sunshine, definitely some serious cold air advection going on and definitely the trajectory favoring southwestern areas even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 On 11/18/2014 at 2:41 PM, CTValleySnowMan said: still much cloudier across northern Connecticut and southern Connecticut, I drove through the clear line just north of HFD and I barely see a cloud now down in HVN. interesting however that it was 32.7 when I left my house and 1 hour and 15 minutes later its was 31.1 in Milford despite the sunshine, definitely some serious cold air advection going on and definitely the trajectory favoring southwestern areas even more. Yeah I was mentioning last night how CAA was so strong that we'd probably see temps falling during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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