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November II Discussion


CapturedNature

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Yup, hit 47 earlier. Looks like the warmth is going to make 1 last push up here, temps rising again.

Taking a peek at models for the first time in a week or so. I like the euro towards hr 240... and later into the run. We have brief warmups, but looks like a reload is there. The same ridging we have into western na now looks to make a return. Another trof swings down from Canada. Some cold should be squeezed down south for another arctic intrusion late that run. (fwiw)

 

Looks like the ensembles like the idea but it comes and goes pretty fast. Mean (way out) raises heights over the northeast in early December. (fwiw)

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Ok just want to be clear. You are going with normal to above with little snow thru early Dec? Or am I misinterpreting your forecast?

After thanksgiving it gets dicey. The only thing that may help out is the arctic block. That is the feature that may help bring the cold down. Otherwise I think near to AN temps through at least the 10th. Snow is more fickle then temps especially inland. I don't think it's a torch, but far from a wintry pattern.

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After thanksgiving it gets dicey. The only thing that may help out is the arctic block. That is the feature that may help bring the cold down. Otherwise I think near to AN temps through at least the 10th. Snow is more fickle then temps especially inland. I don't think it's a torch, but far from a wintry pattern.

Any hints we get something more favorable mid month or later?

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After thanksgiving it gets dicey. The only thing that may help out is the arctic block. That is the feature that may help bring the cold down. Otherwise I think near to AN temps through at least the 10th. Snow is more fickle then temps especially inland. I don't think it's a torch, but far from a wintry pattern.

I think we start off Dec slightly above normal. We'll see where it goes from there.

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Any hints we get something more favorable mid month or later?

Yeah there are hints. I think mid month give it take a week is what I would favor.

I could be far off too. Maybe we sneak a 6"

Snow in amid seasonable temps. Who knows, but that's my gut. Bottom line is that it's a pattern that isn't a torch, but isn't necessarily wintry. However, you can't rule out a snow event either, especially inland. We are entering the time if year where the interior can start to do that.

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Yeah there are hints. I think mid month give it take a week is what I would favor.

I could be far off too. Maybe we sneak a 6"

Snow in amid seasonable temps. Who knows, but that's my gut. Bottom line is that it's a pattern that isn't a torch, but isn't necessarily wintry. However, you can't rule out a snow event either, especially inland. We are entering the time if year where the interior can start to do that.

 

Yeah trying to forecast snow is pretty fruitless at that lead time...could end up above normal by a degree in the means, but you get an advisory snow event that sneaks in somehow and Blizz will jam it down your throat that you called for NO SNOW.

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Not here 37.9

It literally rose to 50.1 .. Stayed there for a minute and immediately dropped. Now all the way back down to 41.9. I see that happen often in the winter in these setups. With snowpack it may have risen ever so briefly to like 44 or 45 and then dropped right back to low -mid 30's. It may not be the true war front but more likely some warm air aloft right around 1,000 feet. It's an interesting phenomenon
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It literally rose to 50.1 .. Stayed there for a minute and immediately dropped. Now all the way back down to 41.9. I see that happen often in the winter in these setups. With snowpack it may have risen ever so briefly to like 44 or 45 and then dropped right back to low -mid 30's. It may not be the true war front but more likely some warm air aloft right around 1,000 feet. It's an interesting phenomenon[/quote

yeah take a ride down west of 83 in Ellington and it probably never hit 40. I used to live off 83 in Ellington and saw that scenario several times.

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