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November II Discussion


CapturedNature

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Moisture is quite shallow tomorrow and windex parameters are pretty "meh"...so outside of the typical spots in Berkshire county and Litchfield county on the west slope that do well with LES leftovers, I don't see much in the way outside of a few flurries.

 

Obviously you can't rule out a rogue streamer making it a bit further and briefly lowering vis with a heavier burst, but the shallow moisture will cause them to die fairly quickly.

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You thought I was going to have heavy icing.  I haven't had icing since it started raining hard at 8:00a.m.. 

 

Accretion isn't going to happen at 31* in rain of any significance, it will just serve to wash away what's on the trees.

 

32.1/31

 

 

That's not true...much of the crippling 2008 ice storm occurred with temps around 31F IMBY and pretty heavy rain falling too.

 

It's not easy to do, but if you have a nice source of lower dewpoints feeding into the region to offset latent heat, then it's attainable. Of course, this setup did not have that with a retreating high well off the coast, so light icing was all that was going to happen.

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Kevin you have to be one of the most aggressive forecasters I've ever seen. Definitely an all or nothing kind of guy.

I learned in life a long time ago, if you don't give it all you've got and go all in,, life will swallow you up. You'll end up degreed, working in a different field, eating grilled cheese sandwiches and tomato soup in moms basement every night. Of course if that's what one desires, then more power to them.
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I learned in life a long time ago, if you don't give it all you've got and go all in,, life will swallow you up. You'll end up degreed, working in a different field, eating grilled cheese sandwiches and tomato soup in moms basement every night. Of course if that's what one desires, then more power to them.

 

This is the most ridiculous post ever.

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Could be some pretty impressive streamers.  I don't know if I'd hold out hope for an inch or two, but with lake effect squalls you never know in very isolated spots.  Could be a bunch of flurries or 3sm -SHSN that moves through.  The best part is it looks to come all the way from Lake Erie down there, while we are getting Lake Ontario left-overs up here.

 

Berkshire and Litchfield Counties down there would be the most likely spots with the light upslope assist.

 

Advisory snows for West Chesterfield.

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I learned in life a long time ago, if you don't give it all you've got and go all in,, life will swallow you up. You'll end up degreed, working in a different field, eating grilled cheese sandwiches and tomato soup in moms basement every night. Of course if that's what one desires, then more power to them.

What does putting effort into life have anything to do with forecasting? Haha dude you continue to surprise and amaze.

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can't see what euro shows between 216/240 but does not look like a cutter.. would be nice to get 1-2" pre-turkey.

 

It has a marginal snow event...but it is essentially another needle-threader. It's too far out to make any useful analysis over it other than the longwave pattern as depicted by ensemble guidance suggests a needle-threader if we were to try and get a snow event.

 

It would be nice to get one right before Thanksgiving, but I'm not holding my breath over this one...not yet anyway.

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I learned in life a long time ago, if you don't give it all you've got and go all in,, life will swallow you up. You'll end up degreed, working in a different field, eating grilled cheese sandwiches and tomato soup in moms basement every night. Of course if that's what one desires, then more power to them.

:weenie:

This is quite frankly absurd.

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It has a marginal snow event...but it is essentially another needle-threader. It's too far out to make any useful analysis over it other than the longwave pattern as depicted by ensemble guidance suggests a needle-threader if we were to try and get a snow event.

 

It would be nice to get one right before Thanksgiving, but I'm not holding my breath over this one...not yet anyway.

 

I'm targeting December 19th for stormy times. Anything before that would be uncivilized.

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