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November II Discussion


CapturedNature

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OT but with my made really ridiculous with the required de icing in Denver due to a nice snow burst I sprinted to my gate. Felt good, I remember many a run in cold rain with water sloshing around in my running shoes....awful.

Yup exactly how it was this morning..Could feel it squishing in the shoes/socks..I also hit a big puddle..even though I knew it was going to be there.still hit it

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if we keep laying down this white carpet to our west and north, eventually one of these storms is not going to be able to attack the cold high pressure and snow pack as the seasonal jet continues to shift southward and the baroclinic zone sets up more favorably along the coast, as long as we stay away from some of the dreaded teleconnections we are going to start delivering in December.

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if we keep laying down this white carpet to our west and north, eventually one of these storms is not going to be able to attack the cold high pressure and snow pack as the seasonal jet continues to shift southward and the baroclinic zone sets up more favorably along the coast, as long as we stay away from some of the dreaded teleconnections we are going to start delivering in December.

:weenie:

 

That will only help if the mid levels are far enough se, which is completely free of any cryospheric influence.

Could still help with ice, though.

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:weenie:

 

That will only help if the mid levels are far enough se, which is completely free of any cryospheric influence.

Could still help with ice, though.

I'm not entirely convinced your statement is true. It would seem that the cryosphere most certainly has an effect upstairs.

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I'm not entirely convinced your statement is true. It would seem that the cryosphere most certainly has an effect upstairs.

 

 

Yeah it does...over the course of weeks, it definitely does. In a given individual storm, he's right that it has little influence...but between now and Dec 10th as an example, the cryosphere will be helping cool all layers up through the mid-levels. So a much deeper layer of cold will be entrenched and the mid-level low tracking from the OH valley will have more trouble dislodging the cold.

 

Hence, a typical SWFE we get in Dec but have a hard time coming by in late Nov.

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Yeah it does...over the course of weeks, it definitely does. In a given individual storm, he's right that it has little influence...but between now and Dec 10th as an example, the cryosphere will be helping cool all layers up through the mid-levels. So a much deeper layer of cold will be entrenched and the mid-level low tracking from the OH valley will have more trouble dislodging the cold.

 

Hence, a typical SWFE we get in Dec but have a hard time coming by in late Nov.

That is what I meant.

 

I was speaking more of that weenie myth that you can get a cutter when you have a deep snowpack.

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That is what I meant.

 

 

It's kind of a semantics argument. 6 inches of snow on the ground in southern New England won't cause a mid-level low to go from a PIT to BTV track to a track over BOS....but there's no doubt that deep snowpack right up through Quebec will influence it. It depends on the scale we are talking.

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It's kind of a semantics argument. 6 inches of snow on the ground in southern New England won't cause a mid-level low to go from a PIT to BTV track to a track over BOS....but there's no doubt that deep snowpack right up through Quebec will influence it. It depends on the scale we are talking.

I think we each know what the other is saying.

I just wrote a paper on the land, sea and atmospheric feedback proccesses, so I'm not enitrely ignorant to that phenomena; however it can sometimes be overstated with regard to indovidual events, as you have just conceeded.

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I think we each know what the other is saying.

I just wrote a paper on the land, sea and atmospheric feedback proccesses, so I'm not enitrely ignorant to that phenomena; however it can sometimes be overstated with regard to indovidual events, as you have just conceeded.

But I think the original poster was referring to the process that Will is describing. Iow.....we know you know this stuff but you didn't state it well or appropriately nuanced in your response.

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if we keep laying down this white carpet to our west and north, eventually one of these storms is not going to be able to attack the cold high pressure and snow pack as the seasonal jet continues to shift southward and the baroclinic zone sets up more favorably along the coast, as long as we stay away from some of the dreaded teleconnections we are going to start delivering in December.

 

 

But I think the original poster was referring to the process that Will is describing. Iow.....we know you know this stuff but you didn't state it well or appropriately nuanced in your response.

My eye keyed in on "one", which is why I approached the issue from that perspective.

 

I should have read on.

My fault.

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