Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Euro Ens getting the 4 wave idea better now,look for GOAK,Aleuts anamolies to deepen. Strat warming still there, good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Euro ensembles look fine after T-day...we get the well-advertised warm-up in the few days leading into Thanksgiving, but the pattern reloads a bit. It's not frigid like we just had, but half decent cold. The GOA low could retrograde in time for a nice setup going into early December...that's extrapolating way out, but it would be very nice since the whole time, the heights north of AK remain high most of the run so we never lose cross polar. That means once the PNA spikes again, we'd get cold...or if the NAO went solidly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 It had always seemed to the doom and gloom was way over the top led by the usual characters. Why so angry? I don't think too many were doom and gloom. Maybe I missed a few posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Euro ensembles look fine after T-day...we get the well-advertised warm-up in the few days leading into Thanksgiving, but the pattern reloads a bit. It's not frigid like we just had, but half decent cold. The GOA low could retrograde in time for a nice setup going into early December...that's extrapolating way out, but it would be very nice since the whole time, the heights north of AK remain high most of the run so we never lose cross polar. That means once the PNA spikes again, we'd get cold...or if the NAO went solidly negative. We had that talk in house regarding those heights. You'll never get a torch pattern if those remain high, even if the Pacific tries to invade. That's a good sign going forward. The AO refuses to go +. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Why so angry? I don't think too many were doom and gloom. Maybe I missed a few posts.lol, a zero degree snow day kept me grinning for 2 weeks last year, but like Tip I am not emotionally invested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 It had always seemed to the doom and gloom was way over the top led by the usual characters. People just stating what models showed a few days ago. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 We had that talk in house regarding those heights. You'll never get a torch pattern if those remain high, even if the Pacific tries to invade. That's a good sign going forward. The AO refuses to go +. Def better looking than the GEFS...GEFS were lower heights up in most of the arctic domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Snow cover in Canada is phenomenal, shortest days of the year. Our refrigerator is set on max cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Snow cover in Canada is phenomenal, shortest days of year. Our refrigerator is set on max cooling. Yeah as long as you keep the PAC firehose shutoff, it will stay really cold there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Well when the weeklies came out and Kevin flipped and a few others came along it read doom and gloom. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Wait I thought the Euro had the snow on day 6? Why are people crying rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 It's 11/16 This is bonus cold/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Well when the weeklies came out and Kevin flipped and a few others came along it read doom and gloom. That's all. There's some unrealistic expectations every November. That's why I call it the month of 240 hour fantasies. Nothing wrong with a bit of PAC reshuffling. May be a bit up and down for a bit after T-day but biasing on the cold side I'd guess. But it's not the worst thing. I'd love to really reload and lock the pattern back in around 12/7-12/10 when the climo is screaming downward toward cold/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I don't get it really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 There's some unrealistic expectations every November. That's why I call it the month of 240 hour fantasies. Nothing wrong with a bit of PAC reshuffling. May be a bit up and down for a bit after T-day but biasing on the cold side I'd guess. But it's not the worst thing. I'd love to really reload and lock the pattern back in around 12/7-12/10 when the climo is screaming downward toward cold/snow. I don't get it really I think it's an issue of impatience, not expectations. I'm very impatient. 33.0/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I think it's an issue of impatience, not expectations. I'm very impatient. 33.0/23 Well, I could see some of it if it was Jan, But not november Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I think it's an issue of impatience, not expectations. I'm very impatient. 33.0/23 Drink less coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The problem with early season cold is exactly what is taking place...peeps get antsy for real snow. Some years it seems to stay warm right into December but then when the cold comes it starts snowing immediately. Other years it'll be cold for a month before we get any events. Weenies like cold...because it brings snow. We've got the cold pattern, now they want the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The problem with early season cold is exactly what is taking place...peeps get antsy for real snow. Some years it seems to stay warm right into December but then when the cold comes it starts snowing immediately. Other years it'll be cold for a month before we get any events. Weenies like cold...because it brings snow. We've got the cold pattern, now they want the snow. Or some weenies like cold because they can make snow................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Or some weenies like cold because they can make snow................. perfect, trying to distant himself from weenie nation, pfffft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The problem with early season cold is exactly what is taking place...peeps get antsy for real snow. Some years it seems to stay warm right into December but then when the cold comes it starts snowing immediately. Other years it'll be cold for a month before we get any events. Weenies like cold...because it brings snow. We've got the cold pattern, now they want the snow. And some years just suck. 33.0/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The problem with early season cold is exactly what is taking place...peeps get antsy for real snow. Some years it seems to stay warm right into December but then when the cold comes it starts snowing immediately. Other years it'll be cold for a month before we get any events. Weenies like cold...because it brings snow. We've got the cold pattern, now they want the snow. There's a reason there's a real dearth of good snow events in November in a good chunk of New England...esp the first 2-3 weeks of the month. It's tough to get good shortwaves to amplify south enough and east enough to get a real solid event. Big overrunning events are tough with the lack of deep snow cover to the north to really help hold the low level cold dome south to combat the still very warm waters to our south. Natural baroclinic zone is further NW...there's multiple factors working against us this time of the year. Most of our events are little weak clippers...or they are marginal slop weak events like we saw on 11/2 and then again last week. Every once in a while you roll snake eyes and get a 11/7/12 type event or a 11/11/87 event, but there's a reason those events that drop 6"+ are like once or twice per decade...maybe 3 times in SNE depending on location. We get lots of cold shots in November on NW flow, but the cold has a real hard time holding in for storms due to the above factors already mentioned. A -10C 850mb airmass in mid-November is not the same as one in January as it pertains to storms...because the dynamics of CAD and baroclinicity are just not the same yet as mid-winter. It does start getting a bit easier the final week of the month where more 6"+ events start dotting the climo historical charts, but even then, it's still silly to actually expect it...and I preach this as an ORH hills native where it's easier than much of the rest of the region to get November snow events of significance. That said, we still have a shot late next week for something, so it's certainly worth watching. But I'd keep expectations low for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Wxmeddler tweeted this out off a NAM sounding in Buffalo for epic LES, Superadiabatic lapse rate to 850mb. -30ub/s VV at 850mb. 1900 j/kg lake CAPE. Mixing to tropopause. WOW. #nywx http://t.co/iGxuF5egk1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 perfect, trying to distant himself from weenie nation, pfffft We know better.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Wxmeddler tweeted this out off a NAM sounding in Buffalo for epic LES, Superadiabatic lapse rate to 850mb. -30ub/s VV at 850mb. 1900 j/kg lake CAPE. Mixing to tropopause. WOW. #nywx http://t.co/iGxuF5egk1 Epic, What a great setup for LES so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 perfect, trying to distant himself from weenie nation, pfffft I'm a full blown weenie...just like you. Not trying to distance anything, haha. You know that with the cold comes thoughts of snow, and the longer it's cold without a snowstorm the more antsy the more emotionally-driven weenies get, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 just stating what the models are showing is not doom and gloom, I still believe most of us in here believe we are going to have a good solid New England winter. Many teleconnections and analogs are setting up positively but when a model gives you something and then takes it away on a later run it is only natural to voice some frustration even though you know the overall picture is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I've been at various events all day.. Did I read wrong before or weren't there posts saying the Friday event looked good on the Euro? Or has the whining been a result of it Losing the Storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Just got back to Greenfield and saw that it got down to 18F this morning in my hood. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Or some weenies like cold because they can make snow................. This pattern is only acceptable in November. This shiznit in January (see last January) would be totally unacceptable from Mother Nature, lol. Below normal temps in the means but rain as the dominant precip type when systems hit. Snowmaking fun this time of year makes the cold worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.