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November II Discussion

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

26 for the low but went to grocery store and it was 19 at 500 feet

 

Must be warmer up this way--though I would have thought we'd have clouded at the same rate of some of the CT folks.

 

I got to 21,8 at 3:30, but we've climbed since that point to the current 24.5/19.  I went for a drive down toward Hippy's place along the Green River (ravine-like area) into Lyden and then along the VT/Colrain line.  The whole way was reading 23-25 in the car.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

For the LES win:  my ex's summer place on the Tug (yes, they'd only use it in the summer in spite of the fact that it's a year-round home.  Ugh!!).

 

Today: Cloudy. Scattered flurries late. Highs in the lower 30s. Light winds...becoming south 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight: A chance of snow showers in the evening...then snow likely overnight. Accumulation around an inch. Lows in the upper 20s. South winds around 10 mph...becoming light. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Monday: Snow. Additional accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Highs ranging from the lower 30s on the tug hill to the mid 30s across the lower elevations. Southeast winds 10 mph or less. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Monday Night: Lake effect snow. Snow may be heavy at times overnight. Lows in the mid 20s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph... Increasing to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Tuesday: Lake effect snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Cold with highs in the upper 20s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Tuesday Night: Lake effect snow. Areas of blowing snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Lows 15 to 20. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Wednesday: Lake effect snow. Highs in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 80 percent.

Wednesday Night: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows 15 to 20.

Thursday: Lake effect snow likely. Highs around 30. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Thursday Night: Lake effect snow likely. Lows around 15. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the upper 20s.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows 15 to 20.

Saturday: Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the upper 20s.


 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

D6 Euro still compelling...everything else is pretty boring to me. Don't see much for tonight except maybe a brief period at the onset..esp Rt 2 region in central/W MA and northward, but the lack of good ageostrophic northerly flow should limit the extent of any icing to minor.

 

Wind fetish folks may get thrown a bone though on the Cape.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

D6 Euro still compelling...everything else is pretty boring to me. Don't see much for tonight except maybe a brief period at the onset..esp Rt 2 region in central/W MA and northward, but the lack of good ageostrophic northerly flow should limit the extent of any icing to minor.

 

Wind fetish folks may get thrown a bone though on the Cape.

 

Any fun ideas for tonight/tomorrow ended with Saturday's 00z model runs.

 

We move on.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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I also wonder if the cold shot Fri-Sat has the chance to be the coldest yet..esp here in ern MA. The cold delivery mid week is not ideal, but the airmass is so cold that it won't matter. Later this week looks more of a NW flow delivery. It also depends on what happens with any threat near day 6.

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Modfan

Modfan

Posted
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I also wonder if the cold shot Fri-Sat has the chance to be the coldest yet..esp here in ern MA. The cold delivery mid week is not ideal, but the airmass is so cold that it won't matter. Later this week looks more of a NW flow delivery. It also depends on what happens with any threat near day 6.

And if you read your post it sounds like mid January not mid November!

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I also wonder if the cold shot Fri-Sat has the chance to be the coldest yet..esp here in ern MA. The cold delivery mid week is not ideal, but the airmass is so cold that it won't matter. Later this week looks more of a NW flow delivery. It also depends on what happens with any threat near day 6.

 

Right, our best cold is usually a sneaky sort of N-door drift when the preceding 7-day period had that GGEM 10-Day anomalies in the -4 SD region over eastern Ontario.   You reach for your car's door handle and, "ooch ooch - Christ is that cold!", and you can't really sustain any grip on your steering wheel.  

 

...Or, we missed the D7 Euro monster that nudged east for no apparent physical reason yet did so ... and is pounding NS with a historic New England COC-tease. But hell hath no fury like backside 50mph NNW dry cryospheric non-lubricated personal violation... When I was kid, on-camera Mets had more fun naming these sort of standardized models.   They called this the "Montreal Express" 

 

Which brings me to NJ Model low... I don't think that is formal in any sort of AMS guide, however, AFD's used to speak of this ...oh 20 years ago when I was in college.  And it made a good deal of sense then, as it does now.  It's basically the only way to get a better organized cyclogen in the more proper sense when you have screamingly too fast flow everywhere, so much so that ...blah blah blah not going to explain it again.  You either can catch that fly ball, or sit on the bench ... 

 

Anyway, you have a flat-like open wave with certain mechanical report moving through the rough lat/lon box of the OV ... and it may only have an amorphous closed isobar ...or two or none.  But a very subtle lead S/W ridge ...if perhaps only a tendency for one to be there (think stowed momentum) ripples out ahead and when that "tendency/subtlety" kisses the natural tendency for SW flow at mid levels out just east of the coast, there's a bit of backward translation of force and the following immediate S/W crashes like a wave rearing..  

I'm in a metaphoric mood.  Bite me!.   So then suddenly the deeper layer gets its necessary veering in the front side, and backing in the backside, the 850 and 700 and so on close off under a sharpening 500mb structure that features geometric and velocity difluence and away it goes... Boom!  sometimes more or less, sure.  

 

An excellent example of this was November 1987..  There was a S/W that was so flat it almost had no curvature, but the v-max was some 40+ as she sliced here way overhead N IN/OH.  Cleveland soon reported thunderstorms in sleet and snow, and the regional rad display on The Weather Channel had shredded bands of heavy activity amid whirling winds .  Winter storm watches went up for much of the region and boy was that warranted.  You talk about a first snow of the season with panache!  It was 53 F for a high the previous afternoon, yet I awoke at 3:30am to the sound of thunder, thinking the WSW must have been a bust.  Peered out the window anyway and was stunned to see the street lamp down the way ... irregularly being dimmed to a feeble orb of light by horizontal winter.  

 

I got dressed...boots and gloves and hat and all and ventured out into it in awe.  Another flash and cacophonic boom permeated, temporarily muting the sound of winds whipped snow particles shattering about my upper torso, head and neck.  I stood there under that street lamp, faced turned alee of the wind at an angle ... lest my skin be strafed by the whirling shards, just stunned at the shock-change in the environment; going from still in the upper 40s and dead calm just 9 hour earlier to temperatures around 30 with near blizzard conditions.  

 

That storm actually performed well... but it was still an open wave, moving with a purpose. It was over with in some 4-6 hours. More like 6-9 hours over SE zones... I think some places there received a good 15" of shock and awe.  We ended up with 9" in Acton. Now THAT is how you run a first snow of the season!   Not the mangled 1/4" of slushy puke I had on my car top a couple mornings ago.

 

Although ... there were some gossamer snow patches under foot up at Barre Falls during disk golf yesterday ... so that was neat to see.   

 

Where the f was I going with all this ..Oh yeah, the Euro has indeed been flirting with such a notion over the past couple /few cycles... for the D6'ish window of time.  Like I said, the NJ Model low comes in varieties and intensities, and you can say "I think we'd notice a bomb off the NJ Coast" ... First of all, I never said there was a bomb there... You could possible infer that, sure... But what I said was that there was a weak low in the OV the bombed through the Gulf of Maine... That fits.  To say the obvious ... that much being present on the model for a D6 means you should monitor it.   

 

Frankly the 00z run still has that by the way... It may not mean much, but the f still there. 

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