earthlight Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 On 11/21/2014 at 5:02 PM, IsentropicLift said: GEFS mean is well offshore I'm guessing you didn't compare them to the earlier ensembles, because they are noticeably amplified and more consolidated. There are also a few members showing low pressures stronger and closer to the coast based on the spagh. plots. These are important things to look at instead of just the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 On 11/21/2014 at 5:06 PM, earthlight said: I'm guessing you didn't compare them to the earlier ensembles, because they are noticeably amplified and more consolidated. There are also a few members showing low pressures stronger and closer to the coast based on the spagh. plots. These are important things to look at instead of just the mean spag.png No, I didn't look at the indivduals yet. That's not a bad look at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I can see where some would be confused in here.......yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Ride the parafin GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Spectacular torch Monday. Many 65-70 readings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Saturday night / Sunday could be interesting with the warm air advection pattern with a low pressure track so far west looks like a cooler maritime Canadian type high pressure system could try to nudge down over New England with freezing drizzle or light mix especially north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Awesome write-up, John. Agreed. Interludes of warmth do not constitute a regime shift, especially when the background is still clad in cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 On 11/21/2014 at 5:10 PM, dryslot said: Ride the parafin GFS GFS para with some drug paraphernalia, most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Can easily envision a low 980's mb tucked up on the Jersey shore, hair slicked back and flipping sne the birdy, were that to actually phase fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 On 11/21/2014 at 5:37 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can easily envision a low 980's mb tucked up on the Jersey shore, hair slicked back and flipping sne the birdy, were that to actually phase fully. Hopefully you guys along the coastal plain can get in on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Full winter day today, wind chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 my god, let's leave the model analysis to the mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 On 11/21/2014 at 1:14 PM, CoastalWx said: The MJO will slowly move through the IO and then Indonesia and WPAC over the next 2 weeks. You can see this through the 200mb wind anomalies and also via what they call velocity potential anomalies. That helps give rise to ridging in the Aleutians as well. That should slowly move east and help pump up heights in the EPAC towards mid December. At least in theory. Yup full agreement with you Scott. Despite the op model chaos of late and the trends to more major cold in the 6-10 day (a period that was originally modeled much warmer once upon a time in the 11-15 day), this current 11-15 day/early Dec warm up has legs with the MJO/tropical forcing. We've discussed it in prior days and it actually appears to be making progress now on both ensembles lately (instead of staying in days 13-15 and/or trending colder as it pushes into 6-10 day)...If anything the colder risk for that first week of Dec is probably in the West versus what the ensembles have today, but I'm fairly confident we see the warmth for that period in the East hold through the weekend...Beyond that I'm fully on board for that NOT lasting and more cold right around the corner for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 On 11/21/2014 at 5:46 PM, Ginxy said: Full winter day today, wind chilly yep, I broke out the gloves and neck warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 On 11/21/2014 at 5:49 PM, SouthCoastMA said: my god, let's leave the model analysis to the mets ?? its what we do and have done for the last 15 years around here, remember these boards are not strictly Met boards.Its also a good way to learn from your mistakes and gain knowledge that you interpreted something wrong. Suppression of expression is never the goal of a DISCUSSION board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 On 11/21/2014 at 5:43 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Hopefully you guys along the coastal plain can get in on this one Doesn't matter to me, its November. Hopefully everyone speaks calendar and can understand that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 On 11/21/2014 at 5:57 PM, Ginxy said: ?? its what we do and have done for the last 15 years around here, remember these boards are not strictly Met boards.Its also a good way to learn from your mistakes and gain knowledge that you interpreted something wrong. Suppression of expression is never the goal of a DISCUSSION board Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 On 11/21/2014 at 5:49 PM, SouthCoastMA said: my god, let's leave the model analysis to the mets I'm on the West side of the 0c 850 line. That's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 4 day totals up in our neck of the woods. Not quite to Buffalo's extreme levels, but still impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 On 11/21/2014 at 6:12 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm on the West side of the 0c 850 line. That's snow. The ground is too warm for it to stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Euro can't quite get the phase done but boy it's close to some big Wednesday trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Interesting...modeling starting to lean toward some Mischief for Next Wednesday. Lets see if this look holds or disappears over the next couple days?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 On 11/21/2014 at 6:22 PM, CT Rain said: Euro can't quite get the phase done but boy it's close to some big Wednesday trouble. Same thing as 00z ... .so close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Another glorified scraper...but it's interesting at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 On 11/21/2014 at 6:30 PM, WinterWolf said: Hold your horses Kev, modeling sure is going that way, but it's not completely there yet. And it could flip right back to nothing later today. Plenty of time to sound the alarm if this becomes more certain. His horses don't hold back...full steam ahead around the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 On 11/21/2014 at 6:30 PM, WinterWolf said: Hold your horses Kev, modeling sure is going that way, but it's not completely there yet. And it could flip right back to nothing later today. Plenty of time to sound the alarm if this becomes more certain.Just like 00z it's another 2-4 type snow for interior and rain to snow on coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It's definitely enough to make me and probably anyone else that's forecasting either to the public or to some industry involved in travel a little anxious, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 On 11/21/2014 at 5:43 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Hopefully you guys along the coastal plain can get in on this one I hope they can, too. More importantly, I hope that GC can because that's where some of us live. Right now, I'm reading it a whiff. Nice day out there today. 27.2/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 On 11/21/2014 at 6:26 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Start warning your friends and family now. We've got outselves a snowstorm to track for travel day False ... Folks, keeping it real: no we don't. We have a suspicious interval of time that could evolve into something more ... but for the time being, a whiff. I liked the amplitude increase in the 12z GFS, combined with its parallel run... The differences are really the handling/timing of the southern S/W as it comes around the base of the trough. The heights are uber compressed there -- but the S/W is potent, and may have enough to offset the anomalously fast flow, necessary to organize a baroclinic leaf and so forth. It seems phasing would be less likely, however, given to the speed of the flow overall. The N stream needs time to subsume the southern impulse, but if the S impulse is moving along at ludicrous speed it sort o whips out and takes the dynamics along with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Euro - lol. wtf is it doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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