NorEastermass128 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 We'll see....I'm actually torn between two camps...70-80" and 45-55".45-55". But even to get there we will need at least one 6"+ storm at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 It's important to note this isn't '11-'12 so we know it's not like we are staring down the barrel of a gun. This is why I would be hesitant to go real low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I'd take 45-55" at BOS happily that's climo to a touch above and I think we'd all be happy with that after how this winter has started. Hell even 30" wouldn't be awful considering that's what my climo was up to this winter wouldn't be any different really. Get below 30" and it's ugly... I'd say my gun to head number at BOS is ~40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 45-55". But even to get there we will need at least one 6"+ storm at some point. You need to keep in mind that even subtle changes in the hemispheric pattern can produce what would be perceived as drastic changes in sensible weather, and once an abrupt change of this nature occurs, snowfall can add up quickly....ie a shift from what can go wrong will, to finding ways to snow. Obviously to see truly large events, we would need a drastic atmospheric shift, i.e. the complete change of the n atl, but say that ridge of the west coast were to shift eastward a bit....December 2007 and 2008 each featured stretches in which our area accumulated nearly 30" of snow in one week's time. That is without the benefit of a good Atlantic. We get a favorable n Atl between now and mid March, and forget it. People love to bandy about somber statistics illustrating how daunting a task it seems to continue a streak such as two consecutive well above avg snowfall seasons at KBOS, well...what are the odds that our region collectively whiffs on two, consecutive robust SAI seasons? 2010 and now 2015? Not so sure.... Yea, I know.....2010 worked out, we just got very unlucky...sure, but be that as it may, I can only count what I shoveled. They don't hand out trophies for having the best run differential throughout the regular season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 You need to keep in mind that even subtle changes in the hemispheric pattern can produce what would be perceived as drastic changes in sensible weather, and once an abrupt change of this nature occurs, snowfall can add up quickly....ie a shift from what can go wrong will, to finding ways to snow. Obviously to see truly large events, we would need a drastic atmospheric shift, i.e. the complete change of the n atl, but say that ridge of the west coast were to shift eastward a bit....December 2007 and 2008 each featured stretches in which our area accumulated nearly 30" of snow in one week's time. That is without the benefit of a good Atlantic. We get a favorable n Atl between now and mid March, and forget it. People love to bandy about somber statistics illustrating how daunting a task it seems to continue a streak such as two consecutive well above avg snowfall seasons at KBOS, well...what are the odds that our region collectively whiffs on two, consecutive robust SAI seasons? 2010 and now 2015? Not so sure.... Yea, I know.....2010 worked out, we just got very unlucky...sure, but be that as it may, I can only count what I shoveled. They don't hand out trophies for having the best run differential throughout the regular season. Zero changes. I missed verifying my 40-50" January call by .5" here. With a current depth of 29", and a seasonal total of 64.5", i'm currently 1.5" over my seasonal mean, and 25.5" away from breaking my forecasted seasonal mean. 45.5" in just under one week, and 52" in 9 days. My Feb total sits @ 16". I'm forecasting 10-20" more throughout the month of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 "The winter, like many winter weather enthusiasts here in southern New England, climaxes in January, as we witness persistent cold, at least one KU, perhaps two, in a January rivaling that of 2011. I suspect that a major event will be of the late blooming variety, and pummel eastern MA and ME especially hard" I feel as though I captured the overall nature of the blizzard fairly well. I have rushed the progression of the season by about 2-3 weeks. Always room for improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 We are in sync My first 3 of 8 Week ending 1/24/15 +1.-1 Normal climo colder at end of week, possible cutter mid week Week ending 1/31/15 -1,-2 Colder ,coastal storm interior heavier snow cold after end of week storm Week ending 02/07 -3,-5 Cold Possible strong Miller B region wide snowstorm to start, deep cold then end of week back to climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 We are in sync My first 3 of 8 Week ending 1/24/15 +1.-1 Normal climo colder at end of week, possible cutter mid week Week ending 1/31/15 -1,-2 Colder ,coastal storm interior heavier snow cold after end of week storm Week ending 02/07 -3,-5 Cold Possible strong Miller B region wide snowstorm to start, deep cold then end of week back to climo Great minds, Stevie...great minds. I'm actually THIS close to upping my outlook....but Ive only had two winters hit the century mark. Man, just think......2011 was reaching this depth at this exact juncture of the season, but that season, little did we know, was being truncated. This one is just hitting its stride. Frightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Greatest comeback since...last night's game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Greatest comeback since...last night's game? 2004. Talk about an analog....2005 Weak Nino, slow start...then third weak of Jan BOOM. Blizzard, off to the races...then SB victory. Just a little bit of history repeating..... I may make a run at that season's lofty 107.5" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 2004. Talk about an analog....2005 Weak Nino, slow start...then third weak of Jan BOOM. Blizzard, off to the races...then SB victory. Just a little bit of history repeating..... I may make a run at that season's lofty 107.5" total. You sound like Me! Always looking for historical correlations and everything. Mine was 122". Don't know how I can beat that. But it's Possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Greatest comeback since...last night's game? Oh Ya!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 this year feels like 2005 shifted about 25 miles further north. Does anyone else agree? May be the product of not having a real sustained -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Worst to first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 Worst to first? Yes. Bridging one thread to the other: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46015-congratulations-on-1-boston/page-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Yes. Who would have known. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 20, 2015 Author Share Posted March 20, 2015 One thing that I forgot to explicitly mention is that the TUG will have an EPIC season. Move over 2007. I suspect Albany will catch the eastern vestiges of that, which explains why they do well in these analogs. Can anyone verify this off of the top of their grape?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Can anyone verify this off of the top of their grape?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Pretty meh for the tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Can anyone verify this off of the top of their grape?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Pretty meh for the tug. http://www.weather.gov/buf/wintersummary1415 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/nws_buffalo_snowspotter_network.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Pretty meh for the tug. yea Redfield had 353 last year but according to the snowmobilers club this year because of zero thaws has been epic ride season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 http://www.weather.gov/buf/wintersummary1415 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/nws_buffalo_snowspotter_network.htm Looks like Hooker right in the center of the belt is close to average. Perhaps a bit above. They avg around 250 for the season. Given they average snow in April too, their 242 looks slightly above average. They actually had a lot more last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Lake Ontario is frozen over, correct? If so, I would imagine that has a lot to do with the "lower" totals in the Tug area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Lake Ontario is frozen over, correct? If so, I would imagine that has a lot to do with the "lower" totals in the Tug area.Ontario had more ice on it last year actually. It rarely fully freezes like Lake Erie. It's actually often a good thing for snow because the air masses that cause it to freeze produce epic LES a lot of the time. Just not really this winter as the trajectory hasn't always been great. Winters like the late 70s that caused them to freeze produced like 450" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 20, 2015 Author Share Posted March 20, 2015 Ontario had more ice on it last year actually. It rarely fully freezes like Lake Erie. It's actually often a good thing for snow because the air masses that cause it to freeze produce epic LES a lot of the time. Just not really this winter as the trajectory hasn't always been great. Winters like the late 70s that caused them to freeze produced like 450" totals. Yea, many of the cold shots came more from the north. Interesting. Thanks, guys....not terrible, but not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Last year with the PV closer to Hudson Bay probably helped keeping the flow westerly and dumping on the Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 13, 2015 Author Share Posted April 13, 2015 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macriver Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Really great write-up, Ray. And tremendous job on your predictions! I really enjoyed looking at the snowfall table. At age 50, not sure I'll live long enough to see Beantown break that record (but I hope to!). Also, the significant difference in totals between Hartford and Tolland really jumped out at me considering they're not that far apart (although Tolland obviously has higher elevation). Anyway, great job once again. You put a ton of work and passion into that project. P.S. I think you might have meant 2015-2016 for your sneak preview - unless next winter looks so ugly you are skipping over it?, Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 16, 2015 Author Share Posted April 16, 2015 Thanks a lot, macriver. Very good season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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