40/70 Benchmark's Winter Outlook 2014-15

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Tremendous write up, Ray. Really enjoyed reading your thoughts, and I can only hope this winter bows to the authority of your outlook!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Thanks, guys.

[CoastalWx]

Finally finished it..LOL  Good job man.

[tamarack]

Sounds like your 1978 experience was strikingly similar to my 2010 season.

 

My 1978 was still worlds ahead of my 2010 - four easct coast KUs, the first three were clean misses, the 4th brought th worst 10" snowstorm I ever hope to see (the only one with ratio 4:1), ending with a day of 34F rain while NY enjoyed its 21" snowicane.  All courtesy of The Retro-Bomb That Ate Winter TM.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Thank you for writing this. I really want to print this out ad refer to it multiple time. Seriously

Great effort

[40/70 Benchmark]

Thank you for writing this. I really want to print this out ad refer to it multiple time. Seriously

Great effort

Thanks, Hunchie

No prob. Go for it.

[RedSky]

Certainly an enlightening read

[Met1985]

Great read man.

[Damage In Tolland]

Happy 34th bday to KGAY!! Enjoy it. May the snow be up to the britches on your snow pants 

[Ginx snewx]

Happy birthday Raymond may this be the winter of your wildest dreams.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Thanks, guys.

[40/70 Benchmark]

.5" in thus far in December, so we are likely finishing under 5" on the month.

I thought that I'd see about ~15" throughout December, but be that as it may, I'm not changing anything as of yet.

 

My call for January is 40-50".

[Tropopause_Fold]

.5" in thus far in December, so we are likely finishing under 5" on the month.

I thought that I'd see about ~15" throughout December, but be that as it may, I'm not changing anything as of yet.

 

My call for January is 40-50".

  balls out. 

[Damage In Tolland]

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I must of missed this read last month. Good stuff man, impressive for a weenie.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

.5" in thus far in December, so we are likely finishing under 5" on the month.

I thought that I'd see about ~15" throughout December, but be that as it may, I'm not changing anything as of yet.

My call for January is 40-50".

I agree. We make up alot of ground in Jan. But I think Feb will be the more impressive month snowfall wise, for reasons I can't explain lol....just a hunch.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  balls out. 

The statistical analysis is part of a forecast, but as Will said, it needs to be considered within the proper context.

What has changed, other than the fact that mother nature has has chosen to give is blue balls this month??

The answer is nothing.

She's still our girl....but she's chosen to tease us a bit before ultimately disrobing.

What I glean from this is an increased measure of confidence that the normal segment of society that does not look forward to winter weather, will pay the piper, so to speak, throughout January.

Zero regarding the underlying premise going into this outlook has changed. What I fell victim to was rushing the pattern change, which is a mere venial solecism that many forecasters, and guidance alike, commits.

There is nothing to counter that feedback between the land, sea and air that was set in motion back in October.

It's simply manifesting itself about 10 days later in time than I had originally anticipated, thus the resultant wintery period should now fit nicely into the man made temporal spacing that we refer to as the month of January, thus Decembers's net winter bounty will be more meager.

 

Go hard, go big.

[weathafella]

http://youtu.be/kD3BIPOls2Y

[40/70 Benchmark]

As an addendum, at the time of this writing, my two main analogs ('76-'77, '77-'78) were vying for proxy; however the implications of this delay, and now the emergence of a Great Lakes triple phaser as a prominent catalyst, are that '77-'78 has emerged as the clear victor....sorry, Ginxy lol.

Perhaps the CT and W NE contingent may take some measure of solace in the fact '76-'77 losing ground to '77-'78 as an analog may act to attenuate some angst regarding the potential for a season laden with real late-bloomers, such as the former season, but who knows. I'd still ultimately rather be east this season, contrary to the turn of events thus far.

 

I would also like to caution against expecting an event rivaling that of Feb 1978 or 2013, but the odds of such an occurrence are surely elevated this season.

[CoastalWx]

I guess my only concern is that lack of a stagnant -NAO. At least right now. Maybe that changes later in January, but I kind of wish we would see higher heights fester there.

[moneypitmike]

Enjoy.

 

                                                                        Winter Outlook 2014-’15 

Southern New England Centric

40/70 Benchmark

11/14/14

 

How to Interpret a Seasonal Outlook

      It is now on the eve of the first measurable snow of the 2014-’15 season that would like to preface my narrative regarding what the impending winter may, or may not have in store for us with one caveat: I’m sure you have all witnessed the media orgy surrounding what promises to be the most dire, extreme, coldest, snowiest, orgasmic winter that we have ever experienced. These claims are not entirely unfounded; however any level of precision, especially pertaining to snowfall (subject to an obscene level of variance), with regard to a seasonal outlook should be taken with a grain of salt the size of the polar vortex that enveloped the mid west last winter. Yes, I said it. POLAR VORTEX. I’m uncertain as to why the media has developed such a POLAR VORTEX fetish, because it is not some sadistic, abominal snowman that eats people and throws trees through living room windows. Its a pool of lower atmospheric heights that is often accompanied by anomalously cold air. Relatively tame when delivered within the proper context. Anyway, now that we have that out of the way….  the atmosphere is nothing but a sea of chaos that mankind is only now beginning to try to, kind of, sort of retain some semblance of an inkling as to how it operates. Please wrap your mind around that fact before ogling any winter outlook. We’ve all witnessed forecasts made four hours in advance rendered a hot, steaming pile of fail, so it would behoove any intrepid soul with the temerity to offer up a forecast spanning four months in advance to urge folks to employ it more as a probabilistic tool, as opposed to some hapless soul focusing on any specific numbers given. In other words, am I more or less likely to freeze my a$$ off and shovel more than I usually do? I would advise against focusing on a given snowfall range and temperature anomaly. That is often an exercise in futility days out, never mind months out. But yes, I will provide anticipated seasonal snowfall ranges because I’m sick like that, and can not help myself. Anyway, without further ado, lets talk winter.

 

Santa’s Acute Seasonal Affective Disorder

      One thing that I can predict with 100 percent certitude each and every winter is that it will be damn cold near the north pole. There is a period of time centered on the winter solstice during which that area is mired in 24 hours of uninterrupted darkness; what we can glean from that, aside from the fact that we may one day find Santa hanging from a noose along side a work bench littered with unassembled toys, is that in the absence of any sunlight whatsoever, it will indeed be bitterly cold. We know that the north pole will be frigid, dark, and that this stygian freezer may well necessitate a suicide watch for Santa; however what we do not know is whether or not there will be an impetus to drive this cold air southward into the mid latitudes, where we all hastily unwrap the fruits of Santa’s labor on Christmas morning, provided the well of Zoloft proves deep enough. In order to even begin to speculate on whether or not this cold will frequently be able to ooze southward throughout the upcoming winter, it is important to understand what our atmosphere is comprised of.

 

Under Pressure

     The Earth’s atmosphere is made up of air; startling revelation, I know. But this sea of air in which we live is very pliable, much like a garden hose, and for every perturbation there is a down stream reaction. Like everything else in the universe, the atmosphere is all about maintaining balance. These processes take place at different levels of the atmosphere, as well, from the lower troposphere in which most of our weather takes place, right up through the stratosphere, which represents the very highest level before reaching outer space. As alluded to earlier, It is difficult enough to determine exactly how all of these processes  within this layered sea of utter chaos will interact with each other and manifest themselves in the form of weather at four days lead time, never mind four months, but alas, the very essence of life is experiencing the exhilaration of rising to the occasion to meet a challenge, so we try. Anyway, as I’m sure even those with the most dilettante of interests in meteorology know, areas of high pressure, associated with fair weather, and areas of low pressure oft linked with the fun stuff, play a large role in determining our quotidian weather; however it is the intraseasonal relationships of these areas of higher and lower pressure that play a grander, albeit more recondite role in influencing the weather. Thankfully and mercifully, scientists, in their infinite wisdom realizing that the normal 99.9999999% of the population’s eye’s glaze over with great rapidity when discussing such matters,  formulated metrics, or indices, used to quantify these intraseasonal configurations of lower and higher pressure in certain areas. Two such indices, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are of particular interest to us here in the mid latitudes because they are responsible for displacing that frigid, arctic air southward from the poles. It is for this reason that the AO and NAO are both referred to as the “polar indices”.

 

Polar Indices

     The Arctic Oscillation (AO), simply put, is the relationship between sea level pressures in the polar region, and the mid latitudes (37-45* N). The positive phase of the AO is the default state of the atmosphere, meaning all else being equal with no significant disruptions to, or perturbations within the mass fields, the atmosphere has a proclivity to be in this state. The arctic air, as the name derived from its point of origin implies, is meant to remain locked there. This positive phase of the AO is characterized by lower pressures over the pole (polar vortex) and higher pressures here in the mid latitudes. The lower pressures present near the pole act to keep the strong belt of winds known as the jet stream very strong and constricted, thus confining the arctic air to its polar point of origin. Conversely, as you may imagine, the negative phase of the AO features lower pressures here in the mid latitudes, and higher pressures near the pole, thus rendering the jet weaker and more diffuse, allowing the cold arctic air to ooze southward. In this state the lower pressures near the pole, or the infamous “polar vortex”, is weaker and more amorphous, thus more prone to being dislodged from the pole and sinking southward. The AO encompasses a rather large domain, and within it we also find the region used to derive another important metric index referred to as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

     The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is an index calculated on a daily basis, like the AO, and is used to measure the difference in atmospheric pressure between a permanent area of low pressure over Iceland, and a permanent area of higher pressure over the Azore Islands. A +NAO is denoted by a greater difference in pressure between the two stations. This phase often features ridge of lower heights in the vicinity of Greenland and northeast Canada, and higher heights over the northeastern US, which usually lends itself to mild weather and inland storms tracks. The negative phase of the NAO features less of a disparity between the pressures at Iceland and the Azores, and has higher pressure in the vicinity of Greenland. It also has lower pressures over the northeast US, allowing colder air to seep southward. These areas of greater pressures present at the higher latitudes during negative phases of the polar indices are not only crucial for allowing delivery of colder air to the mid latitudes, but they also act as resistance to storms cutting inland across the US, and changing snow over to rain along the major metropolitan areas of the east coast. Commonly referred to as “blocking” in most meteorological circles, they also aid in slowing the progress of storm systems, so it is no wonder why the vast majority of major east coast snowfalls are experienced when the aforementioned indices are in their negative states, respectively. Surfeit to say, the success of any winter outlook in the eastern US is fairly heavily dependent upon the ability to accurately predict the prevalent phases of these two polar indices during the ensuing winter season, which until the past few years has been a complete and utter exercise in futility; however new, groundbreaking research conducted by research meteorologist Judah Cohen has truly revolutionized the way we go about making these crucial prognostications . 

 

Predicting the Polar indices for Winter 2014-’15

      The weather around the globe throughout the month of October seems to be of particular importance when it comes to forecasting crucial indicators regarding the coming winter season. As mentioned earlier in this writing, for every perturbation within the large scale mass of the atmosphere, there is a downstream reaction in order to maintain balance; however there exists a lag for some of these more non stochastic occurrences, mainly ones pertaining to the land, sea, and atmosphere feedback, to manifest themselves into the atmosphere.  The Snow Cover Extent (SCE) is an index used to quantify the amount of snow cover present across the continent of Eurasia during the month of October. The logic behind this metric is that the cold snow pack creates an area of high pressure over Eurasia as it expands, which then rises upstream and poleward, thus disturbing the polar vortex by warming the stratosphere and replacing the area of low pressure with higher pressures. As articulated in the explanation of the Arctic Oscillation, the negative phase of the AO is characterized by higher pressures over the pole, which is precisely what is favored to take place when we observe a high SCE for the month of October. I’m sure by now that anyone reading this is just salivating, overwhelmed with curiosity as to whether or not they shovel long-time this season, and the survey says that you will; however in the same breath that I bestow upon you the knowledge that this past October featured the second highest SCE since 1968, I must also qualify this revelation with the fact that the correlation between the SCE and the ensuing winter’s AO is rather tepid. Keep your pants on snow hounds. Don’t spike the football just yet. So what know? Cohen to the rescue.

     Over the course of the last few years meteorologist Judah Cohen has further buttressed our arsenal of predictive metrics in the battle against seasonal unpredictability with the addition of yet another index. The Snow Advance Index (SAI), boasting a much more robust correlation to the impending winter’s averaged AO state than its SCE coursin, measures the rate at which the snow shield expands below 60 degrees of latitude over the continent of Eurasia. What can be inferred from this is that the physical processes which take place as a result of the snow cover and subsequently propagate upstream, are not as important as the simple fact that the same hemispheric regime that favors a rapid build up of Eurasian snow cover during the month of October portend a predominately negative phase of the AO during the following winter. Both of the snow cover metrics are in agreement that 2014 is second to only October of 1976  since the inception of each, which is 1968 for the SCE, and 1973 for the SAI. What this tells us is that as far as Eurasian snow cover is concerned, the coming winter has a greater opportunity than any over the last forty plus seasons, with the exception of 1976, which was one of the colder winters on record for the US, to feature a negative AO. This represents a signal for me to disregard any weak al Nino analogs not featuring a classic negative polar configuration. That being said, it is at this point that I’d urge all of the winter weather “weenies” such as myself, who have pitched pants tents at the disclosure of this information, to simmer down, as this is only one factor in solving one part of one of the most complex equations known to man. As touched upon earlier, October is, “kind of a big deal”, so it would be prudent for me to also introduce to you the October Pattern Index (OPI).

      The October Pattern Index (OPI) is a essentially a “synthesis” of the October hemispheric pattern at the 500mb level, or mid levels, of the atmosphere. This index is very highly correlated to the ultimate AO reading of the following winter, and as was the case with the SCE and SAI, the OPI registered it’s second most suggestive reading of a -AO winter on record. The only season featuring a lower index was October 2009, which was the snowiest winter on record for much of the mid atlantic states and featured one of the lowest aggregate winter AO readings ever recorded. Since the AO is the larger of the two domains, and covers much of the same area incorporated into the NAO, much of the focus has remained on the AO with regard to the polar indices because the vast majority of the time, the AO and NAO will be in sync since they are indeed correlated; however that is not always the case, thus there does exist separate means by which to forecast the state of the NAO for a given winter. One such method examines the configuration of the Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies throughout the summer and into the fall. When the stratification of sea surface temperature anomalies features cold water off of the coast of Greenland, warm water near the coast of New Foundland, and yet another layer of warmer than normal waters lower down in the mid latitudes, then the lagged feed back into the atmosphere tends to favor a +NAO as the predominate phase for the ensuing winter. Winters often featuring a negative phase of the NAO and its associated blocking over the pole and higher latitudes tend to be preceded by the opposite configuration. A stripe of warm anomalies off of greenland, a pool of anomalously cool water just to the south and southeast of New Foundland, and a swath of again warmer waters in the mid latitudes, abeam of roughly North Carolina. This configuration is often referred to as a “tripole” within the meteorological community. If you have wagered to guess that this is the configuration that we have observed as summer has aged and given way to autumn 2014, you would be correct. One need not possess the credentials of judah Cohen to make that deduction. As far as the indicators for the polar indices are concerned this autumn, we are batting .1000, 4/4, from the perspective of a winter weather afficianado such as your’s truly; however there is one more index, believe it or not, that must be factored in order to make it unanimous, and this provides a splendid segue into consideration of the  mighty Pacific.

 

Pacific Influences

     Weather systems here in the mid latitudes of the northern hemisphere move from west to east, as this is the prevailing direction in which the jet stream flows, thus the Pacific ocean is west i.e. upstream, of the contiguous lower 48 states . Couple this with the fact that the Pacific is more than twice the size of the Atlantic, and it is no mystery as to why the Pacific ultimately holds proxy over the Atlantic with regard to determining our weather patterns, despite the fact the we are geographically much closer to the Atlantic here in the northeastern section of the US. There exists an intricate, as mentioned, a dynamic and lagged system of feedback between the ocean, ground and air, as evidenced by the configuration of sea temperature anomalies in the Atlantic being correlated to certain weather patterns a few months later, and likewise with regard to Eurasian snow cover during the month of October influencing the following winter’s AO state. These same principles apply to the Pacific, and all other large bodies of water for that matter. Whether the sea drives the atmosphere, or vice versa is a “which came first, the chicken or the egg” debate prevalent among scientific circles that quite frankly transcends the scope of this writing, but all one needs to know for the purpose of seasonal forecasting is that they are indeed correlated. With this information in mind, let us know turn our attention to the main Pacific Indices.

     The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a metric tabulated on a monthly basis to assess  sea surface temperature anomalies present in the Pacific ocean. As implied by its name, it is prone to decadal cycles of 15-30 year periods in which one state is favored over the other. The negative phase features anomalously cool waters over the eastern Pacific, off the west coast of the US, and warmer waters than average over the western Pacific. What we have observed this summer and autumn is the opposite configuration. Cooler than normal waters over the eastern Pacific, and warmer than normal waters near the west coast of the US, indicative of a +PDO. What this tends to do is favor more ridging, or higher atmospheric heights and warmer than normal temperatures over the western US, and correspondingly lower atmospheric heights and thus cooler anomalies where we live, here in the eastern US. This configuration of the PDO tends to favor the positive phase of the Pacific-North American Teleconnection Pattern (PNA).

     As opposed to the PDO, the Pacific-North American teleconnection Pattern (PNA) is more volatile and prone to frequent fluctuation, thus rendering it a more stochastic index. This essentially means its less difficult to predict at extended leads than the PDO because it isn’t as stable, thus for the purpose of long range forecasting one is better served to expend more energy on determining the favored state of the PDO in the coming months. As is the case with the polar indices, the aggregate seasonal phase of these two respective metrics will usually not be in conflict with one another. The positive phase of the PNA, like the +PDO, often features warmer than normal temperatures over the western US, lower than normal temperatures over the eastern and southeastern US. It is not as crucial an index here in the northeastern US, but can sometimes help to slow the flow down enough to allow for larger winter storms in the absence of higher latitude blocking. Now that everyone has been lulled into an index induced coma, we can begin to assess what determines the favored seasonal state of the PDO and PNA, as well as a great deal of other factors around the globe.

  El Nino Southern Oscillation is Crucial

     El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) refers to a band of sea surface temperature anomalies that are either warm, or cold across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The term “southern oscillation” refers to the relationship of sea surface pressures between Darwin, Austrailia and the island of Tahiti that modulates this stripe of sea surface temperatures. When the southern oscillation is in its positive phase, there is above normal pressure over Tahiti, below normal pressure over Darwin and the disparity between the pressure at the respective stations is larger. This lends itself to a cooler than normal strip of Pacific waters to the west of South America, called “La Nina”, which is the feminine version of the term “El Nino”, meaning “baby of Christ” in Spanish, referring to its tendency to really begin to manifest itself into the global weather regime around Christmas time.  In contrast to La Nina, el Nino is characterized by below normal sea level pressure over Tahiti, above normal sea level pressure over Darwin and a smaller pressure difference between the two stations, which ultimately leads to an above average strip of waters off of the coast of northern South America. The ENSO region is broken up into four main zones; region 1.2 is the most malleable and is located in the shallower waters just off of the coast of Peru, region 3 is just to the west, region 3.4 is the main, central zone, which is employed as the main indicator for the ENSO, and finally region 4 is on the western flank. The magnitude of the ENSO events, la Nina and el Nino, are measured by the degrees celsius to which they deviate from the normal temperature of the sea. Neutral is denoted by a 0 to .5 degrees Celsius anomaly, weak ENSO events deviate anywhere from .5 to 1.0 degree celcius from normal, moderate range anywhere from 1.0 to 1.5 degrees celcius, and finally anything greater than 1.5 degrees cooler or warmer than normal represents a strong ENSO event. The cooler waters present during episodes of La Nina tend to be supportive of a -PDO, or cooler waters along the west coast of the US, and the warmer waters associated with el Nino more closely linked with the +PDO phase. Obviously, the greater the magnitude of the sea surface temperature anomalies in that crucial swath, the greater the likelihood that these anomalies will manifest themselves into the atmosphere by forcing more amplified versions of the patterns to which they are correlated. This year, we are currently seeing an average anomaly of about .8 degrees Celsius above the mean sea surface temperature in that area, and models indicate that the average anomaly should remain within the “weak” classification. What this tells me is that a +PDO should be the the prevailing phase observed in the Pacific ocean this winter, though perhaps not overwhelmingly so, odds favor it nonetheless. This would also imply a +PNA more often than not over North America this season, though as mentioned, this index is relatively unstable and prone to frequent fluctuations. We can look to current sea surface temperatures to either confirm, or dispute this prognostication, especially when the signal is relatively modest, as it is this year given that el Nino is weak. Sure enough, waters off of the west coast are indeed warmer than average, thus it is safe to assume that above normal heights should be favored over the western US, and below normal heights over the eastern US,  or a +PDO/PNA, which reinforces the signal for a cold eastern US seen with regard to the polar indices.  ENSO certainly has a profound impact in the Pacific ocean, as described, but is in fact such such a pervasive atmospheric force that it can even directly affect the Atlantic Ocean when in its warm phase, such a it is this season.

Research has illustrated that in years such as this one, when ENSO is in it’s warm, el Nino phase, we gain one additional predictor of the following season’s NAO, in addition to the aforementioned “tripole" method. The averaged sea level pressure over the north Pacific ocean throughout the month of October acts as an augur for the following winter’s NAO state.When the the north Pacific’s sea level pressure averages above 1013mb for the month of October, a +NAO is favored; however if the reading is below 1013mb, such as this season’s 1012.36mb, a predominately negative phase of the NAO for the following winter is anticipated. This puts an exclamation mark on the anticipation for the polar indices to be predominately negative this season, as five out of five indicators favor this. Additionally, the vast majority of weak el Ninos in the past have featured negative phases of the NAO during the winter. One factor that maybe related to this, which is admittedly purely anecdotal and speculative on my part, is the position of the Aleutian low pressure area, a common feature of el Ninos, which is critical in dictating the nature of the winter season over the US.

East Pacific Oscillation; The Gate Keeper

     The polar indices are what permit access to Santa’s polar airmass; a negative AO/warm polar stratosphere can disturb the polar vortex enough to have the arctic air displaced closer to us here in the middle latitudes, but we still need a force to provide the impetus to bodily drive that arctic southward because as you may have heard, it needs to be cold in order to snow. In the absence of a force to drive that airmass southward, we run this risk of having the cold sit over Canada, or possibly even eradicated by the Pacific Jet because we are, after all, down stream from the expansive Pacific ocean. 

     The negative phase of the East Pacific Oscillation features higher pressures over Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska, which tends to not only block the mild flow of air emanating from the Pacific ocean, but the clockwise flow around this area of higher pressure gets routed up and over Alaska, down through northern Canada and into the US. This phenomenon known as “cross polar flow”, is what drives many of our classic cold patterns here in the US, even sometimes in the absence of favorable polar indices. The exact seasonal placement of semi permanent areas of high and low pressure over the north pacific ocean play a major role in dictating which types of air masses are permitted entry into the US, especially in el Nino seasons because they often feature a semi permanent area of low pressure in the north Pacific referred to as an “Aleutian low”, named for the archipelago emanating from the state of Alaska and extending to the southwest into the pacific. It is crucial to keep a close vigil on where this sets up throughout the month of October because if it is in the Gulf of Alaska, this will represent a +EPO, and the westerly and southwesterly counterclockwise flow around the area of low pressure will act as a mild Pacific jet; however if the area of low pressure sets up a little further to the west and southwest, near the Aleutian islands, then the southerly flow gets shunted up and into Alaska before diving back into the US. This is where the low sets up more often than not in weaker el Ninos, which may tele connect to a negative NAO, at least somewhat. This is the pattern that we have observed taking shape over the course of the past month, which usually portends a classic, cold, weak el Nino regime during the ensuing winter. In fact, the record for the lowest pressure observed in this area was recently shattered. The previous record was set in October of 1977. Note the reoccurrence of late 1970’s parallels. Many of the colder and weaker ENSO events also have the warmest anomalies located in the western most regions, 4 and 3.4, which may also play a role in the displacement of the Aleutian low a little further to the west, allowing for a colder regime for the US and more of a -EPO dominate season, though the placement of the anomalies seems more crucial in stronger, warm ENSO events. The warmest anomalies in the present el Nino, as of this writing, have been steadily traversing westward in accordance with most computer protections, building even more evidence against an anomalously warm winter east of the Mississippi river.

Conclusion

     The planet Earth is absolutely a living organism that, like everything else in the universe, requires balance. This is achieved via a complex, dynamic and lagged feedback between land, sea and air, which drives an elaborate system of pressure oscillations that maintain balance via the facilitation of shorter term, more stochastic downstream fluctuations. What this does is ensure that any perturbation within the flow is negated by a corresponding downstream reaction, akin to the shake of a garden hose. 

What we know heading into this winter is that because we recorded the 2nd highest SCE and SAI on record throughout Eurasia during the month of October, that this winter will more than likely feature a strongly negative AO, thus the weak el Nino seasons of the early 1950’s can be discounted. We can already see this manifesting itself via the currently warming polar stratosphere. This notion is reinforced by the fact that we have recored the second lowest OPI on record, and seen a steep plunge in the AO index during the month of October. What this means is that we are also likely to see a -NAO this winter, as dictated by the NPI, the tripole configuration of sea surface temperature anomalies observed in the Atlantic, and the mere fact that we are anticipated to see a weak el Nino. The arctic cold should be displaced from the pole, and in plentiful supply across Canada, and with el Nino poised to deliver a favorable Pacific, we should have a a driving force to bodily drive that cold air southward.  This is definitely the most emphatic “cold and snow” signal that I have ever witnessed in my lifetime. Every, single, solitary indicator is pointing in the same direction. Does this mean the most severe winter ever, and we’re all going to die? No, but it does lend rather high confidence to the notion that we should not see a mild winter….in fact, about as high as it has ever been since…wait for it, wait for it…..the late 1970’s. 1976-’77 is the only season in history with this impressive a signal. Disregarding the weak el Nino events of 1953, 1954 and 2005 , which featured unimpressive polar blocking for the most part,  is not difficult to ascertain where I’m going with this.

Favored Types of Cyclogenesis

     I am anticipating some late-blooming systems this winter, and coastal huggers during periods of relaxation, thus snowfall anomalies should be greatest in eastern New England with a secondary maxima to the west, into upstate NY and northern NE. I do not feel as though locales in between should dust off the banana hammocks, nor do I feel it would be prudent for them to prance out of there abodes clad in gauzy thongs, either; however there does indeed exist a precedent for weak el Ninos to really focus the winter’s fury north of the mid atlantic, often throughout the eastern third of New England. I believe this to be the case because in stronger + ENSO events, such as the ones featured in the immensely frustrating winter of 2009-’10 (Insert beast of a man in the shed flashbacks), 2002-’03 and 1986-‘87 winter seasons, the sub tropical jet was also very robust, owing to more Miller A type systems. These types of cyclones tend to hit the mid Atlantic the hardest because they need to cover more distance in order to reach us. This extra distance equates to more time for things to go “wrong”, from the sick, twisted perception of a snow mongerer. Miller A cyclones have their origin in the southern stream, or Gulf of Mexico, meaning that that increased distance and time between the system and New England introduces a couple of limiting factors that we should not have to deal with very often this year: 1) Increased likelihood for the track to go astray by either dry slotting the region and/or introducing precipitation type issues, or even slipping out to sea. Hey, Superstorm 1993. Damn, PD I.  2) In order to maximize snowfall, you want the system’s closest pass to the south southeast of the area to coincide with the mid level, 850, 700mb lows’ maximum rate of deepening. Should the system “peak” too far to the south, we are left with a “skunked” out, shredded disaster of a precipitation shield; what’s up, Boxing day 2010.

   What I expect to see this season is just enough of a sub tropical jet presence, especially given the +PDO working in concert with the weak-west warm ENSO event, to allow the northern stream to avail of that extra influx of moisture, yet remain the dominant stream. Most of the systems should be born of the northern stream, yet receive a quick prick of a banned substance, and proved to happy hour off of the New Jersey shore, otherwise known as the “New Jersey Model Low”. These Miller B systems often flirt rather provocatively with DC and Baltimore, getting the winter “wannabes” in those parts all hot and bothered, before delivering a moderate to high impact from Philly to New York City, and requiring the implementation of “Storm Mode” on Americanuswx from the Big Apple points northeast. Portions of northern New England, especially west, may be left smoking the ‘ole cirrus stogie, but alas, their time will come once the NAO relaxes.

If you are a weather weenie, well versed in New England winter time lore, this may resonate with you as something akin to the historic winters of 1976-’77 and 1977-’78. As it should. You’ve got a gift.

How Much for MBY; Analog Years

     As mentioned previously, I expect NewYork City and points southwestward, down the rest of the east coast into the mid atlantic to see above average snowfall, but not exceedingly so. It is here in New England that I expect the full wrath of this winter to be incurred, or enjoyed, dependent upon perspective. The further east one is, the more likely they are to observe greater snowfall anomalies relative to average, although there will be a secondary maxima west and north, as hinted at. 

The area should receive one or two minor snowfalls throughout the month of November before a reprieve in the pattern, and subsequent reload at some point toward the middle part of December. The final month of the year should be a prolific month snowfall wise, but not record breaking. I’m not only dreaming of a white Christmas, but perhaps an actual snowfall on the holiday itself. Hopefully Santa fends off the urge to plunge off of Rudolph in mid flight, and makes the trip south to enjoy it with us. It is possible that the storm will affect the region during the week leading up to the holiday, as opposed to during it. The winter, like many winter weather enthusiasts here in southern New England, climaxes in January, as we witness persistent cold, at least one KU, perhaps two, in a January rivaling that of 2011. I suspect that a major event will be of the late blooming variety, and pummel eastern MA and ME especially hard. A KU event near the end of the month will herald in a milder regime, lasting until around mid February, at which point old man winter makes us his valentine for one last winter hurrah. It is during this abatement of the mean pattern that I expect the ski resorts that had previously been neglected to have their appetite whetted with a cutter or two. The final stanza lasts until the the middle of March, and includes several moderate events, at which point we turn our attention to dodging pot holes and spring training.

    Temperature anomalies should range from anywhere between just under a degree Celsius throughout down east ME, to as much as 2+ degrees below normal in parts of the mid atlantic. 

Happy weenieing, folks.

 

Projected Seasonal Snowfall for Winter 2014-'15

Boston, MA 65-75"

New York, NY  35-45"

Philadelphia, PA 30-40"

Baltimore, MD 15-25"

Washington, DC 15-20"

Albany, NY 70-80"

Hartford, CT 65-75"

Providence, RI 65-75"

Worcester, MA 80-90"

Tolland, CT 70-80"

KGAY- 90-100"

Burlington, VT 80-90"

Portland, ME 85-95"

Concord, NH 75-85"

 

Thanks for the thorough write-up, Ray.  Relatively speaking, it looks like a great winter for some who usually don't have a lot of snow and a good one for those who typically do.  Let's keep the fingers crossed.

[weathafella]

I guess my only concern is that lack of a stagnant -NAO. At least right now. Maybe that changes later in January, but I kind of wish we would see higher heights fester there.

Some of the pattern seems a bit of a hangover from last winter which is good and bad.

[CoastalWx]

Some of the pattern seems a bit of a hangover from last winter which is good and bad.

Yeah some similarities , but different ENSO. I'm actually thinking February will be a good month, but that's a WAG. January looks to start off with a good pattern.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah some similarities , but different ENSO. I'm actually thinking February will be a good month, but that's a WAG. January looks to start off with a good pattern.

The lack of a sustained neg NAO will probably hurt the odds of a blockbuster more than anything else, which is favored later in the season climowise, anyway.

If I bust on January, it will probably be because we usually need a KU to see a month like that, so I gambled a bit.

[CoastalWx]

The lack of a sustained neg NAO will probably hurt the odds of a blockbuster more than anything else, which is favored later in the season climowise, anyway.

If I bust on January, it will probably be because we usually need a KU to see a month like that, so I gambled a bit.

Hey January could end up real good. Who knows. The pacific could be real nice for us if it keeps up. Nothing wrong with your thoughts at all. It's an outlook put forth nicely.

[weathafella]

Growing fun signal 12/30-1/7.

[CoastalWx]

Take the under.

[NorEastermass128]

Well, this is obviously a bust....and not a tepid bust, either.

Man shed style.

2.5" on the month, and with king James' clipper sinking faster than the Titanic, it's safe to say that I won't see much more than that through mid month.

I'm going to go ahead and lower January to 10-20", and hold off on issuing an amended seasonal range until the end of the month, but if I had a gun to my head right now, knock all of my ranges down about 20"....so 70-80" in my area.

Like i said, I'll make it "official" at the end of the month.

I would go 45-55" in our backyards. Probably 25-35" BOS.

[CoastalWx]

Well I'm not saying below, but my guess based on extended range and time to catch up is probably the under on 70-80. But I'm hesitant to say dead ratter.

Hey, it's just a guess. Who knows. Nothing is impossible this far out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We'll see....I'm actually torn between two camps...70-80" and 45-55".