NEG NAO Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 One cool thing ... if we do get measurable in NYC, it will preclude our first freeze. I know it's not that rare of an occurrence, but I wonder how many times this has happened in the past? Going to be very difficult tonight to get anything more then a trace in Central Park according to the 12Z guidance .......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Going to be very difficult tonight to get anything more then a trace in Central Park according to the 12Z guidance .......... I'd put the odds higher than "very difficult" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Depending on what model you look at, the models are real close to starting as snow west of the GSP. Thermal profiles look to be aligned from SW to NE with a heavier burst possible before ending. Would not shock me to see some brief observations of moderate snow, especially on the northern shore of LI right as things are shutting off. Should probably wait for the Euro before making this call, but this screams coating on grassy and cold surfaces for the immediate coastline. Up to 2" north of the LIE with possible icey spots. 1-2" for most of NNJ and 1.5-2.5" for the hills of Sussex, Passaic, Orange, Westchester and Sullivan Counties. We'll go with a local JP site of up to 3" at KHPN where the best dynmaics should overlap the coldest available air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Depending on what model you look at, the models are real close to starting as snow west of the GSP. Thermal profiles look to be aligned from SW to NE with a heavier burst possible before ending. Would not shock me to see some brief observations of moderate snow, especially on the northern shore of LI right as things are shutting off. Should probably wait for the Euro before making this call, but this screams coating on grassy and cold surfaces for the immediate coastline. Up to 2" north of the LIE with possible icey spots. 1-2" for most of NNJ and 1.5-2.5" for the hills of Sussex, Passaic, Orange and Sullivan Counties. We'll go with a local JP site of up to 3" at KHPN where the best dynmaics should overlap the coldest available air. It will all come down to timing and the intensity of the precip. While N and W areas will be a touch colder at the surface, they will be struggling with precip intensity. The better Jet dynamics are right along the coast, as evidenced by every model having the precip bullseye near NYC and LI. While the surface temps start out warmer on the coast, the dynamics are better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 It will all come down to timing and the intensity of the precip. While N and W areas will be a touch colder at the surface, they will be struggling with precip intensity. The better Jet dynamics are right along the coast, as evidenced by every model having the precip bullseye near NYC and LI. While the surface temps start out warmer on the coast, the dynamics are better. You might have more intense precip at the coast but the cold air will arrive too late. That's why I'm calling for the JP zone to be north of the Thruway given orographic enhancement. If you look at the high res models, they have a secondary max that runs up 287 and into Westchester. It's also a lot easier to get wet snow to stick to grass than paved surfaces. I highly doubt that LGA or JFK records more than a trace, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 You might have more intense precip at the coast but the cold air will arrive too late. That's why I'm calling for the JP zone to be north of the Thruway given orographic enhancement. If you look at the high res models, they have a secondary max that runs up 287 and into Westchester. Depends on what you are looking at. The 12z Rgem and the 12z Ukmet have sufficient soundings for 3-4 hours of snow on the coast and it coincides with the heavier precip from 6z to 9z (while 99% of us will be sleeping). IMO, the jackpot zone will be somewhere near the coast. My guess is Huntington, LI (area) to SWCT and the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Depends on what you are looking at. The 12z Rgem and the 12z Ukmet have sufficient soundings for 3-4 hours of snow on the coast and it coincides with the heavier precip from 6z to 9z (while 99% of us will be sleeping). IMO, the jackpot zone will be somewhere near the coast. My guess is Huntington, LI (area) to SWCT and the Hudson Valley. Well the GFS has that sneaky warm layer around 925mb and I'm just not sure if the dynamics are going to be sufficently strong enough to cool the column. And even if you briefly top out at .50" per hour rates, I just don't see it lasting long enough to do anything but whiten the ground. If this was a more intense system, then I would agree with you. Up North, you have the colder air and orographics on your side, and HPN being further East is further away from the dryer air wrapping in on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 "A snow alert will go into effect Thursday evening for New York City, the Department of Sanitation posted on its Twitter account." "Snowfall is not expected to clear 1/2 inch, but city agencies will be monitoring the forecast throughout the evening for changes" http://pix11.com/2014/11/13/department-of-sanitation-issues-snow-alert-for-8-p-m/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 NWS could probably justify a WWA in some places tonight given that it's the first accumulating snowfall of the season and they have been known to do so in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 NWS could probably justify a WWA in some places tonight given that it's the first accumulating snowfall of the season and they have been known to do so in these situations. In my county(Sussex) I typically don't see anything for an inch or 2 of snow. 2-3 is typically the min. Considering this is the 1st legit snow threat, it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 In my county(Sussex) I typically don't see anything for an inch or 2 of snow. 2-3 is typically the min. Considering this is the 1st legit snow threat, it is possible. If this was January you would likely not see anything, it's more of a public awarness issue, especially since it's November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 If this was January you would likely not see anything, it's more of a public awarness issue, especially since it's November. Probably issue a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT alerting drivers of possible slick driving conditions come tommorow AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Euro has a heavier burst between 03z and 06z. Looks plenty cold for snow for just about everyone. It doesn't have the same warm punch at 925mb that the GFS had. Everyone would be snow before 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Euro has a heavier burst between 03z and 06z. Looks plenty cold for snow for just about everyone. It doesn't have the same warm punch at 925mb that the GFS had. Everyone would be snow before 03z. what are the qpf amounts? About 0.2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 what are the qpf amounts? About 0.2"? Euro is exactly .20" for NYC. It's wettest run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 RAP looks to be a burst of precip as it comes through. Probably rain turning to snow falling with surface temps in the mid to upper 30s, all other levels below freezing. It will be at night so accumulation will be possible. Still thinking a coating for almost everyone. It seems as if this will be more of a burst coming through and out within 2-3 hours at most.....not a 6+ hour event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Even if you went with 6:1 ratios 0.2" is 1.2". Some of that of course would be wasted until the heavier rates kicked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Even if you went with 6:1 ratios 0.2" is 1.2". Some of that of course would be wasted until the heavier rates kicked in. The point is that the 12z Euro now agrees that the best dynamics are near the coast of NYC and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Euro snow map - To be taken with a grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The point is that the 12z Euro now agrees that the best dynamics are near the coast of NYC and north. That's actually incorrect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 18z NAM is looking mighty interesting for the interior. Even if you factor in some initial rain it still gives most up here 1-3". Not saying its right but nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 18z NAM is looking mighty interesting for the interior. Even if you factor in some initial rain it still gives most up here 1-3". Not saying its right but nice to see We'll see what happens. I guess it depends on how heavy the snow rates are. The warm ground temps won't help. Could be a slight accum. on grassy surfaces and cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 We'll see what happens. I guess it depends on how heavy the snow rates are. The warm ground temps won't help. Could be a slight accum. on grassy surfaces and cars. You being right along the Hudson is not ideal for early season snowfall but areas in the usual areas will probably see some light accumulations. Years ago when I used to live in New Windsor it was torture for me to have snain while my folks in Highland Mills w/ an ele of 900' were experiencing accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I find it interesting that York PA is reporting Light Snow at 4 PM - York is about 25 miles south of Harrisburg. The radar and reports kind of remind me of the Nov 2012 event when it started snowing south of us in the heavier precip that was approaching the area - have to see if that happens tonight also http://kamala.cod.edu/pa/latest.asus41.CTP.KCTP.html http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Radar doesn't look bad at all. Smells like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Gfs shows the coast changing to snow. Shows .25-.50qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 You being right along the Hudson is not ideal for early season snowfall but areas in the usual areas will probably see some light accumulations. Years ago when I used to live in New Windsor it was torture for me to have snain while my folks in Highland Mills w/ an ele of 900' were experiencing accumulation. Elevation FTW......I'm at 39 now. Should flip pretty quick. Allentown reporting moderate rain and headed in this direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 You being right along the Hudson is not ideal for early season snowfall but areas in the usual areas will probably see some light accumulations. Years ago when I used to live in New Windsor it was torture for me to have snain while my folks in Highland Mills w/ an ele of 900' were experiencing accumulation. Thats for sure. This part of the county many times has had less than other sections due to the elevation. Up on storm King mtn., is a whole different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 SN in Mt. Pocono and Hazelton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I thought the NWNJ crew would enjoy the latest 18z Rgem: Total Precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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