Zelocita Weather Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 0z gfs has wettest run...0.25" - 0.35" qpf...some of which is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Rgem also has c -2" accum snow amounts for Friday period outside of NYC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The 0z GEFS qpf is .25"-.50" from NYC south. Rain to snow for the coast. Euro shifted west. Now brings .10 into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Shocked at the lack of enthusiasm here.. this is our first snowfall of the season! Not bad at all considering it's only Nov 13th too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 On 11/13/2014 at 1:20 PM, Sn0waddict said: Shocked at the lack of enthusiasm here.. this is our first snowfall of the season! Not bad at all considering it's only Nov 13th too. I was up until 2 am tracking this event and the event next week. It's always fun tracking the first flakes of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Noaa for Brooklyn Quote Tonight: Rain before 1am, then snow. Low around 35. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. Northwest wind 7 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Although its going to amout to a very small amount of snow, it is the first flakes of the season so it is noteworthy. I will say i jumped ship on this ant, if i get accumulating snow it will be a pleasant surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 On 11/13/2014 at 1:51 PM, REDMK6GLI said: Although its going to amout to a very small amount of snow, it is the first flakes of the season so it is noteworthy. I will say i jumped ship on this ant, if i get accumulating snow it will be a pleasant surprise I don't care if it doesn't stick. I just want to see flakes in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Hopefully everyone can get the first flakes late tonight into tomorrow morning. If I get a 1/2 inch to an inch that will be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Weatherunderground Quote Forecast boundary layer would suggest rain at the start thisevening across western zones. Then colder air moves in...plentycold enough aloft to support snow. Used raw NAM data...with editsdue to resolution around Long Island...for temperatures tonight...whichobviously has an impact on weather type. Felt MOS just did notcapture temperature trends for the tonight period.In general...rain or a rain/snow mix changes to snow from west toeast before ending between 6z-12z.If precipitation is heavier...column may cool enough for a quickertransition than currently forecast.Could see up to an inch of snow...with perhaps slightly higheramounts across the higher elevations in southern CT. These amounts perwpc westward discussion/graphics...and collab with surrounding offices.NYC and Li would only see trace amounts...maybe a dusting to ahalf an inch. However...this can change. Please see storm totalsfor best estimates at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 On 11/13/2014 at 1:37 PM, Snow88 said: I was up until 2 am tracking this event and the event next week. It's always fun tracking the first flakes of the season. Ha don't doubt it. Only bummer about this is any snow will most likely fall when 90% of us are asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The 12z NAM ticked a bit wetter and colder. I'm now fairly confident that places NW of the city pick up a coating, perhaps a bit more. Maybe even a coating for places further East. I fully admit that I had completely dismissed this a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 On 11/13/2014 at 2:15 PM, Sn0waddict said: Ha don't doubt it. Only bummer about this is any snow will most likely fall when 90% of us are asleep. The 12z NAM has this coming in well before Midnight in most places. Should be just about done by 4-5AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 On 11/13/2014 at 2:34 PM, IsentropicLift said: am I reading correctly thats .50 over most of KNYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 On 11/13/2014 at 2:39 PM, nyblizz44 said: am I reading correctly thats .50 over most of KNYC? .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 DSnowX for the win! He said not to sleep on this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Nice to get the first flakes of the season in november Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Not bad maybe a coating NYC and 1-2" NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 My call.... NYC/ E Essex, E Bergen, E Union, Hudson, Middlesex, Momouth, Long Island: Mostly rain, first flakes/mix at end of storm W Essex, W Bergen, S/C Somerset, W Union: Rain then some snow: Coating - 1/2" Hunterdon, N Somerset, Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Warren: Mostly Snow: 1/2" - 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 12z Rgem has accumulating snow down to NYC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Watch this warm layer around 925mb...rooted there despite cooling at 850mb and sfc http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/RAP/12/NE/rapNE_925_temp_014.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 On 11/13/2014 at 3:36 PM, ag3 said: 12z Rgem has accumulating snow down to NYC now. Looks good in my backyard on that map. Going to hope my elevation = winning tonight Heck, if the trends continue, I could push 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 On 11/13/2014 at 3:39 PM, earthlight said: Watch this warm layer around 925mb...rooted there despite cooling at 850mb and sfc http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/RAP/12/NE/rapNE_925_temp_014.gif Interesting. I wonder how much the RAP's long-range warm bias is at play (if at all) given that the NAM is much cooler at 925mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 On 11/13/2014 at 3:36 PM, ag3 said: 12z Rgem has accumulating snow down to NYC now. I think we go over to potentially accumulating light snow around 6Z in the NYC Metro, up to 1/2 inch looks like a good call by NWS http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/namsndg/lga.gif.18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 One cool thing ... if we do get measurable in NYC, it will preclude our first freeze. I know it's not that rare of an occurrence, but I wonder how many times this has happened in the past? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 On 11/13/2014 at 3:39 PM, earthlight said: Watch this warm layer around 925mb...rooted there despite cooling at 850mb and sfc http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/RAP/12/NE/rapNE_925_temp_014.gif Agreed, but you are using the RAP (a very inconsistent model, IMO; especially outside of 8 hours). I'm more inclined to use the rgem/ukmet/euro combo this close to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 On 11/13/2014 at 3:45 PM, Animal said: Looks good in my backyard on that map. Going to hope my elevation = winning tonight Heck, if the trends continue, I could push 2 inches Yup. Rgem is picking up on the elevation. Which is why it's a superior short range model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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