Gilbertfly Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Euro is more bullish with southward extent than the GFS/NAM for Thu/Fri, but not like the GGEM. Chicago gets about .1 qpf. ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 ratios? 3:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Liking where we sit here for the Thursday clipper. 12z qpf GEM- ~0.20" EURO- 0.12" GFS- 0.09"NAM- 0.05" The usual wildcard of course is ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 3:1 lol 9Z plume showing .03 qpf and .3 total snow sure....now they go with a 10:1 ratios ... (trust me....not looking at every plume like the last system ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Liking where we sit here for the Thursday clipper. 12z qpf GEM- ~0.20" EURO- 0.12" GFS- 0.09" NAM- 0.05" The usual wildcard of course is ratios. If they (ratios) are anything like last night its gonna be nothing more than a mood dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 If they (ratios) are anything like last night its gonna be nothing more than a mood dust. Last nights ratios were about 11:1. Its all going to depend....temps once again will be brutally cold when the snow is falling, but this clipper is of different origin, a true clipper from Canada (which often have good ratios), and while it will not have near the moisture last nights clipper did, this is sort of a MI special, not a fringe job like last night. At this point with no big storms on the horizon but lots of cold, might as well take all of the snow we can get as our snowcover will slowly be added upon. This sugar does not settle much, unlike fluffy powder either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 If this one shifts south the way the last one did, I'm money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Will just post this here....With high pressure build from the NW on Monday we will see a period of onshore flow across the Western Great Lakes. Delta T's are around -15C and with NNE winds, the best convergence focuses on SE WI, possibly far NE IL While the boundary layer will be centered in the DGZ, inversion heights could be better and subsidence will be an issue above the inversion. At this time, I can't see anything more than 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Maybe we'll see that clipper entering the region around D3.5 trend south some as that seems to be the case with those types of systems. The H5 setup is not terribly hostile to that kind of trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Maybe we'll see that clipper entering the region around D3.5 trend south some as that seems to be the case with those types of systems. The H5 setup is not terribly hostile to that kind of trend. Even if a southern track were to occur it wouldn't be anything more than 1.0" at best. Other than that, nothing really in sight. Maybe the threat of some light snow/mixing this weekend from another clipper. Moreover, another 2.5" and we'll be ahead of 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Even if a southern track were to occur it wouldn't be anything more than 1.0" at best. Other than that, nothing really in sight. Maybe the threat of some light snow/mixing this weekend from another clipper. Moreover, another 2.5" and we'll be ahead of 09-10. Yeah, well, I'll take 1" over nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I have to say I like how the January thaw is slowly being eroded. There's a chance this January could outdo last year for cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Even if a southern track were to occur it wouldn't be anything more than 1.0" at best. Other than that, nothing really in sight. Maybe the threat of some light snow/mixing this weekend from another clipper. Moreover, another 2.5" and we'll be ahead of 09-10. Wow, meaning the entire 2009-10 season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Wow, meaning the entire 2009-10 season? Yes, 2009-10 is remembered fondly in the US, but it was an absolute bust in Toronto and not much better in Ottawa either. I believe it was the driest winter on record for Toronto, with records going back to 1840. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yes, 2009-10 is remembered fondly in the US, but it was an absolute bust in Toronto and not much better in Ottawa either. I believe it was the driest winter on record for Toronto, with records going back to 1840. I remember that winter well because Mike about lost it . It was overall a very average winter here snow-wise (with a disproportionately heavy amount of snow falling in Feb then a snowless March), if you want to split hairs a TAD above normal actually, but it was still the red-headed stepchild of the 4-year snow blitz of 2007-08 thru 2010-11. The other 3 winters each had around 2 feet+ more snow than 2009-10. Also, I remember that was the funky winter where Maine was torching and seeing bare ground in Feb while everyone else was cold. It was really only fondly remembered in the midatlantic states, not only because they were buried in feet of snow, but also because in the several winters before AND after they were lucky to see the grass tips covered for a few hours once or twice the entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yes, 2009-10 is remembered fondly in the US, but it was an absolute bust in Toronto and not much better in Ottawa either. I believe it was the driest winter on record for Toronto, with records going back to 1840. YYZ in 2009-10 recorded 5.10" of precipitation for DJF. Basically impossible to find an already computed table of DJF stats for YYZ, but just a cursory investigation by yours truly shows that it wasn't the driest winter on record. The following winter, 2010-11, had just 4.95" of precipitation for YYZ during DJF for eg. If by driest, you mean least snowiest, that record was set in 2009-10 but then broken again two winters later in 2011-12. The current futility mark is 16.9" set in 2011-12. And NE lower MI was suffering with us too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I remember that winter well because Mike about lost it . It was overall a very average winter here snow-wise (with a disproportionately heavy amount of snow falling in Feb then a snowless March), if you want to split hairs a TAD above normal actually, but it was still the red-headed stepchild of the 4-year snow blitz of 2007-08 thru 2010-11. The other 3 winters each had around 2 feet+ more snow than 2009-10. Also, I remember that was the funky winter where Maine was torching and seeing bare ground in Feb while everyone else was cold. It was really only fondly remembered in the midatlantic states, not only because they were buried in feet of snow, but also because in the several winters before AND after they were lucky to see the grass tips covered for a few hours once or twice the entire winter. lol, I was losing it as recently as last winter while Toronto was missing out on a historic winter. It's been a rough stretch. This winter's kind of blah too but at 28 you have to grow up and put this stuff into perspective. It's weather. It's going to do what it's going to do. And throwing temper tantrums about it is akin to insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 lol, I was losing it as recently as last winter while Toronto was missing out on a historic winter. It's been a rough stretch. This winter's kind of blah too but at 28 you have to grow up and put this stuff into perspective. It's weather. It's going to do what it's going to do. And throwing temper tantrums about it is akin to insanity. what was Torontos final snowfall last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 what was Torontos final snowfall last winter? 59.7" at the ruler measured city station. 54.4" at the airport nipher gauge. Above normal in both cases, but nothing remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 59.7" at the ruler measured city station. 54.4" at the airport nipher gauge. Above normal in both cases, but nothing remarkable. We did have a number of snowstorms though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 We did have a number of snowstorms though. Sure. You can't nickel and dime your way to 60" (well, 2010-11 says hello ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Looks like 3-4 days of non accumulating snow is in our future. Prelude to a change....he says hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 can't wait for another 1.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Highly anticipating my 0.6". Just a close miss from 1.5". I'm never bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Todays snow dropped 1.0" at DTW and 0.9" imby. What is weird is that through the day, though the ground remains frozen & the high hit 31F with no snow, the surface must still have been a bit mushy from all the recent snowmelt, because in spots that were bare some of the snow melted/soaked up/morphed into the ground it seems throughout the afternoon, but in spots where there was old glacier snow it didnt really budge. Hard to believe but we have nickeled and dimed our way to double-digit January snow totals (10.0" imby & 10.4" at DTW) with more on the way. Seeing how ratios were near a good 15-20:1 today and tomorrow we will be colder and in better banding, thinking a good 2-3" tomorrow in this winter of the clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Freezing drizzle....glaze forming on some surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The 00z NAM, GFS, RGEM all in agreement for 0.15-0.20" qpf for the southern third of lower MI tomorrow. Temps in the 20s, thinking a good 2-3 inches of fresh powder on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Freezing drizzle....glaze forming on some surfaces Just mist here. Nothing freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 LOT... 847 PM CST MAIN FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IS WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO COOL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST USHERING IN SLIGTHLY COOLER/DRIER AIR. HOWEVER ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA TEMPS REMAIN AROUND FREEZING WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING NEAR 30 DEGREES. THE LACK OF LIFT WILL PREVENT PARCELS FROM BEING ABLE TO TRANSITION INTO DENDRITES...WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE MID- LVL WAVE SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA INTO NORTHWEST IL...THIS WILL INTRODUCE SOME OMEGA INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW PARCELS TO LIFT...HOWEVER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST THE SATURATION/MOISTURE WILL RESIDE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THEN AROUND DAYBREAK OR JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MOISTURE CREEPS UP TOWARDS THE DGZ. AS A RESULT HAVE PUSHED THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...STILL HAVE CONCERNS ON HOW MUCH SNOW MAY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE AS THE SATURATION DOES NOT REMAIN WITHIN THE DGZ FOR LONGER THAN A COUPLE HOURS AND LIFT IS RATHER WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.