Gilbertfly Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 nice pics guys! a dusting in spots is all that is visible here this morning...but the ground is certainly starting to freeze over... hourly has single digit lows Tuesday morning and double digit below zero windschills Some flurries flying around...that make 4 straight days with at least flurries...and that looks to continue through at least Wednesday 7 straight days of flurries or better isn't bad for mid November for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Picked up another few tenths overnight. Right at an inch total. Another little band moving through now may add a little bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 My brother lives in Lakeview in Chicago and I asked him how much snow he got, bc they had 1.4" at ORD and T at MDW, and he said wow, only probably like 0.3". Cutoff must have cut right through Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 2014 the year winter was king !! Looking forward snow and cold seems to be the way to go as of late. Crazy part is I'm still working on getting equipment ready. Nothing here last night but the forecast looks locked and loaded for winter fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 -SN ... prolly already equals last nights accums for mby with a fresh dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 A thing of beauty. MODEL QPF CONSENSUS ALONG WITH SNOW RATIOS BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYERTEMPERATURES SUGGESTING A GENERAL 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL FORECAST.ALTHOUGH...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR THAT WRAPS INTO THEAREA THESE NUMBERS COULD BE A TOUCH HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERNAREAS.THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EASTMONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAYACROSS THE ACROSS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE FRONTWILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TURN SHARPLY COLDER AND WESTERLY WINDS TOINCREASE. THIS WILL BEGIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS IN EARNEST.LAKE EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE ARCTIC AIRTHAT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THISPERIOD WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR MID NOVEMBER WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURESDROPPING TO -14C TO -16C...SOME 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOWNORMAL. THE INITIAL LOW LEVEL FLOW SET UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ADOMINATE WEST-SOUTHWEST SNOW BAND OFF BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKEONTARIO. THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAYNIGHT WILL VEER THE FLOW SLIGHTLY TO WESTERLY.VERY IMPRESSIVE OMEGA WITHIN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOWNON BUFKIT OVERVIEWS. PROFILES SUCH AS THESE OFTEN ARE SIGNALS FORINTENSE SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HIGHLIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER AND LIGHTING. SNOWFALL TOTALS DURING THISPERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE AND LIKELY OF SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT.IN ADDITION...MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST WIND GUSTSCOULD EXCEED 35 MPH ENHANCING IMPACTS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING ANDDRIFTING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.BY THE TIME WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM SHOULD BERAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION...WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS ATTENDANTSYNOPTIC SNOWS REACHING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THEPROCESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FORCE A RAPID BACKING OF THE WINDSWHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR WEDNESDAYMORNING...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE LAKE SNOWS QUICKLYSHIFTING TO AREAS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND DRAMATICALLYWEAKENING BY MIDDAY...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MORE GENERAL LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.&&.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF WEDNESDAY`S CLIPPER SYSTEM...ANOTHERSIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR THEBALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK. COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTMOISTURE...THIS WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD RESULT IN A SECOND ROUND OFSIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS EAST-NORTHEAST AND/OR EAST OF THE LAKESWEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LAKE ONTARIO PERHAPSHAVING THE MORE FAVORABLE SETUP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I picked up a nice 3.2" of very fluffy snow later yesterday and overnight. The liquid precip total is only 0.14". A 23 to 1 snow to water ratio is pretty extreme for mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I picked up a nice 3.2" of very fluffy snow later yesterday and overnight. The liquid precip total is only 0.14". A 23 to 1 snow to water ratio is pretty extreme for mid November. Wow, a nice start to the winter for you. Finished with 1.2" here. Just warm enough that some of the snow has melted back enough to show the grass more than it had earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 0.8" here total. Ratio was more like 27:1 here. Snow is disappearing even with upper 20s and clouds. Just not enough moisture in it to have much staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The summary from DVN from the first widespread accumulating event of the season. Looks like Hawkeye was ground zero for the best amounts in the DVN CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Noticed the GGEM showing a wave Thursday Night - Friday AM. Little snow potential there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Interesting how banded the snowfall was last night, expected more of a broadbrush light to moderate snow band spanning much of Southern Wisconsin, ended up just north of the best stuff, but still received around an inch (while MKE reported 1.7") so I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Interesting how banded the snowfall was last night, expected more of a broadbrush light to moderate snow band spanning much of Southern Wisconsin, ended up just north of the best stuff, but still received around an inch (while MKE reported 1.7") so I'll take it. It was kind of odd how that worked out. If you weren't under the "green" shades on the radar for most of the event, you didn't do so great. It was amazing how dry that snowfall was for mid-November. Operational GFS showing this in the next 96 hours. Edit: GGEM showing 3" amounts locally now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Wont' be too big of a snow, but Clipper on Wednesday looks to bring a dusting to 2" for areas outside the snowbelts and from I-80 on north roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Picked up an additional 0.3" yesterday morning. Add that to the 1.4" from Saturday night, for a 1.7" total here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Not expecting anything other than a few flurries here this week. Next system of importance looks to be a rain maker this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Looking like around an inch, maybe up to 2" in spots across northern IL, east of I-39 and north of 88 early Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 MKX on the Clipper: NAM CROSS SECTIONS YIELD A PERIOD OF OMEGA OCCURRING IN THEFAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH ALSO INTERSECTS A BURST OFFRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO OF AROUND 20 TO 1DURING THIS PERIOD. HENCE DESPITE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OFQPF...MOST AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF DRY SNOW BY MID-MRNG WED. THIS SNOW WL HAVE A GREATER IMPACE AND AFFECT WED MRNGRUSH HOUR. WL MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW. -SN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WESTTO EAST LATE TUE NGT THRU WED MRNG AS WARM AIR SURGE AND SHARP TROFAXIS SHIFT TO THE EAST. LOT LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.AS INDICATED ABOVE HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHESQUICKLY IN NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RESULTING BACKING OFLOW LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION BRINGING THE POTENTIALFOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT INTOWEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THISCLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM...THOUGH COLD COLUMN SUPPORTS SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS15-20:1 WHICH COULD SUPPORT AN INCH OR MORE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSSPARTS OF FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST IL EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TROUGHMOVES THROUGH AND COLUMN DRIES OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 18z NAM came in a little more bullish with the weak clipper for Weds morning. good area of .10" liquid across most of the LOT CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Sure did. 4km NAM pretty similar. Edit: 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Looks like there could be a minor icing threat across the area Friday night/Saturday before temps warm sufficiently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 final call of .7 IMBY tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 18z NAM actually moistened up a bit. Also around 0.10" now as well imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 18z NAM actually moistened up a bit. Also around 0.10" now as well imby. the weak vort perks up just in time for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Really liking around 2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Not expecting much tomorrow...maybe a half inch if we're lucky. Classic stat padder perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Really liking around 2" here. Dave Rexroth concurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Dave Rexroth concurs. Yeah that looks like a pretty reasonable map, I am sure someone will jackpot to 2.5" and someone will suckerhole to 1.5" but the majority looks to be in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 4km NAM showing concurs with the current forecast. Even a southwest suburban bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 4km NAM showing concurs with the current forecast. Even a southwest suburban bullseye. QCA riding the edge as usual lol. And so it begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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