RyanDe680 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 1.4" ORD looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Yeah, not liking the trends with part 1. However we still need to watch the second part for a possible northward shift. Don't like our chances with part II, but I just saw the regular 12z NAM clips us with it...after the whiff on part I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 12z GGEM snowfall at 10:1. Northern wave shifted south a bit on this model. 1-3" in my area grids for tomorrow night. cmc_snow_acc_east_15.png MKX snowfall map. Semi bullish map I'd say. I'll be impressed if I get more than an inch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Ouch on the maps above, LAF completely shut out on the NAM. Well, this went down the tubes quickly for here. Glad I got that little surprise snow last night. Borderline non event for DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 With the 12z GFS jump northward, DAB is looking more likely than anything else for down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Borderline non event for DTWyou said 0.3", I said 1.0"...it may be between that. Thet really are no non-events in November lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Don't like our chances with part II, but I just saw the regular 12z NAM clips us with it...after the whiff on part I. Several of the GFS ensemble members are farther north, almost like the NAM. Obviously would rather be farther south for that part but still close enough to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 pretty dramatic numbers for 4 inch under soil on 11/14 (understandable given the current cold spell, but) ... this was the hourly reading at 10 AM CST... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 you said 0.3", I said 1.0"...it may be between that. Thet really are no non-events in November lol Both are still very possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 via LOT for Saturday night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 pretty dramatic numbers for 4 inch under soil on 11/14 (understandable given the current cold spell, but) ... this was the hourly reading at 10 AM CST... 14NOV soil temps 4 inch.png Yeah very impressive. I believe they were around 50 a week or two ago? Could drop another agree or two getting into the teens tonight out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Yeah very impressive. I believe they were around 50 a week or two ago? Could drop another agree or two getting into the teens tonight out here. yeah def chillin' out.... for St. Charles.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 12z GGEM snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 18z NAM looks like it's going to hold with Monday's wave, if not tick north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 18z NAM looks like it's going to hold with Monday's wave, if not tick north. Yeah looks a bit north to me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 4km NAM showing more snow in southern WI. Nice SW flow event showing up around Holland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 The SW flow events usually hit my area harder than in Holland. I wonder why it is showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Looks like models are painting about 0.1" qpf across eastern WI, high res models slightly higher. 1-2" looking like a decent bet. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 DVN goes with WWA for tomorrow's event....calling for 1 to 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Gonna narrow my earlier 1-2" call down to around an inch for the QCA. Normally this would be a non-event, but will be the first measurable snow of the season here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 The SW flow events usually hit my area harder than in Holland. I wonder why it is showing that. I agree, it doesn't make sense. Shift that north a little and that is probably closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I agree, it doesn't make sense. Shift that north a little and that is probably closer to reality. The 00Z NAM is more realistic, even though it looks more like what you would see from a west wind event. I hear that Hudsonville got a lot of snow today. You might have more than my 10 inches on the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 0z 4km NAM. Parallel GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Looks like it's all or nothing for LAF with the late Sunday/early Monday event, because tonight/overnight is a non-starter. The Canadian cousins and GFS brothers are shutouts for here for part 2, with only the Euro and NAM giving a little love. So, my probability forecast for LAF with the second event... 66% chance of nothing 33% chance of something measurable 1% chance of a fluke (may or may not be based off the FIM or some other obscure model) Sunday night/Monday looks pretty good for southern/central IN and OH...especially for a mid-November snow. Good luck to you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 12z NAM gone a little bigger, it seems...for the Sunday night/Monday deal. It's a little warmer than most models in the low levels, in spots at times. Alas, here's the 60 hour total QPF and snowfall maps, through 0z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Radar returns moving in from the SW, but seems as if there is some dry air to be overcome before flakes reach the ground. Forecast calls for 2". Looks like a decent call. Good luck to those getting the first real snowfall today and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 About a half inch down so far imby. Roads are incredibly slick despite the light accums. The cold temps have really lowered the road temps the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Some SN reports/obs with that band just south of Des Moines. Looks like the best accumulations maybe be south of what the models predicted. Bottomed out at 15° this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Wow the 12z Euro qpf for DTW Sunday/Monday - 0.12" (temps upper 20s) Tuesday - 0.04" (upper teens to low 20s) Wednesday - 0.05" (teens & 20s) Friday - 0.28" (upper 20s...temps plunge to 3F post storm) Sunday - 0.69" (mid to upper 20s) Cant get better in November...lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Looks like Alek's good karma is paying off for chi town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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