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Winter 2014-15 Short Term Discussion


Chicago Storm

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Don't like our chances with part II, but I just saw the regular 12z NAM clips us with it...after the whiff on part I. :arrowhead:

 

Several of the GFS ensemble members are farther north, almost like the NAM.  Obviously would rather be farther south for that part but still close enough to watch.

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pretty dramatic numbers for 4 inch under soil on 11/14 (understandable given the current cold spell, but) ... this was the hourly reading at 10 AM CST...

 

attachicon.gif14NOV soil temps 4 inch.png

 

Yeah very impressive. I believe they were around 50 a week or two ago? Could drop another agree or two getting into the teens tonight out here. 

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I agree, it doesn't make sense.  Shift that north a little and that is probably closer to reality.

 

The 00Z NAM is more realistic, even though it looks more like what you would see from a west wind event.

 

I hear that Hudsonville got a lot of snow today. You might have more than my 10 inches on the ground?

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Looks like it's all or nothing for LAF with the late Sunday/early Monday event, because tonight/overnight is a non-starter. The Canadian cousins and GFS brothers are shutouts for here for part 2, with only the Euro and NAM giving a little love. So, my probability forecast for LAF with the second event...

 

66% chance of nothing

33% chance of something measurable

1% chance of a fluke (may or may not be based off the FIM or some other obscure model)

 

Sunday night/Monday looks pretty good for southern/central IN and OH...especially for a mid-November snow. Good luck to you all.

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