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Winter 2014-15 Short Term Discussion


Chicago Storm

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The American models have gradually trended closer to the farther northeast foreign models, so now they all show Cedar Rapids in the 0.40-0.50" range, which would make 4-5 inches a decent bet here.

 

DVN was thinking 16-18:1 LSRs in their disco this afternoon, so you could be looking at 6"+ if that verifies.  I'm thinking 12-15:1 should be about as low as they go considering the depth of the DGZ and thermo profiles.  RGEM is most aggressive for both of us, and has been the last few days.  It's done pretty well this year, and does have support from the UK and Euro.  GFS and NAM coming in more juicy this evening is a good sign as well.  Think I'm gonna bump my call for here to 3-4", and 4-5" for the QC.  I think CR is likely to get close to 6".  Jackpot will probably be in that nice pivot area east of Des Moines along I-80 somewhere near Grinnell.  Could be a few 9-11" lollies out there.

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Latest RAP has 0.50" precip for the QCA, and the HRRR looks a tad northeast of the other models as well.  3-4" call here may be a bit low if trends continue.  QC looking good for 5" of fluff, and thinking Hawkeye easily breaks the 6" mark now.

 

 

back dooring you way into a decent event over there

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Really looking good over here for at least 5-7".  The foreign models did pretty well with this system and the american models gradually caved over the last 48 hours.  The UK model has been #1 this year.  It nailed both of our potent clippers as well as the Superbowl storm.

 

 

be interested to see how you do, looks like returns just pushing in

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Approaching 3 inches here.  It's a nice clipper, but nothing memorable.  It has been mostly very small flakes with a couple better bands thrown in that had decent flakes.  I'm expecting to finish at about 5 inches.  Some of the models (GFS/NAM) totally bombed with this system.  For a long time they had the heaviest snow in sw Iowa, but it ended up in northern Iowa.  The Des Moines are is going to get a fair amount less than earlier expected.

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