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Winter 2014-15 Short Term Discussion


Chicago Storm

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MSP and most of MN are in the 'marginal' risk category for thunderstorms tomorrow per the SPC. About 100 J/kg of MUCAPE being progged. Sure, I'll take some thundersleet. Let's do it.

Interesting...haven't had to chance to check out soundings yet

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NAM/GGEM and RGEM bring warm advection wing precip through northern IL tomorrow evening. Definitely more bullish than GFS and Euro with southern extent of precip. GGEM and RGEM have done well before on farther south placement of WAA precip with clippers on other occasions this winter. If it happens this way, with plenty of dry air aloft, wet bulbing would likely transition any sleet/mix at onset to snow.

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Won't be a big snow but it should rip pretty good for a few hours. Thunder now in the grids and they just upped totals here north of STP. Thermals don't seem to be as big of a concern anymore here in eastern MN.

 

I no longer have warm air concerns. Tonight's high res models have been locked and loaded for us.

 

My goodness at the 00z RGEM...

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