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Winter 2014-15 Short Term Discussion


Chicago Storm

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Report from Hoosier's guy.

 

0615 PM SNOW 2 W WEST LAFAYETTE 40.44N 86.95W

02/04/2015 M2.9 INCH TIPPECANOE IN BROADCAST MEDIA

 

I'm going out to measure here in a bit.

 

Arm chair QB'ing, but probably should have had a WWA...considering the timing/intensity of the snow. Bunch of accidents being reported around here...hill on 52 going up into WL was supposedly impassable. And of course troubles on I-65 to the north in White County.

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Report from Hoosier's guy.

 

0615 PM SNOW 2 W WEST LAFAYETTE 40.44N 86.95W

02/04/2015 M2.9 INCH TIPPECANOE IN BROADCAST MEDIA

 

I'm going out to measure here in a bit.

 

Arm chair QB'ing, but probably should have had a WWA...considering the timing/intensity of the snow. Bunch of accidents being reported around here...hill on 52 going up into WL was supposedly impassable. And of course troubles on I-65 to the north in White County.

 

WWA FTW here. Demolition derby in the area this evening.

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A clipper pays off again here. 3.7" as of 7PM (.23 liquid or 16:1) with -SN still falling. Have total depth of 7.5".

 

Nice.

 

Good job by the SREF plumes, which had been indicating a mean of 2-3" for the past few runs.

 

I never looked at them. Seems they have been pretty good lately though.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  

450 PM CST WED FEB 04 2015  

   

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON  

   

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  

 

..REMARKS..  

 

0445 PM SNOW PONTIAC 40.88N 88.64W  

02/04/2015 E5.0 INCH LIVINGSTON IL CO-OP OBSERVER  

 

ESTIMATED 4 TO 5 INCHES TOTAL ON THE DAY. FINAL REPORT  

WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THURSDAY MORNING.  

 

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A little late here, but totaled 2.8" at my place. Open roads were drifted over on my drive back from downtown dinner. Not bad.

 

Pretty consistent reports out of the LAF. Chad reported 2.9" and I just grabbed this one off of NWSChat:

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

859 PM EST WED FEB 04 2015

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0858 PM SNOW 3 NNE LAFAYETTE 40.45N 86.85W

02/04/2015 M2.8 INCH TIPPECANOE IN COCORAHS

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Pretty consistent reports out of the LAF. Chad reported 2.9" and I just grabbed this one off of NWSChat:

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

859 PM EST WED FEB 04 2015

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0858 PM SNOW 3 NNE LAFAYETTE 40.45N 86.85W

02/04/2015 M2.8 INCH TIPPECANOE IN COCORAHS

That sounds awfully like my report, although should have been West Laf. But yeah, good to hear reports all in line.

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Yeah I'm liking the flow that flattens out over MO and southern IA. The TC should be in a good spot for decent lift on Tues/Wed. I just hope the thermals don't bite us. This is the best setup so far this winter for a decent hit.

Chitown and Brewers check the Minnesota forecaster site for my thoughts on Tuesday snow chances, it now looks gloomy.

 

http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/

 

Upper support outruns the surface low.

 

I'm known there as randyinchamplin

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Chitown and Brewers check the Minnesota forecaster site for my thoughts on Tuesday snow chances, it now looks gloomy.

 

http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/

 

Upper support outruns the surface low.

 

I'm known there as randyinchamplin

Agreed, the past few model run have me feeling less than thrilled. Models have shifted to a more consolidate low near the US/Canada border which keeps the lower levels "toasty" and best forcing to the north of us. I guess the GFS is trying to hang on to something more preferable.

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Agreed, the past few model run have me feeling less than thrilled. Models have shifted to a more consolidate low near the US/Canada border which keeps the lower levels "toasty" and best forcing to the north of us. I guess the GFS is trying to hang on to something more preferable.

At this point, I'm all for a 6 hour sleet fest. Seriously, we can't catch a break this winter.

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At this point, I'm all for a 6 hour sleet fest. Seriously, we can't catch a break this winter.

 

12z GFS isn't buying into the NAM yet... 00z Euro would probably be a good compromise but still not what we are looking for in the TC. I'd lean more towards snow, although probably won't be much.

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FWIW the 4km NAM and RGEM keep the precip in the form of snow for the entire event in MSP.  They both did an excellent job with p-type here with the superbowl storm.  Unfortunately the biggest issue for MSP is the heaviest precip is largely gonna fall just north of there.  Need a little shift south to get that heavier precip down there.  Right now it's looking like 1-3" type event, with the RGEM the most generous in the 2-3" range.

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