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Winter 2014-15 Short Term Discussion


Chicago Storm

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Several snow chances coming up. Gaylord NWS discussions the last few days have, in a humorous way, shown they are not pleased with everything hitting downstate and south this winter. I havent really grasped the fact that if these threats pan out we may exceed last years snow depth. Not duration of deep snow, but actual depth. WOW!

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Several snow chances coming up. Gaylord NWS discussions the last few days have, in a humorous way, shown they are not pleased with everything hitting downstate and south this winter. I havent really grasped the fact that if these threats pan out we may exceed last years snow depth. Not duration of deep snow, but actual depth. WOW!

6Z GFS was a nice train of nickle/dime events ... :thumbsup: ... I hope it works out.

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Lakes are going to be freezing over soon.

 

Interesting to see as Lake Ontario looks like it has have more ice than normal.  Couple things different than last year is the colder air is a bit more east and it has not been nearly as windy.

 

Lake Michigan it still wide open.  Huron will likely be done in the next week or 2 baring a GFS/EURO model failure.

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Will be curious to see what the 12z ECMWF does as the 00z run was a better hit for areas farther north (I-80).

 

 

It boosted amounts a little for everyone, by about 0.10" or so. 0.30" for LAF. 

 

Models have backed off the snow for here for tomorrow. Looks like an inch at best now.

 

Another nice head fake by the mighty Euro.  :rolleyes:

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Interesting to see as Lake Ontario looks like it has have more ice than normal.  Couple things different than last year is the colder air is a bit more east and it has not been nearly as windy.

 

Lake Michigan it still wide open.  Huron will likely be done in the next week or 2 baring a GFS/EURO model failure.

 

Yeah, it has been colder over in this area than last year where the coldest air was well northwest of us. We got cold here, but nothing compared to the stuff over Lake Superior/Michigan.

BuffaloWeather - just noticed your seasonal snowfall  total already above 170" - awesome... 

 

Thanks! This is the highest amount of snow I've ever witnessed. It's the best back to back year snowfall totals in southern Erie County history I believe. 88 inches of snow in 3 days in November sure does help...I accidently deleted my total from last year when updating my sig with the Snovember snow pictures, but was able to look back and grab the official total in an old thread. The average in my area is 100"-120" a year.

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I think we may do a little better (couple inches?).  Won't be fighting precip type this time at least. 

 

My p&c from IND says less than an inch. With the trend for drier, it's a good call.

 

Wednesday: Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 23 by 5pm. West wind 9 to 13 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

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My p&c from IND says less than an inch. With the trend for drier, it's a good call.

 

Wednesday: Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 23 by 5pm. West wind 9 to 13 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

 

 

1.4" to get to 20" for the season.  If I had to bet I'd say we make it.

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Nice little quick hitter for mby.  From Izzi

 

GIVEN WE SAW BRIEF SNOWFALL RATES >1IN/HOUR YESTERDAY WITH 1/4SM
SNOWS AND THE SETUP LOOKS EVEN BETTER TODAY...SEE NO REASON THAT WE
WONT HAVE A REPEAT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES DEVELOP WITH THE BANDING
AGAIN TODAY WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...THE MESOSCALE BANDING LOOKS TO ALIGN A BIT BETTER WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIP WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LONGER RESIDENCE TIME UNDER THE HEAVY SNOW BAND FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW ACCUMS IN THE GRIDS TO 2-5" RANGE SOUTH OF I-80
AND HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER WX ADV. WHILE AMOUNTS ARE ON THE LOWER
THRESHOLD OR JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD...FELT THE POTENTIAL FOR
+SN AND RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR MADE IT EASY TO JUSTIFY THE HEADLINE.
NOT EXPLICITLY FORECASTING THIS TO OCCUR...BUT IF THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST THEN IT WOULD NOT TAKE
TERRIBLY LONG FOR THE BAND TO STALL OUT TO HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
PILE UP TO LOCALLY AROUND 6 INCHES WHICH IS REASONING FOR INCLUSION
OF LOCALLY HEAVIER WORDING IN WSW.

 

 

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Wow, either everyone is burned out or very few members in the 3-5 inch zone today. Nice little quick hitter. Little talk of it.

I am a bit surprised too.  We have a thread for the WI/MI/MN system last night (2-4").  Today's system looks even a little better for parts of IL/IN/OH yet the talk has been very little. 

 

Izzy's AFD is excellent!

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Temp quickly rising...up to 35˚ here right now. Might have to introduce p-type issues.  :arrowhead:

 

12z 4km NAM with a little band of 0.25-0.30" to the north of here. Jackpot in Indiana.

 

attachicon.gifhires_t_precip_indy_8.png

Sun is out and the temp on the rise.. Up to 38F now..  Looking good towards the northern part of IN!

 

Nothing like a bit of melted snow to start out as..

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Sun is out and the temp on the rise.. Up to 38F now..  Looking good towards the northern part of IN!

 

Nothing like a bit of melted snow to start out as..

 

:maphot:

 

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 953 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE BUMPED

TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. THE

FRONT IS JUST ENTERING THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...SO

TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST WILL STAY STEADY EARLY THEN FALL.

READINGS WILL FALL ELSEWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES

THROUGH.

 

But yeah, north of here looking good. Just hoping to squeeze out an inch here, but with these temps...up to 36˚ here now...   :yikes:

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