dryslot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 An area of 10mm from SE MA almost to BOS on RGEM...just E of BOS. Saw that verbatim, How much of that you think is snow? My guess is they would cool last in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 yep Could be interesting in our neck of the woods overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I don't think I'll get much accumulation in this area. Probably about a coating. The best lift being displaced to the south, coupled with potential BL issues this low in elevation and close to the coast spell wait until December for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Saw that verbatim, How much of that you think is snow? My guess is they would cool last in that area Yes...agreed. Though the NW edge of that 10mm..or just NW of it like where 8mm is, I would think those areas could do pretty well. The typical Foxboro/Walpole weenie jackpot. A lot of the "heavier" precip falls late in the game, which is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Yes...agreed. Though the NW edge of that 10mm..or just NW of it like where 8mm is, I would think those areas could do pretty well. The typical Foxboro/Walpole weenie jackpot. A lot of the "heavier" precip falls late in the game, which is a good thing. Yeah, Places with some elevation just inland should do pretty well in SE areas down that way, Right on the water is going to have to wait longer but heavier rates can overcome some of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Yes...agreed. Though the NW edge of that 10mm..or just NW of it like where 8mm is, I would think those areas could do pretty well. The typical Foxboro/Walpole weenie jackpot. A lot of the "heavier" precip falls late in the game, which is a good thing. I'm amazed how dead on similar the RGEM and NAM12 are with QPF. Basically a difference of 0.01 between friends, especially up this way. RGEM a little more gung ho for the Cape, and NAM12 a little more "convective" looking with a banded structure in SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 GFS looks pretty wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Seems to be some model consistency for little to meh' in NW MA/N Berks Let the MPM qpf worries commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 I'm amazed how dead on similar the RGEM and NAM12 are with QPF. Basically a difference of 0.01 between friends, especially up this way. RGEM a little more gung ho for the Cape, and NAM12 a little more "convective" looking with a banded structure in SE MA. The NAM still has a bit of a MAUL above 600mb that also lines up with the snow growth region...there could be some pretty heavy snow bands for a brief time before this slides east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 12z GFS has a nice stripe of 0.50" on the cape into the DE Maine coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 GFS is still warm. Seems a bit too warm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 GFS looks pretty wet. 0.25-0.50" it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The NAM still has a bit of a MAUL above 600mb that also lines up with the snow growth region...there could be some pretty heavy snow bands for a brief time before this slides east. That extends up the coast too. PWM has it as well around 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 For Worcester weenies, the 1-3 on weatherunderground seems accurate, then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 That extends up the coast too. PWM has it as well around 09z. Yeah its along the NW side of the ML frontogenesis...that's actually a pretty good looking setup for some brief heavy snow bands...it makes for a nervous forecast. You kind of want to go just a general 1-2"...but in the back of my mind I start thinking that someone could go gangbusters for 90 minutes and it ends up as like 4.5". On the flip side, if it doesn't materialize, then we're looking at slushy coatings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 GFS is still warm. Seems a bit too warm to me. The soundings are kind of strange...it isn't saturated in the lowest levels at 06z despite decent qpf already occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 How much for mby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 It will be interesting to see the euro thermal profile. GFS is warm with 950 WB at 0C for 6z even at ORH. I sort of think it is too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The soundings are kind of strange...it isn't saturated in the lowest levels at 06z despite decent qpf already occurring. Yeah I saw that. It's a bit strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 How much for mby? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Yeah its along the NW side of the ML frontogenesis...that's actually a pretty good looking setup for some brief heavy snow bands...it makes for a nervous forecast. You kind of want to go just a general 1-2"...but in the back of my mind I start thinking that someone could go gangbusters for 90 minutes and it ends up as like 4.5". On the flip side, if it doesn't materialize, then we're looking at slushy coatings. On a more anecdotal level, this may be a good early test of this season's persona, or "vibe", so to speak. Will it be more like 2004-'05, where every single queef evolves into 3-6", or will it be more akin to 2009-'10, in which the most nuclear of set ups found a way to terd their way to mediocrity. Only time will tell. That is often what seperates good seasons from historic ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Yeah its along the NW side of the ML frontogenesis...that's actually a pretty good looking setup for some brief heavy snow bands...it makes for a nervous forecast. You kind of want to go just a general 1-2"...but in the back of my mind I start thinking that someone could go gangbusters for 90 minutes and it ends up as like 4.5". On the flip side, if it doesn't materialize, then we're looking at slushy coatings. That was Ekster's briefing before he headed off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 2-4 frim NE CT up thru ORH to NW Ri. That's the best triangle it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Most likely Min Max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The weenie rule is to start high and you can adjust higher if need be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 On a more anecdotal level, this may be a good early test of this season's persona, or "vibe", so to speak. Will it be more like 2004-'05, where every single queef evolves into 3-6", or will it be more akin to 2009-'10, in which the most nuclear of set ups found a way to terd their way to mediocrity. Only time will tell. That is often what seperates good seasons from historic ones. Yeah there's a brief window where this could do pretty well. We always seem to maxmize those in the blockbuster seasons. Between about 3am-6am over E MA/RI is really where I'd be careful about a potential bust in the positive direction. If we get a few NE to SW oriented heavy snow bands for a brief time. Could be a sloppy coating to an inch...but if those bands materialize like a lot of the guidance is hinting at, then it could be a bit higher impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 It will be interesting to see the euro thermal profile. GFS is warm with 950 WB at 0C for 6z even at ORH. I sort of think it is too warm. The NAM and Euro look pretty similar in the boundary layer with the temperature profile. The GFS seems to be the odd man out as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The NAM and Euro look pretty similar in the boundary layer with the temperature profile. The GFS seems to be the odd man out as usual. That's my guess. I mean throw the GFS idea of a band of heavier precip with something closer to the NAM profile, and that's almost advisory snow..lol. In my mind, I ease off the GFS thermal towards the euro and NAM..but not sure it will be NAM-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The NAM and Euro look pretty similar in the boundary layer with the temperature profile. The GFS seems to be the odd man out as usual. I remember a season or two ago, ...the NAM and Euro were cold for an event that turned to be rain and the GFS won... Just looking at the straight FRH grid for BOS, those intervals are snow all the way... I think it was +2, -1, -2 C at 1000, 900, and 800mb sigmas. That +2 is really meaningless if they really get .43 (12z NAM) or over .5 (06z NAM) liq equiv -- it's biggish aggregates at 35 at Logan? No problem snowing in the eastern ORH hills and interior sections. 'Course, ...there are tools that have more discrete partial thickness analysis, too... Narrow ANA thingy though. Notice ALB didn't get the memo - ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Yeah there's a brief window where this could do pretty well. We always seem to maxmize those in the blockbuster seasons. Between about 3am-6am over E MA/RI is really where I'd be careful about a potential bust in the positive direction. If we get a few NE to SW oriented heavy snow bands for a brief time. Could be a sloppy coating to an inch...but if those bands materialize like a lot of the guidance is hinting at, then it could be a bit higher impact. I cut a cross section from the elbow of the Cape, through BOS, to near LEB. You can see the potential the NAM shows. The star roughly marks BOS. I highlighted how the best lift occurs above and on the warm side of frontogenesis max, through the snow growth zone, and below an area of instability (as evidenced by the -EPV). This also occurs in a saturated layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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