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Late Thu night/Early Fri light snow


ORH_wxman

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  On 11/13/2014 at 8:55 PM, skisheep said:

BOX updated,

 

 

Looks pretty decent. I might throw a couple 2-4 speckles over Foxboro/Walpole area, but otherwise that N RI area is where I'd pick for the best shot at 2"+ and they highlighted that pretty well.

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  On 11/13/2014 at 8:57 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Looks pretty decent. I might throw a couple 2-4 speckles over Foxboro/Walpole area, but otherwise that N RI area is where I'd pick for the best shot at 2"+ and they highlighted that pretty well.

Yeah I agree almost perfectly with that map, although I think there's bust potential in their <1" areas depending on how temps go, I don't think you can have enough confidence at areas right on the water getting over 1" to go higher. They have up to 1" tonight and up to .5" tomorrow for me about 3 miles off the water so c-1.5" which I think is a perfect forecast.

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  On 11/13/2014 at 8:37 PM, dryslot said:

Good map Chris

 

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

 

CAR's Version

 

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

 

Last year a map like that almost always verified as a coating, or less, for the foothills.  Maybe this year will be different.  (Of course, having the 3-5" forecast on 3/19/14 wind up as 13" was a nice end-game treat.)  Current dews are near 20, so any precip might quickly cool things down and allow snowflakes to survive.

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  On 11/13/2014 at 9:34 PM, tamarack said:

Last year a map like that almost always verified as a coating, or less, for the foothills.  Maybe this year will be different.  (Of course, having the 3-5" forecast on 3/19/14 wind up as 13" was a nice end-game treat.)  Current dews are near 20, so any precip might quickly cool things down and allow snowflakes to survive.

 

You're completely right too. We did a terrible job for your area especially, constantly over-predicting how far north that edge of heavy snow would get.

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  On 11/13/2014 at 10:06 PM, OceanStWx said:

I mean I'm confused by that and I have a grasp of probabilistic forecasting.

 

Maybe they are updating their forecast. The min/likely/max columns correspond to the min/likely/max maps, while the percentage columns correspond to the percentage maps. There is the same disconnect with the maps.

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  On 11/13/2014 at 10:09 PM, JC-CT said:

Maybe they are updating their forecast. The min/likely/max columns correspond to the min/likely/max maps, while the percentage columns correspond to the percentage maps. There is the same disconnect with the maps.

 

And that's why it's experimental, because that results in very confusing numbers. Ideally all maps would be updated at the same time to avoid this.

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