Deck Pic Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah, I didn't do you any favors. Always have said I have little long range forecasting chops. I don't think you ever questioned my temps...I think you said you generally thought they looked fine...It isn't like -0.5 is much different from +0.5, but I think the latter will be closer....I'm glad I didn't go cold....plus December could help me if we have a super cold month.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Actual in Parentheses Dec: 0 to -1 (+4.3): D January: -3 (-0.4): C February: -1 to -2 (-8.7): C- Overall: -1 to -2 (-1.6): A+ DCA: 16" (13.4") A- (DCA is weighted more) BWI: 21" (21.0") A+ IAD: 25" (26.4") A Temp Grade: B Snow Grade: A- Outlook grade: B/B+ (so far...snow could change. I'll revisit in a few weeks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Excellent on the snow call, great job. Curious why a 5.3 Dec variance gets a D but a 6.7 Feb variance gets a C- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Excellent on the snow call, great job. Curious why a 5.3 Dec variance gets a D but a 6.7 Feb variance gets a C- Cold call versus warm call. Calling for a slightly cool December and having a semi-torch is a bad call. The only redemption is that I didn't go super cold, and that it was my warmest month with respect to normal. February I went for somewhat below normal .-1.5 is colder than 70% of Februaries. We of course had an insanely cold February. I am never going to go colder than -3 to -4 for a month in an outlook, and in fact I don't think I've ever gone colder than -3. Doesn't mean -3 to -4 would have been an A, but when you have a 98th percentile month and you call for a 70th percentile month at a 3 month lead, it is a mediocre call. Not a terrible one. You can't always use absolute numbers. If someone had called for a -4 February back in October, which is an 85th percentile cold month, and it was -9, they missed by 5 degrees, but in my mind it is an A/A- call.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 What would it of taken to get an F for December. Great forecast overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It's funny. You had to use an extreme February which you didn't call for to help make up for the December big warm which you didn't call for to get you the overall A+. I though January was colder though than only -0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Actual in Parentheses Dec: 0 to -1 (+4.3): D January: -3 (-0.4): C February: -1 to -2 (-8.7): C- Overall: -1 to -2 (-1.6): A+ DCA: 16" (13.4") A- (DCA is weighted more) BWI: 21" (21.0") A+ IAD: 25" (26.4") A Temp Grade: B Snow Grade: A- Outlook grade: B/B+ (so far...snow could change. I'll revisit in a few weeks) Have to say an overall good, solid forecast for the DJF period. Of course, we may not be done in terms of snow totals...maybe nothing big, but enough to pad the final tallies (though I know you're only including what fell in DJF). I think you're perhaps a bit harsh on yourself for the January temperature grade, at least when one takes into account the cold departures for BWI and IAD (which were a fair bit more than DCA's). You'd probably earn a "B/B+" if the whole DCA/IAD/BWI area were taken into account. As for snow, couldn't be more spot-on than what you forecast! Odd winter. I don't think anyone was anticipating such a warm December or the relative lack of snow (and snow fails) around here until February. Even to our north into New England, they were desperate until the blizzard bombs hit them starting near the end of January. Such a back-loaded winter and very cold February, made for a rather exciting and interesting finish to DJF! Again, not sure if too many saw that kind of evolution for the season; I think a lot of people's general call of "colder with near to somewhat above normal snow" verified, just not in the way they thought back in November. In the temperature department, this February finally did what I was hoping it would: surpass the cold from February 2007. According to the preliminary monthly record for DCA, we out-did 2007 by 0.6 degrees. I know it's nothing like Feb. 1979's cold, but I'm going in terms of winters and Februaries since I've been here (2001). 2007 has always stood in my mind as a solidly back-loaded winter that really turned itself around. This year was very similar, in fact, even more so. The cold was more intense and we ended up with notably more snow. And, on a side-note. I've also been tracking the cold in KCLE, which is my home town. According to their preliminary monthly for February, they broke the all-time coldest February which goes back to 1875!! In fact, they beat the record by 0.9 degrees, which is quite impressive (14.3 this year; 15.2 in 1875). They had consistent -25 to -30 departures the entire second half of the month. I was there in January 1977 when they had the coldest month ever (in January, averaged 11.0 degrees). Thus now (at least unofficially at the moment), Jan. 1977 and now Feb. 2015 stand as the two coldest months ever at KCLE, and both of those within my lifetime. Pretty incredible. Sorry for the long-winded dissertation, but this kind of stuff can be interesting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Actual in Parentheses Dec: 0 to -1 (+4.3): D January: -3 (-0.4): C February: -1 to -2 (-8.7): C- Overall: -1 to -2 (-1.6): A+ DCA: 16" (13.4") A- (DCA is weighted more) BWI: 21" (21.0") A+ IAD: 25" (26.4") A Temp Grade: B Snow Grade: A- Outlook grade: B/B+ (so far...snow could change. I'll revisit in a few weeks) I would give Dec an E, Jan a C and Feb a C, that averages a D+. The overall is an A+ and it does show once again, I think, how the overall is more important than the monthlies(I think you disagree about that) I would grade the overall temp call, the combination of the individual monthlies and the overall average as a B/B-. The snowfall call I would rate an A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 I would give Dec an E, Jan a C and Feb a C, that averages a D+. The overall is an A+ and it does show once again, I think, how the overall is more important than the monthlies(I think you disagree about that) I would grade the overall temp call, the combination of the individual monthlies and the overall average as a B/B-. The snowfall call I would rate an A. Thanks, but If December is an E, then you better be inventing a new grade for KA's February call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Thanks, but If December is an E, then you better be inventing a new grade for KA's February call. He did very good on the snow again and two of the three months but the overall was bad and Feb as bad as it can get. of us 3 it was you, me, him in that order for 2014-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 He did very good on the snow again and two of the three months but the overall was bad and Feb as bad as it can get. of us 3 it was you, me, him in that order for 2014-15. I think the monthlies do matter. They aren't just there for fun. They tell a story. But overall is more important. Everyone else gets to draw a map and plop a -2 anomaly over the mid Atlantic and claim victory. We shouldn't be heavily penalized for getting the months all wrong, but they do matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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