Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 To echo pretty much everyone else here...good work, and a nice forecast! Have to like the chances with the temperature forecast you all have, especially the bullish -3 for January and mentioning the expectation of more consistent (if not as strong) cold compared to last year. Snow is always a tough beast to pin down around here, so going "slightly above" normal sounds pretty darned good. I also appreciated how you pointed out the stark difference between the median snow vs. normal in this area. Hope it pans out, with as much snow as we can get, of course! And hope for lots of after seeing Euro runs on various storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 To echo pretty much everyone else here...good work, and a nice forecast! Have to like the chances with the temperature forecast you all have, especially the bullish -3 for January and mentioning the expectation of more consistent (if not as strong) cold compared to last year. Snow is always a tough beast to pin down around here, so going "slightly above" normal sounds pretty darned good. I also appreciated how you pointed out the stark difference between the median snow vs. normal in this area. Hope it pans out, with as much snow as we can get, of course! And hope for lots of after seeing Euro runs on various storms! I agree, and the article was full of good, clear explanations. Well done on the outlook and as many have said, well written. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Dang...I was pretty close ;-) Easy to read write up...appreciate the efforts and good luck with verification! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Good luck guys! Hope it pans out. FWIW I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 smacking down commenters at the Post is tiring. I'm an average Joe, but it's difficult for anyone with an ounce of intelligence not to get a superiority complex reading the comments of any well-written article in a U.S. newspaper. As a nation, we are pretty stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Agree with the temperatures and snow values. I am less convinced than you that we will not have shots of extremely cold air. My only, yet severe, criticism is the business about "this is a low confidence forecast" I would suggest that in reality anyone having an ability to do something like a long range outlook MUST have confidence in it or they really would never have been able to assemble what is needed in order to even make such forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Nice work. Good Luck. The outlook looks very reasonable. It's not easy when you put yourself out there for the entire public to see and then of course critique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Agree with the temperatures and snow values. I am less convinced than you that we will not have shots of extremely cold air. My only, yet severe, criticism is the business about "this is a low confidence forecast" I would suggest that in reality anyone having an ability to do something like a long range outlook MUST have confidence in it or they really would never have been able to assemble what is needed in order to even make such forecast. I think we will see a couple very intense arctic shots. The majority of analogs packages that most are using point towards some extreme cold days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Well done.... I was particularly impressed that you think this winter will average as cold as last year. Looking forward to it. Snow totals look very reasonable for a weak Nino with favorable AO/NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Agree with the temperatures and snow values. I am less convinced than you that we will not have shots of extremely cold air. My only, yet severe, criticism is the business about "this is a low confidence forecast" I would suggest that in reality anyone having an ability to do something like a long range outlook MUST have confidence in it or they really would never have been able to assemble what is needed in order to even make such forecast. I think we will see a couple very intense arctic shots. The majority of analogs packages that most are using point towards some extreme cold days. I think I could have done a better job explaining the cold......Certainly in predicting a -1 to -2 winter, I expect some decent cold shots...there is no other way to get there....But I don't expect 3 separate cold shots to produce -20 departures - Perhaps we have one cold outbreak that produces those kind of departures - nor do I expect to have 33 50+ degree days.....I think 15-20... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I think I could have done a better job explaining the cold......Certainly in predicting a -1 to -2 winter, I expect some decent cold shots...there is no other way to get there....But I don't expect 3 separate cold shots to produce -20 departures - Perhaps we have one cold outbreak that produces those kind of departures - nor do I expect to have 33 50+ degree days.....I think 15-20... That's a nice way to quantify it. I think we will have three -15 to -20 shots which isn't exactly what you said anyway. One afternoon where high is not 20+ in afternoon. 15-20 seems right for 50+, mostly in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Well done.... I was particularly impressed that you think this winter will average as cold as last year. Looking forward to it. Snow totals look very reasonable for a weak Nino with favorable AO/NAO. On a (somewhat) side note, it's interesting that last winter could well have ended up even colder if it weren't for the nearly June-like temperatures the second part of December! That's a slight exaggeration and simplifying a bit much of course, but you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Are you going to do a radio interview, Matt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 On a (somewhat) side note, it's interesting that last winter could well have ended up even colder if it weren't for the nearly June-like temperatures the second part of December! That's a slight exaggeration and simplifying a bit much of course, but you get the idea. No it really did feel like June. In fact if you really look back, the first day of summer didn't feel very different from the first day of winter. I doubt this winter matches last year's cold except for the immediate DC metro (inside the beltway), where the anomalies weren't as impressive as elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/12/capital-weather-gang-2014-2015-winter-outlook-for-washington-d-c-colder-and-snowier-than-normal/ Nice write-up. And as others have said, very easy to understand. In the section where you're discussing El Nino and how a stronger El Nino could impact your snowfall forecast I didn't read anything (may have glanced over it) discussing specifics related to the timing of El Nino. If El Nino were to be stronger than you're anticipating, is there a timeframe you'd expect this to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Are you going to do a radio interview, Matt? not sure....haven't heard....I am presenting to DC Council tomorrow and then at the Post on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Nice write-up. And as others have said, very easy to understand. In the section where you're discussing El Nino and how a stronger El Nino could impact your snowfall forecast I didn't read anything (may have glanced over it) discussing specifics related to the timing of El Nino. If El Nino were to be stronger than you're anticipating, is there a timeframe you'd expect this to happen? ....It is spiking pretty nicely right now, so we will have to see what happens...but if it is going to go moderate, I think we will have an idea pretty soon whether we have a chance, and then it will take longer to see if we can maintain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Thanks for the explanation. It's nice to read a write-up that has some science behind it and not just.....hey, I think it's going to be cold and snowy.....just because. ....It is spiking pretty nicely right now, so we will have to see what happens...but if it is going to go moderate, I think we will have an idea pretty soon whether we have a chance, and then it will take longer to see if we can maintain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 not sure....haven't heard....I am presenting to DC Council tomorrow and then at the Post on Monday WTOP was teasing a story this morning about how "Siberian snowfall means cold weather for DC" or something and I thought it might be a lead-in for your interview. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Good luck with this one. Naturally I hope you bust low on those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The Monday event noted by Matt is open to the public. https://www.facebook.com/capitalweather/posts/872586529440601 I will be there heckling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 On a (somewhat) side note, it's interesting that last winter could well have ended up even colder if it weren't for the nearly June-like temperatures the second part of December! That's a slight exaggeration and simplifying a bit much of course, but you get the idea. yes, I will always think of that winter as cold, periodic warmup notwithstanding. I feel the same way about 95/96 even though that one had some memorable thaws even after these many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 yes, I will always think of that winter as cold, periodic warmup notwithstanding. I feel the same way about 95/96 even though that one had some memorable thaws even after these many years. I don't keep daily records but if I had to guess our area was probably only between +1 and +2 last December. After the storm on December 8th we stayed pretty chilly the next 10 days or so. I didn't look it up but I would assume BWI came in at +3-+4. So I definitely will remember last winter as a cold one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I don't keep daily records but if I had to guess our area was probably only between +1 and +2 last December. After the storm on December 8th we stayed pretty chilly the next 10 days or so. I didn't look it up but I would assume BWI came in at +3-+4. So I definitely will remember last winter as a cold one. Well there you go making me check my internal records. Here's what I have: Nov -2.0 Dec +2.5 Jan - 4.3 Feb -1.7 Mar -5.0 So definitely cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Well there you go making me check my internal records. Here's what I have: Nov -2.0 Dec +2.5 Jan - 4.3 Feb -1.7 Mar -5.0 So definitely cold. Yeah. Your records says it all. Very snowy December for an overall positive month but not a torch by any means. Look how close it was from a wire to wire negative departure cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Yeah. Your records says it all. Very snowy December for an overall positive month but not a torch by any means. Look how close it was from a wire to wire negative departure cold season. Incredible snowfall for a December with that kind of plus departure.... I recorded 15.75 inches that month and that was the Lowest amount in the Dec-Mar period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Monthly departures are generally the way we record the winter. But it doesn't tell the whole story of how cold those cold snaps were last winter. At Martinsburg, these were the departures during the coldest air masses: Jan. 3-9: -11.9 Jan 21-30: -14.9 Feb 6-13: -7.0 Feb 25- Mar 7: -11.9 Mar 23-27: -14.2 I may never again see the monthly mean temp for January colder at my local airport than at Anchorage, AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Incredible snowfall for a December with that kind of plus departure.... I recorded 15.75 inches that month and that was the Lowest amount in the Dec-Mar period. Even over here December was snowy. I managed to get over 8", and it was also the lowest monthly total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 I was going to go normal to +1 for DEC, and changed it last minute to accommodate some input...ultimately on me, but I doubt we finish normal or below.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I was going to go normal to +1 for DEC, and changed it last minute to accommodate some input...ultimately on me, but I doubt we finish normal or below.. Yeah, I didn't do you any favors. Always have said I have little long range forecasting chops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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