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Lake Effect Snow Belts Discussion Thread


TugHillMatt

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What's the biggest LES event you've personally witnessed in Battle Creek?

 

11 i believe? IMBY atleast.. Jan 2009.. In 06-07 there was a event that dumped about 14" just south of here along and just south of i-94 on the far south side of town. Was a mega i-94 band via a meso low that had pulled in a single band off the lake which got fed from Superior.

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Yeah lol, my next question was going to be how much you were thinking for this upcoming event in your hood? I didn't want to be a PITA, but it seems the potential is relatively high.

 

Yeah the potential is high. That we do know. More a matter of will we have all that is being advertised? Will it be a single dominate band and if so where? Or will it be multi bands?

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Yeah the potential is high. That we do know. More a matter of will we have all that is being advertised? Will it be a single dominate band and if so where? Or will it be multi bands?

 

The Hi-Res models seem to be suggesting multiple/transitionary bands, at least early on...

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Shades of late Dec 2001?

 

That was one of the rare events to dump well over a foot of LES here.

 

Do you know how much that dropped here in Muskegon?

 

Looks good for you guys in Western NY!

 

Just got in from shoveling this last round of snow. Wow, am I getting a workout! 12 inches on the deck and 8 inches in the yard. I shoveled for the third time already this season, and each time it has been VERY heavy and wet because the drive is warm.

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Do you know how much that dropped here in Muskegon?

 

Looks good for you guys in Western NY!

 

Just got in from shoveling this last round of snow. Wow, am I getting a workout! 12 inches on the deck and 8 inches in the yard. I shoveled for the third time already this season, and each time it has been VERY heavy and wet because the drive is warm.

 

I *think* there is missing data for there? Only shows 12.4" for the month with the site i use? :unsure: Ofcourse with a w to wnw flow the heaviest is usually south of you..

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I *think* there is missing data for there? Only shows 12.4" for the month with the site i use? :unsure: Ofcourse with a w to wnw flow the heaviest is usually south of you..

 

Where I live; Spring Lake, actually does really well with a WNW flow. Oddly, The WSW flows, like today, don't do much for us. They seem to just miss us.

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000

NWUS53 KAPX 171117

LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI

616 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 ENE ALLENVILLE 46.01N 84.73W

11/17/2014 E24.0 INCH MACKINAC MI BROADCAST MEDIA

HEAVY SNOW DURATION 18 HOURS.

&&

$$

NWS GAYLORD MI

IRIS SYSTEM

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nw lower gonna get crushed!  Boyne should be fine for your first visit... haha

 

attachicon.gifFile.png

I am a little surprised how conservative APX is being with their accumulations, i realize that LES is very localized and hard to pinpoint totals. But with this setup, 12-18" is almost a certainty most NW Snowbelts And their graphic shows 8+, little lackluster I guess. Usually they are more aggressive.  Although my pinpouint forecast is calling for 16"+. Just hope the public is aware of how serious this can./will be up here. 

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* TOTAL ACCUMULATION UP TO 4 INCHES DURING THE EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT MOSTLY DURING THE PEAK PERIOD OF 3 AM TO
9 AM.

 

Nice little LES shot.

 

If all periods of snow from today through Thursday were added up, that would be 3-8 Inches of LES here.

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I am a little surprised how conservative APX is being with their accumulations, i realize that LES is very localized and hard to pinpoint totals. But with this setup, 12-18" is almost a certainty most NW Snowbelts And their graphic shows 8+, little lackluster I guess. Usually they are more aggressive.  Although my pinpouint forecast is calling for 16"+. Just hope the public is aware of how serious this can./will be up here. 

 

I'm heading up on Thursday, let's hope for the 16.

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OMG!!!

 

A TROUGH OVERHEAD CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
WELL DEPICTED RAIN-SNOW LINE ON DUAL POL IMAGERY FROM ALLEGANY
COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH LOWVILLE. LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
IS FALLING INTO AN AREA JUST BARELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY
WET ROADS SEEN ON AREA WEBCAMS. THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT THE EVENT SEEMS
LIGHT ENOUGH TO REMOVE AN EXISTING ADVISORY. THIS WILL ALLOW FULL
FOCUS ON A MUCH MORE IMPORTANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT THAT WILL DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM PREVIOUS DATASETS...AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH A HEAVY HANDED SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO PUT DOWN 3-5 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL
HOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FORECAST SCENARIO MATCHES
SEVERAL NEAR RECORD SETTING EVENTS...DECEMBER 2001 TO NAME
ONE. TOP 10 EVENTS FOR BUFFALO GENERALLY PUT DOWN 24 INCHES IN
24 HRS. DUE TO AN EXPECTED EXTREME GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE LAKE BAND...KBUF MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT SEE THIS...BUT SEE NO
REASON WHY OTHER AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
EXCEED 24 INCHES...AND THAT IS JUST FOR THE FIRST EVENT ENDING
SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT ONE ON THURSDAY MAY
ALSO BE IMPRESSIVE...BUT THAT IS ANOTHER STORY...

500MB TEMPERATURE IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW -40C...A TESTAMENT TO
HOW UNUSUAL THE PATTERN WILL BE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE BOARD WILL BE SIMILARLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH 200MB WAY OF
THE CHARTS OVER A 30 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

WILL INCREASE FORECAST AMOUNTS A LITTLE...WITH UP TO 3 FEET IN THE
MOST HARD HIT AREAS...MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND
SOUTHTOWNS...AND OVER THE TUG HILL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE
CREATED ABOUT AS TIGHT OF A GRADIENT AS POSSIBLE FROM KBUF TO THE
NORTHTOWNS...WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DROPPING OFF TO AN INCH OR SO IN
NIAGARA COUNTY.

BLIZZARD CONSIDERATIONS...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...WITH BORDERLINE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN NY...AND A POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE SCENARIO EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. WILL CONTINUE TO REVIEW THE POTENTIAL SETUP THIS
AFTERNOON. COMPARISONS TO PREVIOUS NEAR AND VERIFYING LAKE EFFECT
BLIZZARDS DO NOT SHARE THE SAME PROFILE...WITH THIS EVENT
APPEARING TO BE CREATING ITS OWN STRONG WINDS WITHOUT AS MUCH
SUPPORT ALOFT. THIS IS NOT A CLEAR CUT CASE...NEED SOME MORE TIME TO
REVIEW THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE INTENSE LAKE SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH CAUSING THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER. DURING MOST OF THIS TIME...THE INTENSE
LAKE SNOWS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS... SKI
COUNTY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW QUICKLY BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST CARRYING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BACK NORTH ACROSS THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA. BY THIS TIME THE BAND SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER.

 

I am right in the middle of 30+!!!

 

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

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