Harry Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 What's the biggest LES event you've personally witnessed in Battle Creek? 11 i believe? IMBY atleast.. Jan 2009.. In 06-07 there was a event that dumped about 14" just south of here along and just south of i-94 on the far south side of town. Was a mega i-94 band via a meso low that had pulled in a single band off the lake which got fed from Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I admit i am not sure of what to expect with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I admit i am not sure of what to expect with this? Yeah lol, my next question was going to be how much you were thinking for this upcoming event in your hood? I didn't want to be a PITA, but it seems the potential is relatively high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Northern lower has been getting hammered all night. Some big totals I bet around the straights tonight. Some areas in Mackinaw county have had over 12" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Yeah lol, my next question was going to be how much you were thinking for this upcoming event in your hood? I didn't want to be a PITA, but it seems the potential is relatively high. Yeah the potential is high. That we do know. More a matter of will we have all that is being advertised? Will it be a single dominate band and if so where? Or will it be multi bands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Yeah the potential is high. That we do know. More a matter of will we have all that is being advertised? Will it be a single dominate band and if so where? Or will it be multi bands? The Hi-Res models seem to be suggesting multiple/transitionary bands, at least early on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Shades of late Dec 2001? That was one of the rare events to dump well over a foot of LES here. Do you know how much that dropped here in Muskegon? Looks good for you guys in Western NY! Just got in from shoveling this last round of snow. Wow, am I getting a workout! 12 inches on the deck and 8 inches in the yard. I shoveled for the third time already this season, and each time it has been VERY heavy and wet because the drive is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Do you know how much that dropped here in Muskegon? Looks good for you guys in Western NY! Just got in from shoveling this last round of snow. Wow, am I getting a workout! 12 inches on the deck and 8 inches in the yard. I shoveled for the third time already this season, and each time it has been VERY heavy and wet because the drive is warm. I *think* there is missing data for there? Only shows 12.4" for the month with the site i use? Ofcourse with a w to wnw flow the heaviest is usually south of you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 I *think* there is missing data for there? Only shows 12.4" for the month with the site i use? Ofcourse with a w to wnw flow the heaviest is usually south of you.. Where I live; Spring Lake, actually does really well with a WNW flow. Oddly, The WSW flows, like today, don't do much for us. They seem to just miss us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Nice supply of instability with all this cold air but these s/ws keep backing the flow too much. Not great for London. Spectacular for Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Just spent the weekend in Allegan ... it was sure nice to see 8-10" on the ground plus have it snowing most of the time Wish I could be there for this event. Looks like a potentially EPIC event is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 000 NWUS53 KAPX 171117 LSRAPX PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 616 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014 ...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0600 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 ENE ALLENVILLE 46.01N 84.73W 11/17/2014 E24.0 INCH MACKINAC MI BROADCAST MEDIA HEAVY SNOW DURATION 18 HOURS. && $$ NWS GAYLORD MI IRIS SYSTEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Just spent the weekend in Allegan ... it was sure nice to see 8-10" on the ground plus have it snowing most of the time Wish I could be there for this event. Looks like a potentially EPIC event is possible. nw lower gonna get crushed! Boyne should be fine for your first visit... haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Looks like an A+ week for the belts....enjoy guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 nw lower gonna get crushed! Boyne should be fine for your first visit... haha File.png I am a little surprised how conservative APX is being with their accumulations, i realize that LES is very localized and hard to pinpoint totals. But with this setup, 12-18" is almost a certainty most NW Snowbelts And their graphic shows 8+, little lackluster I guess. Usually they are more aggressive. Although my pinpouint forecast is calling for 16"+. Just hope the public is aware of how serious this can./will be up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 * TOTAL ACCUMULATION UP TO 4 INCHES DURING THE EVENING THROUGHTUESDAY MORNING...BUT MOSTLY DURING THE PEAK PERIOD OF 3 AM TO9 AM. Nice little LES shot. If all periods of snow from today through Thursday were added up, that would be 3-8 Inches of LES here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I am a little surprised how conservative APX is being with their accumulations, i realize that LES is very localized and hard to pinpoint totals. But with this setup, 12-18" is almost a certainty most NW Snowbelts And their graphic shows 8+, little lackluster I guess. Usually they are more aggressive. Although my pinpouint forecast is calling for 16"+. Just hope the public is aware of how serious this can./will be up here. I'm heading up on Thursday, let's hope for the 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 OMG!!! A TROUGH OVERHEAD CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH AWELL DEPICTED RAIN-SNOW LINE ON DUAL POL IMAGERY FROM ALLEGANYCOUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH LOWVILLE. LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN EDGEIS FALLING INTO AN AREA JUST BARELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLYWET ROADS SEEN ON AREA WEBCAMS. THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHTACCUMULATING SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT THE EVENT SEEMSLIGHT ENOUGH TO REMOVE AN EXISTING ADVISORY. THIS WILL ALLOW FULLFOCUS ON A MUCH MORE IMPORTANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT THAT WILL DEVELOPLATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM PREVIOUS DATASETS...ANDWILL CONTINUE WITH A HEAVY HANDED SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST...WITH SOMELOCATIONS EXPECTED TO PUT DOWN 3-5 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SEVERALHOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FORECAST SCENARIO MATCHESSEVERAL NEAR RECORD SETTING EVENTS...DECEMBER 2001 TO NAMEONE. TOP 10 EVENTS FOR BUFFALO GENERALLY PUT DOWN 24 INCHES IN24 HRS. DUE TO AN EXPECTED EXTREME GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OFTHE LAKE BAND...KBUF MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT SEE THIS...BUT SEE NOREASON WHY OTHER AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE ABLE TOEXCEED 24 INCHES...AND THAT IS JUST FOR THE FIRST EVENT ENDINGSOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT ONE ON THURSDAY MAYALSO BE IMPRESSIVE...BUT THAT IS ANOTHER STORY...500MB TEMPERATURE IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW -40C...A TESTAMENT TOHOW UNUSUAL THE PATTERN WILL BE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTSACROSS THE BOARD WILL BE SIMILARLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH 200MB WAY OFTHE CHARTS OVER A 30 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY.WILL INCREASE FORECAST AMOUNTS A LITTLE...WITH UP TO 3 FEET IN THEMOST HARD HIT AREAS...MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO ANDSOUTHTOWNS...AND OVER THE TUG HILL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. HAVECREATED ABOUT AS TIGHT OF A GRADIENT AS POSSIBLE FROM KBUF TO THENORTHTOWNS...WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DROPPING OFF TO AN INCH OR SO INNIAGARA COUNTY.BLIZZARD CONSIDERATIONS...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TOPREVIOUS GUIDANCE...WITH BORDERLINE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVERWESTERN NY...AND A POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE SCENARIO EASTOF LAKE ONTARIO. WILL CONTINUE TO REVIEW THE POTENTIAL SETUP THISAFTERNOON. COMPARISONS TO PREVIOUS NEAR AND VERIFYING LAKE EFFECTBLIZZARDS DO NOT SHARE THE SAME PROFILE...WITH THIS EVENTAPPEARING TO BE CREATING ITS OWN STRONG WINDS WITHOUT AS MUCHSUPPORT ALOFT. THIS IS NOT A CLEAR CUT CASE...NEED SOME MORE TIME TOREVIEW THIS.&&.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...OFF LAKE ERIE...THE INTENSE LAKE SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHTHROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH CAUSING THELOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER. DURING MOST OF THIS TIME...THE INTENSELAKE SNOWS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS... SKICOUNTY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.ON WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW QUICKLY BACKS TO THESOUTHWEST CARRYING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BACK NORTH ACROSS THEBUFFALO METRO AREA. BY THIS TIME THE BAND SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENINGPHASE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER. I am right in the middle of 30+!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 enjoy! to see a 3' snow is amazing... there's nothing like the lakes. pics and vid please, as I know you will! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Buffalo south towns FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Buffalo south towns FTW. 3-5 inches an hour actually sounds scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 3-5 inches an hour actually sounds scary. Can I come over. I will bring beer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Can I come over. I will bring beer? Yes sir! I might be heading over to an intersection where the weather channel is in a few minutes. I want to get on Tv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Yes sir! I might be heading over to an intersection where the weather channel is in a few minutes. I want to get on Tv. Do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 http://148.61.97.229/view/viewer_index.shtml?id=2595 Always my favorite web cam to watch...pretty intense looking in Grand Rapids.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Yes sir! I might be heading over to an intersection where the weather channel is in a few minutes. I want to get on Tv. Hold up a big www.americanwx.com sign while you're there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 If any of you Buffalo folks want to share some good webcams to watch that would be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 So jealous of Buffalo!Interested to see how much LES we get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 http://148.61.97.229/view/viewer_index.shtml?id=2595 Always my favorite web cam to watch...pretty intense looking in Grand Rapids.. That is a nice cam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 http://148.61.97.229/view/viewer_index.shtml?id=2595 Always my favorite web cam to watch...pretty intense looking in Grand Rapids.. Best web cam ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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