Thunder Road Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I saw a 2" LSR from the university as of 9 AM. Too high? Not sure who reported that. I'm typically the snow-measuring guy, haha. Looking out the window this morning and just eyeballing it I would have said that sounded good, but the actual measurement says otherwise. We're up to 2.6" as of 11:50 a.m.; 2.0" exactly in 2 hours. Snow depth checks out too. 6.5" last night --> 9.0" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Pretty cool here when you look at the maps... the lake not only can modify temps at the surface but aloft as well, as shown by this 925 mb temp prog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The IWX WRF is on board with the GGEM and Euro, and the 12z NAM looked similar too. Looks like a plume or secondary feeder band, like today, into mby after 0z Sunday, then the main band rotates through about 8-12z with heavier snow, then we're done shortly after that. Should be good for 5-10" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The IWX WRF is on board with the GGEM and Euro, and the 12z NAM looked similar too. Looks like a plume or secondary feeder band, like today, into mby after 0z Sunday, then the main band rotates through about 8-12z with heavier snow, then we're done shortly after that. Should be good for 5-10" here. Omega off the charts at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 End frames of the IWX WRF showing the band along the IL/WI shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 IWX MUCH DIFFERENT STORY IN OUR W/NW COUNTIES ONCE LAKE EFFECT RAMPS UP. 700MB TEMPS STILL SHOWN TO DROP TO AROUND -30C BY LATE SATURDAY SO INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 10 KFT. 12KM NAM STILL SHOWS A HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALONG ENTIRE STRETCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH 0-2KM DELTA THETA-E VALUES NEAR -5C/KM. FINAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND GREATLY UPON EXACT EVOLUTION OF NEAR SURFACE WIND FIELD AND RESULTING ORGANIZATION OF LAKE INDUCED CONVECTIVE BAND(S). STRONG GRADIENT WITH A 330-340 DEGREE FETCH SATURDAY EVENING WILL INITIALLY PREVENT A SINGLE/DOMINANT BAND FROM SETTING UP. WILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW BANDS DURING THIS TIME...THOUGH STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW GIVEN HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. SITUATION CHANGES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY AND GRADIENT RELAXES. NOT ONLY DOES THIS ALLOW A LAKE-INDUCED PRESSURE TROUGH AND MIDLAKE CONVERGENT BAND TO SET UP BUT ALSO ALLOWS FOR EXCELLENT LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION PER LATEST NAM12 PLUME ANALYSIS. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE A HEFTY DOMINANT BAND SET UP SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE PROBLEM IS THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE BAND FROM REMAINING IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING IT OUT OF OUR CWA ALTOGETHER. EVENT IS STILL 60-72 HOURS AWAY SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE FINE SCALE DETAILS IS NOT HIGH. WILL STICK WITH A CONSERVATIVE 2-6 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR NOW. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH LAKE EFFECT EVENTS...AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY SEE THE HIGHER END ACCUMULATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 LOT LAKE EFFECT DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...EXTREME 850 MB TO LAKE DELTA TS OF ABOUT 25C AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AT OR OVER 10KFT ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND(S) DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL STILL NEED TO ASSESS LATEST GUIDANCE CONCERNING OVERALL EVOLUTION...BUT GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN SWINGING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM NNW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO NORTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. STEADY LAKE SNOWS COULD GET INTO PORTER COUNTY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. I THEN BROUGHT CATEGORICAL POPS WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL MESOLOW/ENHANCED CONVERGENCE COULD LET SNOW HANG ON A BIT LONGER THAN WOULD OTHERWISE EXPECT. WILL LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF LAKE EFFECT HEADLINE AND WOULDNT BE SURPRISED WITH NEEDING ANOTHER WARNING FOR AT LEAST PORTER COUNTY GIVEN IMPRESSIVE PARAMETERS. AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF PORTER...WHICH COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. RC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 My feeling right now is something like 12" in LaPorte and 5" in Valpo. Seems like the band will produce nicely just east of mby then weaken too much by the time it shifts west to here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Friend of mine Near New Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Very much FWIW, but here's the 12z 4km NAM total run QPF for parts of SW lower MI and northern IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I've been surprised by how consistently low the QPF output on the mesoscale models has been as well. I remember there being something like a 1.5" signal before the Jan 2014 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I've been surprised by how consistently low the QPF output on the mesoscale models has been as well. I remember there being something like a 1.5" signal before the Jan 2014 event. Do you remember which model? I think the IWX WRF was too low with amounts and playing catchup but can't remember the others. In this case though, we're not really seeing any mesoscale model going nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Couple maps of Lake Michigan water temperatures. Some differences, but either way, looking at delta Ts of 25C or greater at peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Winter storm warning, Grand Rapids metro area and the west side of MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Gonna be interesting to see what flake size is like. With the really cold airmass and strong winds early on, hard to be optimistic in that regard. I'm curious if there will be enough low level temperature modification within the band to allow for better dendrite survival to the ground, especially once winds slacken, as models have 925 mb temps flirting with the edge of the favorable dendritic growth temp (around -18C) in the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Winter storm warning, Grand Rapids metro area and the west side of MI. It's more like a low grade blizzard.... Not much snow, just really cold temps and occasionally low visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 .4" final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 .4" final call I wouldn't be surprised to see more than that around there, but amounts should still remain relatively light. Flow is really weakening by that time but you're probably in as good a spot as any on the IL side being so close to the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 0z IWX WRF looks better initially. It has more action from the secondary feeder band earlier Saturday night for Porter County than past runs had, but the end result in QPF isn't any different. Still about 0.3" at VPZ, 0.4" along the lake shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I posted this over in the banter thread, but despite its inherent whininess it also contains some interesting stats, so what the heck... Valparaiso has had lake-effect events that produced at least 10 inches of snow in (at least) December 2004, February 2008, November 2008, February 2009, December 2010, and January 2011, this not including any synoptic-scale systems that happened to produce significant lake enhancement. Since I arrived in the fall of 2011, there have been precisely zero. Barring some fantastic model bust tomorrow night, or some other unforeseen event in the roughly ten days we have left in the season, my class will be the first since *at least* the class of 2004 to go all four years without a big lake-effect event. And I only looked even semi-exhaustively back to 2007. This record could easily go back into the 1990s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I posted this over in the banter thread, but despite its inherent whininess it also contains some interesting stats, so what the heck... Valparaiso has had lake-effect events that produced at least 10 inches of snow in (at least) December 2004, February 2008, November 2008, February 2009, December 2010, and January 2011, this not including any synoptic-scale systems that happened to produce significant lake enhancement. Since I arrived in the fall of 2011, there have been precisely zero. Barring some fantastic model bust tomorrow night, or some other unforeseen event in the roughly ten days we have left in the season, my class will be the first since *at least* the class of 2004 to go all four years without a big lake-effect event. And I only looked even semi-exhaustively back to 2007. This record could easily go back into the 1990s. How much fell there in February 2012? I recall we had 10"+ reports from Porter County. Despite the impressive instability parameters, I think some of the aspects that are likely to keep this event in check relatively speaking have been mentioned already, strong winds and airmass almost too cold for good flake size. In addition, equilibrium levels are great, but inversion heights are only progged to be 5 to 7kft, so not quite what you'd want for widespread 1'+ amounts. I still think some spots, probably in LaPorte or Berrien, could tag ~8-9". The 12z run of the national ARW also had some decent qpf into Porter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 How much fell there in February 2012? I recall we had 10"+ reports from Porter County. Despite the impressive instability parameters, I think some of the aspects that are likely to keep this event in check relatively speaking have been mentioned already, strong winds and airmass almost too cold for good flake size. In addition, equilibrium levels are great, but inversion heights are only progged to be 5 to 7kft, so not quite what you'd want for widespread 1'+ amounts. I still think some spots, probably in LaPorte or Berrien, could tag ~8-9". The 12z run of the national ARW also had some decent qpf into Porter. I think 5.5" got reported here, including around 1" of Clipper snow, though my own measurements came up short of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 LOT with 1-2 in my point…seems bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Lake enhanced frontal passage in Howell, Mi: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Radar looks really unimpressive. Just some pretty light snow showers coming off the lake. Even the main band doesn't look that impressive on GRR's radar. I mean it's probably still 1-2"/hr out there but nothing dramatic. The latest HRRR doesn't even get us to a tenth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Radar looks really unimpressive. Just some pretty light snow showers coming off the lake. Even the main band doesn't look that impressive on GRR's radar. I mean it's probably still 1-2"/hr out there but nothing dramatic. The latest HRRR doesn't even get us to a tenth. Best window for better organization has been later this evening into the overnight as the flow starts to relax a bit and the fetch becomes parallel to the long axis, so we'll see, but inversion starts lowering by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 IWX pulled the trigger on a blizzard warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 324 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 INZ003>005-MIZ077-078-150430- /O.CAN.KIWX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150215T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KIWX.BZ.W.0001.150214T2024Z-150215T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KIWX.WS.W.0006.150215T0300Z-150215T1200Z/ LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-BERRIEN-CASS MI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN... NAPPANEE...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN... DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS 324 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 /224 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015/ ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * TIMING...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCHES. DUE TO THE NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...EXACT TOTALS MAY VARY SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS SET UP. * BLOWING SNOW...SNOWFALL WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS TODAY...DIMINISHING TONIGHT...WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. EVEN LOCATIONS WHICH DO NOT RECEIVE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE PERIODIC WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. * DANGEROUS COLD...WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 10 BELOW AND 20 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IMPACTS... * VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. * STRONG WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN SOME POWER OUTAGES. * BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS MAY LEAD TO FROST BITE IN 30 MINUTES OR LESS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 HRRR simulated reflectivity has the band entirely offshore by 8z. That would be a turn of events. Edit: composite reflectivity doesn't, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 My sister (west east of South Haven) texted me a picture ... WHITEOUT ... they are getting great LES today!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 My sister (west of South Haven) texted me a picture ... WHITEOUT ... they are getting great LES today!! Heading out there tomorrow... we canceled work, perfect day to sled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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