Hoosier Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Too early to go too deep into details for the weekend, but some general consistency emerging in the models as far as the evolution of the expected LES band off of southern Lake Michigan. What starts out as a setup favoring the eastern side of the lake should transition toward one that favors NW IN and eventually may try to work toward the IL/WI shore as steering layer winds take on some easterly component. Thermodynamics slowly degrade on Sunday, but delta Ts and inversion heights look pretty good for much of the day and I suspect we may see a robust band for much of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Too early to go too deep into details for the weekend, but some general consistency emerging in the models as far as the evolution of the expected LES band off of southern Lake Michigan. What starts out as a setup favoring the eastern side of the lake should transition toward one that favors NW IN and eventually may try to work toward the IL/WI shore as steering layer winds take on some easterly component. Thermodynamics slowly degrade on Sunday, but delta Ts and inversion heights look pretty good for much of the day and I suspect we may see a robust band for much of the day. Several model cycles in a row on the globals have even portrayed a mesolow over southern Lake Michigan on Sunday. Pretty impressive that lower resolution guidance is in good agreement on that, and it argues for maintenance of the band, and as you mentioned the steering layer winds becoming more easterly as it is. Do you recall what soundings were indicating for inversion heights for the Jan 20-21 2014 event as compared to what models are showing this weekend? Since I'm off this weekend, if there's a powerhouse band close enough to here well into Sunday, I may try to chase it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Several model cycles in a row on the globals have even portrayed a mesolow over southern Lake Michigan on Sunday. Pretty impressive that lower resolution guidance is in good agreement on that, and it argues for maintenance of the band, and as you mentioned the steering layer winds becoming more easterly as it is. Do you recall what soundings were indicating for inversion heights for the Jan 20-21 2014 event as compared to what models are showing this weekend? Since I'm off this weekend, if there's a powerhouse band close enough to here well into Sunday, I may try to chase it. I want to say at least 10,000 feet for the Jan 2014 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Tonight into tomorrow looks to be one of those special times where we cash in on LES on this way. This occurs down here 2-3 times a year when trajectories and flow are just right. Hoping to see 2-3" when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Tonight into tomorrow looks to be one of those special times where we cash in on LES on this way. This occurs down here 2-3 times a year when trajectories and flow are just right. Hoping to see 2-3" when all is said and done. Good luck to you on this one. IND is thinking possibly up to an inch for me way down here ne of Indpls. Really hoping to see my cousin get a huge lake effect in Highland IN later this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The 12z GFS shifted back east a lot for the weekend event. We finally get the band on us after 12z Sun but it's weakening a lot by that point. Let's see what the rest of the suite does. Still open to getting a motel in MGC or PPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z GEM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z GEM.. cmc_snow_acc_chicago_19.png I realize that includes the first LES event but still impressive signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I realize that includes the first LES event but still impressive signal. Yeah and at 10:1 ratios so could maybe even double that if you get a long lasting heavy band with the second event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 For the weekend event, most favorable timeframe at this point looks like Saturday evening into Sunday morning as this is when inversion heights and delta Ts are most favorable and also won't have any diurnal influences to potentially interfere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm interested in the flake quality tomorrow. Pretty strong ascent showing up within the DGZ and extending above it as well. If anything looks better compared to this weekend's setup it might be this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The 12z GFS shifted back east a lot for the weekend event. We finally get the band on us after 12z Sun but it's weakening a lot by that point. Let's see what the rest of the suite does. Still open to getting a motel in MGC or PPO. Euro seems more favorable for Valpo. It'll be nice when this gets into hi-res range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I love lake Michigan les. Can't wait to see that band going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro seems more favorable for Valpo. It'll be nice when this gets into hi-res range. Yeah it does. Going off just the surface wind field, the axis of convergence/mesolow sits on us for about 6-9 hours Saturday night-Sunday morning. Our LES-loving prof here is actually feeling bearish about the weekend, so that has me concerned. Not to mention I still have PTSD from Jan 2014, and telling clients we forecasted for to expect 6-12" and ending up with 0.2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah it does. Going off just the surface wind field, the axis of convergence/mesolow sits on us for about 6-9 hours Saturday night-Sunday morning. Our LES-loving prof here is actually feeling bearish about the weekend, so that has me concerned. Not to mention I still have PTSD from Jan 2014, and telling clients we forecasted for to expect 6-12" and ending up with 0.2". What's his concern? Location? Flake size? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 What's his concern? Location? Flake size? Location. Seems to think it'll get hung up in LaPorte County. Which is not at all unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Could rip pretty good for a while in Valpo tomorrow. LOT calling for up to 6" in northeast Porter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Could rip pretty good for a while in Valpo tomorrow. LOT calling for up to 6" in northeast Porter.In my AFD, mentioned our local 8km ARW model. Similar to its 12z run, the 18z run parked the band over Porter County into tomorrow afternoon due to mesolow/stalled out convergence axis. Amounts I forecasted would be underdone if that occurs. 18z NAM wasn't that bullish, but convergence and omega parameters I use for LE still suggest it could rip pretty good in at least northeast Porter starting around 9z tonight. My confidence wasn't too high on snow amounts, and it usually isnt with lake effect setups in our NW IN counties, because of the variance in the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Gino just texted me that one of the 00z Hop WRF members nails NE Porter and NW LaPorte with about a foot of snow tonight into tomorrow. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The HRRR is looking nice for us now. Anyone know if its liquid is good in LES events? It has some precip in Porter for about 6 hours and a well-formed band for 2 or 3 of those hours, and only drops about 0.10" which seems low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Also, the IWX WRF took its first crack at the Saturday night event on tonight's 0z run. Looks like it has a well-formed band moving into Porter County at 11z Sunday. Also, we have 6.5" on the ground still if that matters to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z GGEM looked really nice for mby, looks like the band is hanging around Porter County from about 6z-18z Sunday. I'd be most appreciative of a weenie accumulation map. And the 0z Euro is consistent as well, and come to think of it matches the GGEM rather nicely, with a broader area of snow at 6z (though best convergence into Berrien and LaPorte Counties), and then the band/mesolow sitting right on top of us at 9z and 12z before finally shifting west into Lake County by 15z. Even given the transient nature of the band, the really impressive lake parameters should allow for several inches here Sunday morning with either solution. The GFS is still kinda meh. Gives the best totals to LaPorte though we'd probably still squeeze out a few inches midday Sunday as the weakening band pushes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Valpo down to a half mile in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Valpo down to a half mile in snow. We've been getting quality snow, if not legit 1/4SM, since 8:35 a.m. As of 9:50 a.m., just a paltry 0.6" though. Sure looks like more but I gotta go with what's on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 hopefully you have a nice few days here, dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We've been getting quality snow, if not legit 1/4SM, since 8:35 a.m. As of 9:50 a.m., just a paltry 0.6" though. Sure looks like more but I gotta go with what's on the board. I saw a 2" LSR from the university as of 9 AM. Too high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We've been getting quality snow, if not legit 1/4SM, since 8:35 a.m. As of 9:50 a.m., just a paltry 0.6" though. Sure looks like more but I gotta go with what's on the board. Not too abnormal. In my years at MTU we would have these lower visibility snows after some of the arctic front would come through but didn't seem to add up all that much considering the visibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 LOT upgraded Porter county to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1055 AM CST THU FEB 12 2015 UPDATE 1055 AM CST BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WITH THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW...HAVE UPGRADED PORTER COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS INDICATE THAT CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH WESTERN MOST LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL REMAIN STRONG AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INVERSION HEIGHTS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE COMING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTING AT LEAST 1 TO 2 HOURS MORE OF UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES BASED ON KLOT AND TMDW SHOWING STEADY STREAM OF 25 TO AS MUCH AS 30 DBZ ECHOES. EXPECTING RATES MORE ON THE ORDER OF HALF INCH PER HOUR...LOCALLY HIGHER...THIS AFTERNOON. HAD ALREADY RECEIVED MEASURED REPORT FROM VALPARAISO UNIVERSITY OF 2 INCHES AT 9AM...WITH UNIVERSITY WEBCAM SHOWING HEAVY SNOW/LOW VSBY SINCE THEN. ALSO...KVPZ HAS BEEN REPORTING 1/4 SM +SN FOR ABOUT AN HOUR NOW. WITH REPORTS ALSO OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR WHITE OUTS AT TIMES...CONCERNED WITH VERY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS...PARTICULARLY I-80/I-94 AND ON US 12. WITH EXPECTATION NOW OF LONGER DURATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL...FELT IT PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. HAVE BUMPED UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO UP TO 5 TO 8 INCHES MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A PORTAGE TO KOUTS LINE...BUT AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH LAKE EFFECT...THERE WILL BE VARIABILITY IN OBSERVED AMOUNTS. RC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 As far as the weekend, I'm thinking 6-12" for parts of Porter, LaPorte, St. Joseph, Berrien is a good starting point...and possibly Lake county IN as well depending on how long it takes the band to move in there. Could be higher amounts somewhere, especially if the band stalls out longer than expected, but too early to tell. Progged veering of low level flow to a greater extent than today should eventually allow the band to make it farther west. Although thermodynamics become less favorable with time on Sunday, I'd also keep an eye on this farther west in Lake county IN and even near the IL/WI shore, as the wind regime also becomes light and sometimes you can get a surprise right near the shore when that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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