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Lake Effect Snow Belts Discussion Thread

TugHillMatt

By TugHillMatt,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted

Hey, fellow Michiganders! Who is ready to watch the lake effect snow potential unfold here? The models are looking pretty good for us to get plenty of snow off Lake Michigan here in West Michigan over the next week to two weeks. It appears the winds will be shifting back and forth, allowing many areas to cash in.

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Powerball

Powerball

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Hey, fellow Michiganders! Who is ready to watch the lake effect snow potential unfold here? The models are looking pretty good for us to get plenty of snow off Lake Michigan here in West Michigan over the next week to two weeks. It appears the winds will be shifting back and forth, allowing many areas to cash in.

 

The only question will be the moisture depths.

 

With the air getting increasingly drier aloft after Thursday, it's going to be harder to sustain significant LES outside of areas near the lakeshore...

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

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The only question will be the moisture depths.

 

With the air getting increasingly drier aloft after Thursday, it's going to be harder to sustain significant LES outside of areas near the lakeshore...

Yeah, but there are also going to be a couple surface troughs moving through. The one on Thursday, and then another over the weekend. So, there will be some dynamics in the mix as well.

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flyfisher7

flyfisher7

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I wonder with the relative warm and open water if some of these bands have potential to extend over to the eastern side? I usually get lucky a couple few times a year with LES imby. Sometimes the band likes to setup right over Howell. Not anything burying, but a couple inches on occasion.

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Whitelakeroy

Whitelakeroy

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I wonder with the relative warm and open water if some of these bands have potential to extend over to the eastern side? I usually get lucky a couple few times a year with LES imby. Sometimes the band likes to setup right over Howell. Not anything burying, but a couple inches on occasion.

Later in the week yes we should be able to get some of them. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

Buffalo NWS seems quite high on the coming LES as well. Two specific timeframes are mentioned.

 

Thurs-Friday Morning

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF LAKE ERIE LATER THIS WEEKAS MUCH COLDER AIR ENTERS THE REGION. INITIALLY THE LAKE EFFECTSNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED LATER THURSDAYTHROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND PRODUCE MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS INNARROW BANDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THECHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

Sunday Evening-Early next week

 

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN BRING A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A FRESH BATCH OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALL LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT THAN THIS WEEK. THE POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ALSO
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG FETCH WEST OR EVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW.
STAY TUNED.

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

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I picked up between 6 and 8 inches of snow at my house this morning! It was wonderful going on my morning snow walk again. :)

 

I work 40 minutes east just north of Grand Rapids and there is nothing at my job. It was so odd as I rode with my carpool buddy...to see it go from complete winter to blah November. I'm thinking I'll have to shovel my car out tonight at the carpool lot.

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Gilbertfly

Gilbertfly

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^^^ nice!

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

VALID 12Z SUN NOV 16 2014 - 12Z THU NOV 20 2014


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A VERY PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOCAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOWFALL EVENTS WILL
PREVAIL AT VARIOUS TIMES ACROSS ALL 5 GREAT LAKES. WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ALREADY PRESENT...HARD TO IMAGINE HOW MUCH MORE
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE...PROLIFIC? NUMBERS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOMALOUS?
CERTAINLY. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE COLD AIR...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND RELENTLESS CYCLONIC FLOW (THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PARAMETERS
IN PLACE) THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY 4-7 PERIOD TO GIVE EACH LAKE
AND THEIR SHORELINES THE THREAT OF UNUSUALLY-HIGH AMOUNTS OF
ACCUMULATION. OBVIOUSLY...THE SHORT-TERM WIND DIRECTION WILL PLAY
A CRITICAL ROLE. THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY AND INTENSITY OF LAKE-EFFECT DOWNSTREAM---WITH FAVORED
WINDWARD SLOPES AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC FEATURES PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FLOW...BEARING THE BRUNT OF THE LAKE-EFFECT PROCESS.

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WestMichigan

WestMichigan

Posted
Posted

I picked up between 6 and 8 inches of snow at my house this morning! It was wonderful going on my morning snow walk again. :)

 

I work 40 minutes east just north of Grand Rapids and there is nothing at my job. It was so odd as I rode with my carpool buddy...to see it go from complete winter to blah November. I'm thinking I'll have to shovel my car out tonight at the carpool lot.

Based on what my wife said, sounds like 6 or so, maybe a little more at my place also.  Here at work, maybe a couple of inches and I am closer to the lake where I work.  Nice diagonal band that went from the Muskegon area and on south of Grand Rapids.

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Harry

Harry

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Based on what my wife said, sounds like 6 or so, maybe a little more at my place also.  Here at work, maybe a couple of inches and I am closer to the lake where I work.  Nice diagonal band that went from the Muskegon area and on south of Grand Rapids.

 

You and blackrock should cash in well Saturday night and Sunday. WSW/SW lake enhanced events always seem to over perform. GRR already mentioning possible warnings being needed for it.

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

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I'm psyched! I have 10 inches on the ground, with maybe another foot this weekend! I'm glad I live a little more inland and a little higher up in elevation than Grand Haven and Spring Lake village. 5 minutes from my house and closer to the lake there is only 4 inches. I almost always get more than they do. I'm glad you got some snow to enjoy, Harry.

 

Did you guys see the most recent NWS map for this weekend?

 

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/gis/images/GL_Snow.png

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WestMichigan

WestMichigan

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I'm psyched! I have 10 inches on the ground, with maybe another foot this weekend! I'm glad I live a little more inland and a little higher up in elevation than Grand Haven and Spring Lake village. 5 minutes from my house and closer to the lake there is only 4 inches. I almost always get more than they do. I'm glad you got some snow to enjoy, Harry.

 

Did you guys see the most recent NWS map for this weekend?

 

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/gis/images/GL_Snow.png

That is a fat area of 8 - 12".  I had about 6" on the ground this morning, but it is all fluff and will compact down to almost nothing.  Not sure how much we picked up today.  Looking forward to this weekend.

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Harry

Harry

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This caught my attention..

 


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2014

THE COLD SNOWY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN TIMEFRAME OF CONCERN IS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A VERY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY A ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH SW LWR MI.
AS IS SOMETIMES THE CASE...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CORE OF THE
COLD AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. WHEN
THIS HAPPENS...WE/LL FREQUENTLY SEE A I-94 CONVERGENT BAND SET UP
AND DUMP QUITE A BIT OF SNOW FROM VAN BUREN COUNTY EAST TOWARD
JACKSON. OF COURSE ONE OF THE MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS IS THE TRAVEL
HAZARDS THAT WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP. H85 OMEGA SHOWS THE LOCATION OF
THE CONVERGENT BAND NICELY AS WELL AS THE SECONDARY BAND ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL BE A HEADLINE
EVENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOO SO WE SHOULD
SEE BLOWING AND DRIFTING ESPECIALLY ON NORTH-SOUTH ROADS. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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Yeah, Harry. It sounds like all of West Michigan will cash in very nicely this week.

 

How have the rest of you in Michigan fared so far in terms of the LES event we just finished?

Here outside of the belts we have had plenty of snow showers, but only spotty ones have dusted the ground. snowfall totals the last 3 days (Wed-Fri) at DTW were T, 0.5", T while imby it was T, 0.1", 0.2".

 

i suppose its possible that the models have been improving on LES (though I hate saying the words "models" and "improving" in the same sentence, it seems so wrong lol)...but the persistence and qpf they have shown this far out for a 94 band, at least out this way, is rare. Hopefully that means they are on to something.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
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KBuf is all in on this event. Looks like a possible historic one in the making.

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM ESTTHIS EVENING......LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA...AND CATTARAUGUS  COUNTIES. GREATEST AMOUNTS FOR THE ADVISORY ALONG THE LAKE ERIE  SHORE.* TIMING...ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WATCH FROM MONDAY  EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY THIS  EVENING. SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 1 TO 2 FEET OR MORE IN  PERSISTENT BANDS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES THIS EVENING.* IMPACTS...THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OCCASIONAL MODERATE LAKE  EFFECT SNOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR  VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY  FROM HAMBURG TO DUNKIRK AND THE 219 FROM ORCHARD PARK TO  SPRINGVILLE. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY  MAKE FOR VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES.
THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NW PENNSYLVANIA AND
SW NEW YORK…INCLUDING BUFFALO AND ERIE AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
OF NEW YORK EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALL COULD BE SEEING VERY HEAVY
SNOWFALL AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
 
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF WEDNESDAY`S CLIPPER SYSTEM...ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK. COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...THIS WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD RESULT IN A SECOND ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS EAST-NORTHEAST AND/OR EAST OF THE LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LAKE ONTARIO PERHAPS
HAVING THE MORE FAVORABLE SETUP DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
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