Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[MichaelJ]

Some will read everything as being negative and others will read it as a positive and it will change run to run, so the best policy IMO is go with what our red taggers are thinking and they really haven't changed much with their long range forecasts. Moral is don't panic, everything is still pretty much on schedule but pinning it down to an exact date is impossible for everyone

[tnweathernut]

That's all based on -AO, so based on what he said we are essentially going to go Dec/Jan with one week of a -AO. Need to post the analogs of 04-05 and 06-07.

Moral of the story is read less and look at pictures and animations more........haha

[wncsnow]

06-07 was an awful winter around here.. but as burger said, I don't think they really know whats going to happen after the first week of January.. lots of what ifs going into a volatile pattern.

[Cold Rain]

That's all based on -AO, so based on what he said we are essentially going to go Dec/Jan with one week of a -AO. Need to post the analogs of 04-05 and 06-07.

Aren't the models showing a PV split?

[mackerel_sky]

Aren't the models showing a PV split?

No

[packbacker]

I tend to agree somewhat. The mythical SSW event was 'supposed' to happen in mid-late Nov, early Dec, mid-Dec, late Dec, early Jan, and now it's been pushed to mid-Jan.

Yep, potentially back to back busts for the SCE/SAI, will reserve judgment until we get to Jan. Like you said, you read his last 3 blogs it goes from very positive to I don't know what or when anything is going to happen. Oh yeah, the nino is dying.

[Cold Rain]

In all fairness to Pack, these blogs indicate that Cohen seems a bit perplexed at how things are unfolding. We'll see....

[packbacker]

Aren't the models showing a PV split?

At different levels it was showing solid warming but at long lead times. My call now for this winter is 2-4" for RDU and that may be optimistic.

[Jon]

Also just reading the site there is a ton of "we don't really know" masked with a lot of "uncertainty but we think" type of language. I didn't walk away at all reading that and feeling negative. 

same here...I'm not seeing why one should need a cliff for that. Not sure Pack if you're looking for a reason not to believe the cold, which is fine, someone needs to play devils advocate, but when I see the kind of language burger pointed out it still remains uncertain...heck 10 days out, 7 days out is uncertain.

 

All you would have to do is read the Summary at the beginning and we already know that, and that summary is pretty dang good news.

[griteater]

Well this sucks...this whole SCE/SAI is pure crap. I am officially in the market for a cliff. If we don't get something between Dec 29 and Jan 5th then it's waiting till Feb.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

I think we need to wait and see how things play out (#3 on posting etiquette, lol), but yeah, I thought we would be seeing more signals for a stout -AO.  It hasn't been talked about much, but solar flux has been quite elevated over the past 2 months, and I wonder how much effect that is having.  The -AO/-QBO/Nino winters of 76-77, 86-87, and 09-10 were all during solar min conditions.  

That blog is really good though....excellent weekly breakdown on the parameters affecting the AO.

[buckeyefan1]

Yep, potentially back to back busts for the SCE/SAI, will reserve judgment until we get to Jan. Like you said, you read his last 3 blogs it goes from very positive to I don't know what or when anything is going to happen. Oh yeah, the nino is dying.

Imagine that        El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Basin

Warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies persist throughout most of the tropical Pacific, but the anomalies remain focused in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 regions (Figure 6). However, note that SST anomalies are also positive in the western tropical Pacific and towards Australia. This is very atypical for an ENSO event and further highlights that this event is weak and may actually be peaking now. Meanwhile, the positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) pattern holds firm in the North Pacific, which quite warm anomalies along the North American coast. These warm anomalies have likely contributed to the intensity of storms recently experienced along the West Coast, especially California.

[Jon]

At different levels it was showing solid warming but at long lead times. My call now for this winter is 2-4" for RDU and that may be optimistic.

ouch!!! That would be the bust of the century. Other than that article what in the super LR gives you that thought? Any other articles or analogs, etc? I'd like to know just for reference. I never knew about that link you just provided so anything is good.

[BullCityWx]

I think we need to wait and see how things play out (#3 on posting etiquette, lol), but yeah, I thought we would be seeing more signals for a stout -AO. It hasn't been talked about much, but solar flux has been quite elevated over the past 2 months, and I wonder how much effect that is having. The -AO/-QBO/Nino winters of 76-77, 86-87, and 09-10 were all during solar min conditions.

That blog is really good though....excellent weekly breakdown on the parameters affecting the AO.

Hailstorm's been pounding that solar thing for a while. He's onto something, IMO.

[RONALD B]

Aren't the models showing a PV split?

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/546086747374125059/photo/1

[packbacker]

I think we need to wait and see how things play out (#3 on posting etiquette, lol), but yeah, I thought we would be seeing more signals for a stout -AO.  It hasn't been talked about much, but solar flux has been quite elevated over the past 2 months, and I wonder how much effect that is having.  The -AO/-QBO/Nino winters of 76-77, 86-87, and 09-10 were all during solar min conditions.  

That blog is really good though....excellent weekly breakdown on the parameters affecting the AO.

 

 

Did you get the warm fuzzies about this winter reading his latest update?  

[Cold Rain]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/546086747374125059/photo/1

Sweet! On the other hand, I've seen a lot of twitterings so far about that and not much tangible to show for it.

[jburns]

With all the wild swings back and forth in the models, only one thing has become crystal clear to me.

 

 

BEARS HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA

[Jon]

Sweet! On the other hand, I've seen a lot of twitterings so far about that and not much tangible to show for it.

Delayed gratification my friend, one of the first lessons my mother taught me! lol

[griteater]

Did you get the warm fuzzies about this winter reading his latest update?  

 

I thought it was disappointing, but he's not the lone expert in the world on the strat polar vortex and the AO.  The optimism/pessimism by those who are knowledgeable on the subject changes on a weekly basis.  One thing we can say is that the strat PV is weaker than normal and nothing is screaming ++AO....but we aren't at a stage where we can go full on neg AO either, unfortunately.

[Cold Rain]

Delayed gratification my friend, one of the first lessons my mother taught me! lol

9 and a half months? Lol!

[superjames1992]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/546086747374125059/photo/1

Hr 360, though...

[buckeyefan1]

Did you get the warm fuzzies about this winter reading his latest update?  

No, but everything that was said in his update we have already been discussing, so this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone     

[packbacker]

ouch!!! That would be the bust of the century. Other than that article what in the super LR gives you that thought? Any other articles or analogs, etc? I'd like to know just for reference. I never knew about that link you just provided so anything is good.

A lot of the winter forecasts were based on the premise we would have a stout -AO because of this SCE/SAI (Cohen's work).  Well that has failed up to this point, the AO will go negative around the 27th, and based on the models it's short lived and Cohen's speculation.  Cohen himself says this...

 

Given this expectation, the AO may remain neutral or positive and then potentially trend negative in late January should a SSW actually occur. Therefore, the chances for cold air outbreaks for the US and Europe would increase again in late January.

 

Then you can look at analogs that had a dying weak/mod nino and neutral/+AO...04/05 and 06/07 pop up.  It's actually kind of funny, 06/07 was consistently showing up in CPC analogs for Dec too.

 

I think we will know by end of next week, if the models break the pattern down and show the AO going + then Jan may be toast.  I still think Feb will be OK, which is why 3-5" will hopefully verify.

[Cold Rain]

I thought it was disappointing, but he's not the lone expert in the world on the strat polar vortex and the AO. The optimism/pessimism by those who are knowledgeable on the subject changes on a weekly basis. One thing we can say is that the strat PV is weaker than normal and nothing is screaming ++AO....but we aren't at a stage where we can go full on neg AO either, unfortunately.

I *think* HM is thinking the strat vortex is going to get taken out. He's the one I give the most cred to with this stuff.

[packbacker]

I thought it was disappointing, but he's not the lone expert in the world on the strat polar vortex and the AO.  The optimism/pessimism by those who are knowledgeable on the subject changes on a weekly basis.  One thing we can say is that the strat PV is weaker than normal and nothing is screaming ++AO....but we aren't at a stage where we can go full on neg AO either, unfortunately.

 

Exactly what I thought too but not sure why this SCE/SAI thing gets so much coverage.

 

Edit:  Also, Cohen says this, which was kind of shocking, this is his baby, I would think he would be resident expert.

 

The stratospheric polar vortex looks to remain fairly intact and perhaps slightly stronger than normal through the next two weeks.

[Cold Rain]

By the way, if solar flux is the reason why we get screwed (if we get screwed), then that's the only thing I'm gonna look at from now on. Even though flux is peaking now, it's still pretty low, by solar cycle standards, right?

[griteater]

Yep, potentially back to back busts for the SCE/SAI, will reserve judgment until we get to Jan. Like you said, you read his last 3 blogs it goes from very positive to I don't know what or when anything is going to happen. Oh yeah, the nino is dying.

 

I disagree on the SAI for last year.  It wasn't perfect, but by my estimation the SAI called for a slightly to moderately positive AO last winter.  The DJFM AO last winter was +0.4.  The DJF AO was +0.2.  The OPI on the other hand did bust badly.

 

On nino, the 3.4 SST on Trop Tidbits have climbed recently to +0.9...and PDO is strongly positive.  On the other hand, the WSI Nino index has fallen...lot of complexity there.

[griteater]

By the way, if solar flux is the reason why we get screwed (if we get screwed), then that's the only thing I'm gonna look at from now on. Even though flux is peaking now, it's still pretty low, by solar cycle standards, right?

 

Just going on solar flux alone, we are right on the edge, or into, what is considered solar max conditions over the past 2-3 months.  Solar Flux has to be used in conjunction with the QBO though.  Solar max with a +QBO is good for SSW's.

[griteater]

I *think* HM is thinking the strat vortex is going to get taken out. He's the one I give the most cred to with this stuff.

 

HM and Ed O'Toole who replies on HM's twitter feed are both very strong on the subject

[deltadog03]

Tue

 

Wed