Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[GaWx]

Why is there so much worry about the possibility that at least a part of early Dec. MAY be mild? Why is that so important in the grand scheme of things? Has anyone actually found a significant correlation between a mild early Dec. and a non-cold rest of winter? After such a cold November, isn't it almost expected to get a break from the extreme cold? 1939-40 was that way after a warm Oct. and then a cool Nov. It didn't get really cold "to stay" til ~12/20. After that, history was to be made.

 Also, we're in the midst of a great November from a wintry point of view? Can't people just enjoy the present and not be so worried all of the time?

[NCSNOW]

Mets vs. Models

 

That's one ugly map, Pack.  Looks like you warministas won this round![/quote

Check back on this map 10 days from now and you'll be suprised what it looks like verse the verification of what's actually taken place. 10 days ago from today or espeacilly last week's actual observed weather the models where mostly out in left field. Course it doesn't mean they will be this time, but until they hit a dart on the dartboard, not necessarily the bulls eye from 10 days out I have 0 stock in them. Work from the pattern - in, using the models as tools to see if what they are saying makes sense.

[Brick Tamland]

Check back on this map 10 days from now and you'll be suprised what it looks like verse the verification of what's actually taken place. 10 days ago from today or espeacilly last week's actual observed weather the models where mostly out in left field. Course it doesn't mean they will be this time, but until they hit a dart on the dartboard, not necessarily the bulls eye from 10 days out I have 0 stock in them. Work from the pattern - in, using the models as tools to see if what they are saying makes sense.

 

The models can just as easy back off on the warm up as we get closer. Don't forget what others have said about the pattern vs. what the models show now. 

[LithiaWx]

There are some really good and some really, really bad posts showing up in this thread.  The models are wrong is one of the worst arguments ever.

[RONALD B]

There are some really good and some really, really bad posts showing up in this thread.  The models are wrong is one of the worst arguments ever.

Oh yeah they been so great in the long run . no the euro don't have west coast baise an yes the op out does the ensembels all the time lol .

[LithiaWx]

Oh yeah they been so great in the long run . no the euro don't have west coast baise an yes the op out does the ensembels all the time lol .

 

what?

[burgertime]

The 12z Euro has a big snowstorm day 10…....for the mid-west.  Big west coast trough and big old east coast ridge, which will be a reoccurring theme this winter, LOL…Just kidding…hopefully!  

 

Edit:  Gotta love the big +NAO!  

 

 

 

 

Yep totally moved away from a more favorable look at the very end compared to the last couple of runs. GFS was also in that camp. I'm with everyone else, won't be shocked at a seasonal or slightly above early Dec. I still stick by though that I'm getting dejavu from last year with the way the models are putting things out. 

[burgertime]

what?

 

I don't even think he understands what he just said. 

[Brick Tamland]

There are some really good and some really, really bad posts showing up in this thread.  The models are wrong is one of the worst arguments ever.

 

You can say the same about saying the models are right all the time, too. Others think the models are not seeing the pattern right. 

[RONALD B]

You can say the same about saying the models are right all the time, too. Others think the models are not seeing the pattern right. 

i  agree brick show me a agreement from the euro ensembles  then we could be talking ?

[GaWx]

The 12z Euro has a big snowstorm day 10…....for the mid-west.  Big west coast trough and big old east coast ridge, which will be a reoccurring theme this winter, LOL…Just kidding…hopefully!  

 

Edit:  Gotta love the big +NAO!  

 

Pack,

 Who cares about a big +NAO on 11/28? Does that mean we're going to have a warm winter? If so, please show me the data. By the way, November of 1939, a great analog for 2014, had a monthlong big +NAO. Then DJF went strongly -NAO/-AO and the rest was history.

[mackerel_sky]

I have had snow on the ground, high temps in the 30s , lows in the teens , after tonight, very impressive for November ! I've had alot of winters with none of the 3 things listed above!! It can be 70 for the rest of the winter and I could care less, I can play more basketball in that kind of winter weather!

[LithiaWx]

You can say the same about saying the models are right all the time, too. Others think the models are not seeing the pattern right. 

 

Evidence is beginning to mount suggesting a benign winter pattern for a few weeks.  It doesn't reflect on the rest of our season but to constantly pretend that there aren't signals screaming that the SE shouldn't look for a snowstorm of any significance on the horizon is a bit silly.   What do you expect out of the next 2 weeks?

[metwannabe]

Evidence is beginning to mount suggesting a benign winter pattern for a few weeks. It doesn't reflect on the rest of our season but to constantly pretend that there aren't signals screaming that the SE shouldn't look for a snowstorm of any significance on the horizon is a bit silly. What do you expect out of the next 2 weeks?

Benign? An active pattern with cold shots and brief warm periods is far from benign. The ensembles have continued to cool in the LR over the past few runs with a constant hint at a west coast ridge. The evidence begining mount statement is not accurate . The " evidence " suggests an active active pattern

[Brick Tamland]

Evidence is beginning to mount suggesting a benign winter pattern for a few weeks.  It doesn't reflect on the rest of our season but to constantly pretend that there aren't signals screaming that the SE shouldn't look for a snowstorm of any significance on the horizon is a bit silly.   What do you expect out of the next 2 weeks?

 

No one said anything about a snowstorm. But others, including mets, have said the models don't always see the pattern right and back off on the warm up as we get closer.

[dsaur]

The GFS looks like monkey butt in the long range...pretty much past D10.  It's probably wrong...not for any particular reason other than it's often wrong at that lead.  If it's 204 hour depiction is in the ballpark of reality, there is a little room to work on some wintry precipitation around that time.  The southern stream wave doesn't look to produce much precip.  Also, there is high pressure back west.  There is some room between now and then for some positive trends...at least for the western areas.

Is that one of those psychedelic mandrills, or some nondescript gray primate?  Makes a difference in long range predictions, and I'm not surprising anyone in saying how the long ranges haven't exactly sizzled.  Thing I always feel is that winter weather can come any time it's cold, and raining, it doesn't choose months, or ground temps, of sun angles.  If it wants to snow, it just snows, no matter what a model, or monkey butt says about it....but, that said, a mandrill with those vivid stripes would presage more than some some run of the mill primate would.  Tbone

[packbacker]

Wow, things are testy, I was just simply posting what the start of Dec looks like, just for discussion.  To simply ignore the models is dumb and to simply accept models as the gospel is dumb too.  But this is a weather forum and just simply discussing what the best model in the world is showing.  I don't think its panic time at all, if we get into Jan and the models show this then that is something different.

[LithiaWx]

Benign? An active pattern with cold shots and brief warm periods is far from benign. The ensembles have continued to cool in the LR over the past few runs with a constant hint at a west coast ridge. The evidence begining mount statement is not accurate . The " evidence " suggests an active active pattern

 

I'm not going to get into an argument about the nitpicking and parsing of what a word means.  It's my opinion, you have one too.  We will see which ends up being closer to reality.

[GaWx]

Evidence is beginning to mount suggesting a benign winter pattern for a few weeks.  It doesn't reflect on the rest of our season but to constantly pretend that there aren't signals screaming that the SE shouldn't look for a snowstorm of any significance on the horizon is a bit silly.   What do you expect out of the next 2 weeks?

 

 I largely agree with Marietta here though nobody knows how benign it will actually get. Regardless, SE snowstorms in Dec., much less early Dec., aren't exactly common. While we're still very cold, I encourage cold weather lovers to enjoy what we now have and not be constantly worried.

[Brick Tamland]

I'm not going to get into an argument about the nitpicking and parsing of what a word means.  It's my opinion, you have one too.  We will see which ends up being closer to reality.

 

Just that you and some others always go with the most pessimistic route. It gets old. 

[packbacker]

Pack,

 Who cares about a big +NAO on 11/28? Does that mean we're going to have a warm winter? If so, please show me the data. By the way, November of 1939, a great analog for 2014, had a monthlong big +NAO. Then DJF went strongly -NAO/-AO and the rest was history.

 

Let's hope, we haven't had a -AO/-NAO since Dec 2010 and early Jan 2011 (4 years).

[LithiaWx]

Just that you and some others always go with the most pessimistic route. It gets old. 

 

I go with what outcome is the most logical to me, with the information I have in front of me.  I'm not going to sugar coat my opinions to make them sting less to folks who don't want to hear about how things don't look wintery.

[LithiaWx]

 I largely agree with Marietta here though nobody knows how benign it will actually get. Regardless, SE snowstorms in Dec., much less early Dec., aren't exactly common. While we're still very cold, I encourage cold weather lovers to enjoy what we now have and not be constantly worried.

 

Thank you Larry.  I have heard Nino winters can have an average/warm early Dec and not be a dumpster fire of a winter.  As your stats have shown along with some others losing a couple of weeks in December to a pattern not very favorable to snowstorms in the south means nothing regarding what happens in late December, January, and February. 

[Brick Tamland]

I go with what outcome is the most logical to me, with the information I have in front of me.  I'm not going to sugar coat my opinions to make them sting less to folks who don't want to hear about how things don't look wintery.

 

And we have already gone over why it goes against what all the mets and others on here have said about this winter. It's just pessimism for the sake of being pessimistic. I really don't get that. To me the overall tone of your posts are almost always so negative.

[RONALD B]

Just that you and some others always go with the most pessimistic route. It gets old. 

 I agree brick there's also strat warming in the models that all met's are keeping there eye on right now, if true the pv should break down going into dec ?

[LithiaWx]

And we have already gone over why it goes against what all the mets and others on here have said about this winter. It's just pessimism for the sake of being pessimistic. I really don't get that. 

 

Do you understand that the winter can have non-epic periods in it and still come out colder and snowier than the normal?  You seem to be trying to merge what happens in the next few weeks to what our winter ends up looking like.

[Isopycnic]

Just that you and some others always go with the most pessimistic route. It gets old. 

Not everyone is an overenthusiastic BrickWeenie,

[Brick Tamland]

Do you understand that the winter can have non-epic periods in it and still come out colder and snowier than the normal?  You seem to be trying to merge what happens in the next few weeks to what our winter ends up looking like.

 

I do, but it just seems your posts are almost always in a negative tone. And we don't even know for sure what the next two weeks will end up like. Not looking for a snow storm, but others have said the models might not be seeing the pattern right, and this warm up will be brief. 

[nchighcountrywx]

Interesting map shared courtesy of Brad Panovich

[Brick Tamland]

Not everyone is an overenthusiastic BrickWeenie,

 

I don't think it's being a weenie to be optimistic about things when you factor in what most mets have been saying about the upcoming winter. 

 

Anyway, it's gotten off topic. Sorry for the derailment.