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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

I Actually like the D8-10 on the EURO, yes its NOT overwhelmingly cold, but there is cold air nearby and could be fun and games 

I agree, could be a situation where the second cutter goes up and the front never clears the area.  With cold air pressing in and an old frontal boundry............... wouldn't take much at all to have an overrunning situation set up pretty quickly for someone in the southeast.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Where did you get these? I can only get the 12/18 run off of the CPC site here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/analog.php

 

Jon - those are from the CPC's forecasters, which they issue each day around 3PM (labeled as "MAN FCST")...I like those because they are based off a multi-model op and ensemble blend (GFS, GEM, and Euro Ens...and maybe others), as deemed by the forecaster.

 

The ones I posted are from the super ensemble mean (I believe the super ensemble is based off several runs of the GFS Ensemble, but not sure)...these come out in the morning.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/sfc_count_sup814_prec.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=8

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=11

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Jon - those are from the CPC's forecasters, which they issue each day around 3PM (labeled as "MAN FCST")...I like those because they are based off a multi-model op and ensemble blend (GFS, GEM, and Euro Ens...and maybe others), as deemed by the forecaster.

The ones I posted are from the super ensemble mean (I believe the super ensemble is based off several runs of the GFS Ensemble, but not sure)...these come out in the morning.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/sfc_count_sup814_prec.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=8

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=11

Oh wow didn't even notice haha thank you Grit
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Batman

Batman

Posted
Posted

This is the analog 500mb pattern - full conus bowl trough

 

213kmkp.gif

Thanks for posting Grit! That is the potential broad trough scenario I was thinking about as what the models and indices might be hinting at. Hope it verifies! Some of those analog dates had major cold and some had major snows with them. Got stranded in a snowstorm coming home from college during that period in 89. Would gladly take a repeat here in the SE!

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Thanks for posting Grit! That is the potential broad trough scenario I was thinking about as what the models and indices might be hinting at. Hope it verifies! Some of those analog dates had major cold and some had major snows with them. Got stranded in a snowstorm coming home from college during that period in 89. Would gladly take a repeat here in the SE!

 

No problem.  12z Euro ensemble in the extended gives slightly more troughing in the east / slightly colder (from previous run)...splitting hairs really.  No doubt that the GFS Ens is colder, and IMO, offers more wintry potential.  Of course, all of this is still way out there, and lots can change, especially with the big low early next week and how that affects everything.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

GFS 18z LR says, "I hope you like it cold in Texas". It's frigid everywhere but the SE. It does have a few threats but like Jeremy I don't like the bleeding cold from the west look.

The CIPS composite that Grit posted pretty much says the same. The blues are everywhere, yes, but the strongest signal is in the central part of the country, meaning a storm track over or west of the area...at least that's how I interpret that map. We're starting to see some agreement on that idea. How long it lasts is anyone's guess.

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

More big changes coming to your 7 day forecast. Details in your video forecast. Will have more detailed weather and talk about the pattern coming up for next weeks and looking ahead further from there. That should be up around 7:15 pm eastern. -Chris

Alright my Americanwx friends.....New videos are going up.  I will do a model one after the 6pm news over, before dinner.  Thanks everyone for the likes on my FB page!  Keep sharing and inviting your friends, if y'all don't mind.  :)

 

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

New model/trends/looking ahead video.  It is a little longer tonight, just a lot going on.  Hope y'all don't think its too long.  Sorry.  Y'all did get some shout outs.  I appreciate it everyone, y'all help me learn just as much as I might help y'all.  Thanks for liking my FB page, sharing it with your friends and inviting our friends on FB to like my page as well.  :)  Special shout outs to y'all!  Thanks again

 

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Well this sucks...this whole SCE/SAI is pure crap. I am officially in the market for a cliff. If we don't get something between Dec 29 and Jan 5th then it's waiting till Feb.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

Also just reading the site there is a ton of "we don't really know" masked with a lot of "uncertainty but we think" type of language. I didn't walk away at all reading that and feeling negative. 

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

Well this sucks...this whole SCE/SAI is pure crap. I am officially in the market for a cliff. If we don't get something between Dec 29 and Jan 5th then it's waiting till Feb.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Watching their animated presentation of possible temps shows numerous blasts of cold air through Jan and Feb......in waves of blue. Why do we need a cliff again?

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JoMo

JoMo

Posted
Posted

Well this sucks...this whole SCE/SAI is pure crap. I am officially in the market for a cliff. If we don't get something between Dec 29 and Jan 5th then it's waiting till Feb.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

I tend to agree somewhat. The mythical SSW event was 'supposed' to happen in mid-late Nov, early Dec, mid-Dec, late Dec, early Jan, and now it's been pushed to mid-Jan. 

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Watching their animated presentation of possible temps shows numerous blasts of cold air through Jan and Feb......in waves of blue. Why do we need a cliff again?

That's all based on -AO, so based on what he said we are essentially going to go Dec/Jan with one week of a -AO. Need to post the analogs of 04-05 and 06-07.

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