Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[Jon]

Coldest temp on that run in the next 16 days for CLT is 31.

you can find comfort in that the coldest mean temp is below 25 on both the 00z GEFS and 06 GEFS for KCLT

[deltadog03]

A -PNA might not be horrible if there is arctic air involved.  Means the country will see the cold SPREAD out vs just a sharp cold dump into the east.  IA -PNA to slightly +PNA will be better for storm chances.  YES, its not an overpowering cold shot, but do we really want a Cold NW flow the entire time that is dry as a bone?  I don't.  The cold is very close by, and it won't take much to get that in here with a storm.  

[Shawn]

When it comes to the pattern change, the OPS are becoming obviously even more useless.  A bit worrisome about the Euro EPS though.. the GEFS, GGEM have been pretty steady compared.  Not sure about any of this Christmas weather anymore lol.

[franklin NCwx]

A -PNA might not be horrible if there is arctic air involved. Means the country will see the cold SPREAD out vs just a sharp cold dump into the east. IA -PNA to slightly +PNA will be better for storm chances. YES, its not an overpowering cold shot, but do we really want a Cold NW flow the entire time that is dry as a bone? I don't. The cold is very close by, and it won't take much to get that in here with a storm.

this! And with a -epo/ao/nao there will be plenty of arctic air.

[franklin NCwx]

When it comes to the pattern change, the OPS are becoming obviously even more useless. A bit worrisome about the Euro EPS though.. the GEFS, GGEM have been pretty steady compared. Not sure about any of this Christmas weather anymore lol.

I usually always go with the eps buy they have been pretty bad for the last week.

[griteater]

HM likes it for at least portions of the east

 

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/545981676766392320

[metwannabe]

this! And with a -epo/ao/nao there will be plenty of arctic air.

Yep the EPO drove the pattern last year

[max100]

12z GFS is miserable........

[Shawn]

I usually always go with the eps buy they have been pretty bad for the last week.

 

Lets just hope they aren't eventually right. (total weenie comment).

 

I've been looking over the EPS individual members for the past week and none of them have really showed any snow on their output.  Usually, you have at least one or two with trace amounts around KCAE, GSP, ATL, but really nothing so far...they're really just plain warm.

 

Not always the best thing for 51 "model runs" to be so content on no Winter down this way.

 

Edit, talking about the Deep South.. some parts of NC, NE GA had some pretty good runs at times.

[pcbjr]

12z GFS is miserable........

 

looks that way ....

 

let's just hope the ens is better than the op ...

[tnweathernut]

To my untrained eye, that would be a west based -NAO correct?

The maps you can find from the State Climate Office of NC will help you visualize a -NAO (east vs. west). It will also help you better understand the AO too. Hope this helps!

 

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html

[tnweathernut]

HM likes it for at least portions of the east

 

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/545981676766392320

I guess I don't understand the negativity. It's a very good "look" at 500 for a bunch of people on this forum.  

 

Let's see what the ensembles say, but I'd take this OP look around hour 204-240 all day long (and twice on Sunday) if I lived in the southeast.  

[Jon]

Update on the PNA...in a last teleconnecitons or pattern post I mentioned it was going to go negative just not sure how long, well it appears most models are figuring it out now and that it will head neutral somewhere after the 26th and back positive by Jan. So to mean, it doesn't appear we'll be locked into a -PNA pattern. With the -EPO pretty much a lock, and a -AO, as well as a -NAO, I'm not sure that's ever happened at least since I've been following weather for the past 6 years. Maybe it has, but I'm loving it for January. The Euro Weeklies are simply wrong showing that torch, I expect a complete flip come Tuesday.

 

Also, didn't include GEFS as Southern Track already spoke on them (plus they're buggy on WxBell )

 

GFS PARA (regular GFS looks the exact same)

 

EURO 00z step in the right direction

 

EURO 00z EPS Mean is telling

[tnweathernut]

WxSouth Tweets

 

"several waves in pipeline from Hawaii - Baja - Cali - through South if this type of flow develops"

 

and

 

"Return of Western Ridge induces southern split jet 300hr and beyond.

[Southern Track]

Awesome stuff Jon! Thanks.

[griteater]

wow at superensemble analog temps (for Day 8-14)

 

 

[tnweathernut]

wow at superensemble analog temps (for Day 8-14)

 

 

wow is right.  I don't know how you can't be at least a little excited seeing stuff like that.  Nice post.

[franklin NCwx]

That's frigid and stormy! I like it.

[NC_hailstorm]

GFS was horrific forecasting the MJO.

Two weeks ago it had phase 7-8-1 coming up,nope never made it.Went COD after 6 and its coming out in 3 today.ECMWF was far better going COD and coming out in 4.

 

ECMWF still has it moving up toward 5 and 6.

[Wow]

LR looks good to me. I'll take it.

[Shawn]

wow at superensemble analog temps (for Day 8-14)

 

 

 

 

 

Isn't this even showing the core of the cold in the West/Plains?  Maybe bleeds over also?

[griteater]

Isn't this even showing the core of the cold in the West/Plains?  Maybe bleeds over also?

 

This is the analog 500mb pattern - full conus bowl trough

 

[Shawn]

This is the analog 500mb pattern - full conus bowl trough

 

 

Oh neat!  Thanks.  Not a bad look at all.

[packbacker]

LR looks good to me. I'll take it.

 

Agreed, I am not sure what I would change when looking at the GEFS from days 10+, except get it closer.  I thought yesterdays GEFS were good, but todays 12z GEFS is even better

[Brick Tamland]

Agreed, I am not sure what I would change when looking at the GEFS from days 10+, except get it closer.  I thought yesterdays GEFS were good, but todays 12z GEFS is even better

 

We just need to get a legit threat inside 10 days, and all will be right.

[packbacker]

We just need to get a legit threat inside 10 days, and all will be right.

 

Yep, will get there...the GEFS is also wet/active for the SE days 10+.  Everywhere NW of TX/TN is dry.

[packbacker]

This is the analog 500mb pattern - full conus bowl trough

 

 

Interesting 89 keeps showing up which had the huge+ snow storm for eastern NC/SC.  I think ILM got over 20".   I am sure there are some other hits in there.

[superjames1992]

Interesting 89 keeps showing up which had the huge+ snow storm for eastern NC/SC.  I think ILM got over 20".   I am sure there are some other hits in there.

 

12/13/05 would correspond with this ice storm a couple days later:

 

 

Was that the infamous Larry Cosgrove ice storm that I've heard about?

[deltadog03]

EURO VERY close to the 0z run, in fact, it maybe turning more NEG tilt quicker through 00z WED.  IF** we don't get convectively robbed from the GOM, we should have a nice SVR threat AL, GA, FL This run doesn't look to do it as bad, but I think its going to happen..There looks to be a nice WIND presences for sure.  

[deltadog03]

The H5 look at hour 120, well...its a thing of beauty IMO.