Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[griteater]

The daily NAO index has been above zero every day since Nov 20th

 

[griteater]

Here it is for Dec alone.  Gulf of Alaska Low / +NAO combo bringing the above normal temps across the country

 

 

[deltadog03]

Not to get anyone's hopes up, but does the energy look further west that is digging down through the rockies by hr 90??

[deltadog03]

Ummmmmm. that energy is digging hardcore south through the rockies!!  much further SW from the 12z run!!!

[deltadog03]

Trof looks sharper, and a bit deeper.  Might be some thunder threat evolving with this one?

[WxBlue]

Trof looks sharper, and a bit deeper.  Might be some thunder threat evolving with this one?

 

It appears there's more energy in Texas/Oklahoma on December 23rd than 18z run on GFS. We'll see where all of that go.

[deltadog03]

I would say if we dont' get cut off by GOM convection, could be stormy across the SE for NExt TUE/WED

[deltadog03]

ummm...ya, that would be a DREAM run right there.  Multiple threats on that for sure. 

[superjames1992]

I have to say that I'm feeling a little better now that we've got fantasy storms showing up in the sub-300 hr range.

[deltadog03]

agreed!  Lets all await dr. no to say no..hahah

[Marion_NC_WX]

Don't know about you guys but I'm gonna quit forecasting (or even look) anything until the GFS gets back on its meds...tonight's 0z run made strong cyclogenesis a dime a dozen...

 

Anything and everything that had low pressure went well under 1000mb on the charts pre-truncation.

[deltadog03]

euro looks like its trying to drop the energy into the rockies and SSE at hour 96.  big change from 12z run..JUST like the GFS did on the 00z run.

[WxBlue]

euro looks like its trying to drop the energy into the rockies and SSE at hour 96.  big change from 12z run..JUST like the GFS did on the 00z run.

 

There's lot more energy flowing, although I don't think that H5 low is wrapping it in as much.

[deltadog03]

HR108, still HUGE differences at H5 vs the 12z run.  Slower and further SW with the ball of energy. 

[deltadog03]

There's lot more energy flowing, too.

agreed!

[deltadog03]

I wish I could show you all the images of the differences.  LOL  they are tremendous.  Hr 126, 06z WED, The energy is still back to SW, but turning NEG tilt.  This might be a nice SVR wx setup

[Shawn]

Nice and bundled energy too.  Tons of it compared to 12z

[WxBlue]

That H5 low over Upper Mississippi Basin is much weaker and slower. All of that energy is much deeper into southwest away from H5 low, too. Let's see what happens here...

[Shawn]

The is looking like the Euro OP from a few days back where it really dug it down.  Nice if you like stormy weather!

[deltadog03]

YES, somebody would be getting SVR weather if the new EURO is right.  Thats a NASTY jet screaming across the SE.

[Shawn]

I definitely wish I could post an image of the 300mb around hr 132-138.

[WxBlue]

Look at all of that energy fueling that massive "superlow" moving up East Coast.

[deltadog03]

I could also see some snow flakes in the are from HSV to CHA and northward on wed eve thur earrrrrly am

[WxBlue]

I definitely wish I could post an image of the 300mb around hr 132-138.

 

What a nasty jet streak of 120-150 knots. I'm not sure lower winds are quite right for severe weather, but dew points are there for southern Georgia.

[deltadog03]

45kt LLJ by wed am across GA.   110kt at H5, 140kt at 300mb then all heads East Northeast into the Carolinas.  Some potential of the convection robbing us though.  Not as prevalent on the this run, but still VERY possible.

[Shawn]

On top of all of that, there's going to be quite the stiff wind as a whole.  Very interested in the 12z Euro/GFS now.

[WxBlue]

45kt LLJ by wed am across GA.   110kt at H5, 140kt at 300mb then all heads East Northeast into the Carolinas.  Some potential of the convection robbing us though.  Not as prevalent on the this run, but still VERY possible.

 

I would like to see winds little more southerly, but this mean we need more negative tilt. 

[HWY316wx]

6Z GFS Really dropping the cold all the way to the coast Christmas Day early morning.

 

Maybe some flurries in the Northern Alabama / NGA Mountains?

[burgertime]

While last nights runs (outside of the 00z GFS) didn't look great in the LR one thing I'm liking is that yesterday every model had 850 anomalies seasonal in the east for the 6-10 day range (except the Euro) and then well below in the 10-15 day range. I don't buy the Euro wrapped up solution as it has it. I get all the energy floating around I just don't think it all phases to get a super bomb. I'm betting that southern piece doesn't link up with that northern jet....or the southern energy cuts and and phases with one piece of energy for a lakes storm....just don't think it all comes together to make a bomb for the OV. 

[buckeyefan1]

While last nights runs (outside of the 00z GFS) didn't look great in the LR one thing I'm liking is that yesterday every model had 850 anomalies seasonal in the east for the 6-10 day range (except the Euro) and then well below in the 10-15 day range. I don't buy the Euro wrapped up solution as it has it. I get all the energy floating around I just don't think it all phases to get a super bomb. I'm betting that southern piece doesn't link up with that northern jet....or the southern energy cuts and and phases with one piece of energy for a lakes storm....just don't think it all comes together to make a bomb for the OV. 

Triple phaser ftw!